Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Merchandise exports grew 11.9%YoY in Feb'24 (+7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb'24) amid a broad-based rebound in engineering, pharma, chemical, electronic exports. With exports outpacing imports, the merchandise deficit declined 8.2%YoY in Apr'23-Feb'24. </li>
<li>Services exports are robust, with many hitherto-imported services also moving onshore. The services trade surplus widened 20%YoY in Apr'23-Jan'24, likely enabling the FY24 CAD to shrink to 0.6% of GDP.</li>
<li>With goods exports set to accelerate, and crude oil prices relatively tame, we expect the current account to swing to a surplus in CY24 (and +0.5% of GDP in FY25). </li>
</ul>


Merchandise exports grew 11.9%YoY in Feb'24 (+7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb'24) amid a broad-based rebound in engineering, pharma, chemical, electronic exports. With exports outpacing imports, the merchandise deficit declined 8.2%YoY in Apr'23-Feb'24. 
Services exports are robust, with many hitherto-imported services also moving onshore. The services trade surplus widened 20%YoY in Apr'23-Jan'24, likely enabling the FY24 CAD to shrink to 0.6% of GDP.
With goods exports set to accelerate, and crude oil prices relatively tame, we expect the current account to swing to a surplus in CY24 (and +0.5% of GDP in FY25). 


India: Merchandise and Services Both Help Toward a CA Surplus in CY24

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Tata Consultancy Svcs / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-sons-private-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25999:1" rel="noopener">Tata Sons</a>, holding company of Tata Group, is looking to raise around US$1.1bn via selling a 0.65% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a>.</li>
<li>The deal doesn’t appear to be well-flagged although it could be part of Tata Sons’ recent moves to avoid an RBI mandated listing next year.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Tata Sons, holding company of Tata Group, is looking to raise around US$1.1bn via selling a 0.65% stake in Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN).
The deal doesn’t appear to be well-flagged although it could be part of Tata Sons’ recent moves to avoid an RBI mandated listing next year.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


TCS US$1.1bn Placement - Relatively Small but Isn’t Well Flagged, Could Have Implications for Others

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, Hong Kong appears to be heading towards its first US$100m+ IPO for the year.</li>
<li>For placements, after a flurry of placements in the prior week, past week was relatively quiet with only the US$2bn <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> block.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Hong Kong appears to be heading towards its first US$100m+ IPO for the year.
For placements, after a flurry of placements in the prior week, past week was relatively quiet with only the US$2bn ITC Ltd (ITC IN) block.


ECM Weekly (18th Mar 2024) - ITC, Interglobe (Indigo), MS&AD, GlobalWafer, Belle, Auntea, Trial

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/british-american-tobacco-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21828:1" rel="noopener">British American Tobacco (BATS LN)</a> owns 29.03% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> and could sell a portion of its stake. But BAT will hold at least 25% of the company.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/british-american-tobacco-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21828:1" rel="noopener">British American Tobacco (BATS LN)</a> paring its stake could also lead to SUUTI gradually reducing its own holding in the company.</li>
<li>Any stake sales would not result in buying from global passive trackers while there will be small buying from local index trackers. Increased float could pressure the stock.</li>
</ul>



British American Tobacco (BATS LN) owns 29.03% of ITC Ltd (ITC IN) and could sell a portion of its stake. But BAT will hold at least 25% of the company.

British American Tobacco (BATS LN) paring its stake could also lead to SUUTI gradually reducing its own holding in the company.
Any stake sales would not result in buying from global passive trackers while there will be small buying from local index trackers. Increased float could pressure the stock.


ITC Ltd (ITC IN): Impact of BAT's Potential Stake Sale

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review at how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions  added or removed  from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review at how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions  added or removed  from the thematic investment portfolio


February Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

India

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S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

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S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

India: Merchandise and Services Both Help Toward a CA Surplus in CY24

Goods exports grew 7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb24, leading to a decline in the merchandise deficit. With the services surplus up 20%YoY, a swing to a...

Prasenjit K. Basu

TCS US$1.1bn Placement - Relatively Small but Isn’t Well Flagged, Could Have Implications for Others

Tata Sons, holding company of Tata Group, is looking to raise around US$1.1bn via selling a 0.65% stake in Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN).

Sumeet Singh

ECM Weekly (18th Mar 2024) - ITC, Interglobe (Indigo), MS&AD, GlobalWafer, Belle, Auntea, Trial

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

ITC Ltd (ITC IN): Impact of BAT's Potential Stake Sale

Multiple media outlets reporting that British American Tobacco are looking at selling part of their stake in ITC as early as this week. The reports...

Brian Freitas

February Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and subtractions in the thematic investment portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: Merchandise and Services Both Help Toward a CA Surplus in CY24

​Goods exports grew 7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb24, leading to a decline in the merchandise deficit. With the services surplus up 20%YoY, a swing to a...

Prasenjit K. Basu

TCS US$1.1bn Placement - Relatively Small but Isn’t Well Flagged, Could Have Implications for Others

Tata Sons, holding company of Tata Group, is looking to raise around US$1.1bn via selling a 0.65% stake in Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN).

Sumeet Singh

ECM Weekly (18th Mar 2024) - ITC, Interglobe (Indigo), MS&AD, GlobalWafer, Belle, Auntea, Trial

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

ITC Ltd (ITC IN): Impact of BAT's Potential Stake Sale

Multiple media outlets reporting that British American Tobacco are looking at selling part of their stake in ITC as early as this week. The reports...

Brian Freitas

February Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and subtractions in the thematic investment portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Goods exports grew 7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb24, leading to a decline in the merchandise deficit. With the services surplus up 20%YoY, a swing to a...