Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>India remains the fastest-growing large economy, with RGDP accelerating to 7.8% YoY growth in Q1FY24. Services (53% of the economy) grew 10.3%YoY, and should enable 7%+ RGDP growth for FY24. </li>
<li>Fixed investment spending grew 8%YoY, the fifth consecutive quarter of 8% or more growth. The improbably large real net export deficit will likely lead to upward revisions to GDP. </li>
<li>The fiscal deficit in Apr-Jul'23 was 33.9% of the FY24 target, even with a massive 54%YoY increase in revenues assigned to states. Latter will shrink in H2FY24, cutting fiscal deficit. </li>
</ul>


India remains the fastest-growing large economy, with RGDP accelerating to 7.8% YoY growth in Q1FY24. Services (53% of the economy) grew 10.3%YoY, and should enable 7%+ RGDP growth for FY24. 
Fixed investment spending grew 8%YoY, the fifth consecutive quarter of 8% or more growth. The improbably large real net export deficit will likely lead to upward revisions to GDP. 
The fiscal deficit in Apr-Jul'23 was 33.9% of the FY24 target, even with a massive 54%YoY increase in revenues assigned to states. Latter will shrink in H2FY24, cutting fiscal deficit. 


India: Robust Economic Momentum Despite Some Seeming Fiscal Deterioration

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.</li>
<li>There will be a few announcements next week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> rebalances on Friday.</li>
<li>Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


The HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.
There will be a few announcements next week with Nikkei 225 early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the STAR50 rebalances on Friday.
Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the CSI 300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> started trading on 21 August following its demerger from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a>. The stock was locked limit down on its first four trading days.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> trackers hold <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> stock and will need to sell over the next few days.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to sell around 188m shares (US$487m) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> next week and the stock could head lower in the short term.</li>
</ul>



Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) started trading on 21 August following its demerger from Reliance Industries (RIL IN). The stock was locked limit down on its first four trading days.
Passive NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) trackers hold Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) stock and will need to sell over the next few days.
We estimate passive trackers will need to sell around 188m shares (US$487m) of Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) next week and the stock could head lower in the short term.


Jio Financial (JIOFIN IN): Upcoming Passive Selling & Timing

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Baring aims to raise around US$900m by selling its remaining 26.6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coforge-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8639:1" rel="noopener">Coforge (COFORGE IN)</a> .</li>
<li>Baring has been paring down its stake since 2020 and hence, the selldown is somewhat well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Baring aims to raise around US$900m by selling its remaining 26.6% stake in Coforge (COFORGE IN) .
Baring has been paring down its stake since 2020 and hence, the selldown is somewhat well flagged.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.


Coforge Placement - US$900m Cleanup, Well Flagged but the Stock Is Toppish

<ul>
<li>National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. </li>
<li>The deal will be run by ISec, Axis Capital, HSBC, IDBI, Motilal and SBI Caps.</li>
<li>It IS the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.</li>
</ul>


National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. 
The deal will be run by ISec, Axis Capital, HSBC, IDBI, Motilal and SBI Caps.
It IS the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.


National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

India

The S&P BSE Sensex Index is a cap-weighted index. The index members have been selected on the basis of liquidity, depth, and floating-stock-adjustment depth and industry representation. Sensex has a base date and value of 100 in 1978-1979. The Index shifted to free-float methodology since 09/01/03. Please see {SNSXOLD Index <GO>} for mid-month options.

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

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S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

India: Robust Economic Momentum Despite Some Seeming Fiscal Deterioration

Services (53% of GDP) grew 10.3%YoY in Apr-Jun'23, and should grow 8.5% for the full year. Manufacturing to grow 6%+, benefiting from a low base in...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Jio Financial (JIOFIN IN): Upcoming Passive Selling & Timing

After trading limit down for 4 days, Jio Financial finally traded off the limit on Friday. We estimate passive trackers will need to sell 187.63m...

Brian Freitas

Coforge Placement - US$900m Cleanup, Well Flagged but the Stock Is Toppish

Baring aims to raise around US$900m by selling its remaining 26.6% stake in Coforge (COFORGE IN) . In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics...

Sumeet Singh

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. It is the largest depository in India.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)