Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aventus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25897:1" rel="noopener">Aventus Group (AVN AU)</a> securityholders vote on the proposed merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/home-consortium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29082:1" rel="noopener">Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU)</a> on 25 January.</li>
<li>If approved, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aventus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25897:1" rel="noopener">Aventus Group (AVN AU)</a> will stop trading after the close on 3 February and the shares in issue for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)</a> will increase substantially.</li>
<li>That will make <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HDN AU</a> the highest ranked non-ASX200 constituent and a high probability add for March. There could be an earlier inclusion to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">SYD AU</a> in the index.</li>
</ul>



Aventus Group (AVN AU) securityholders vote on the proposed merger with HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)/ Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU) on 25 January.
If approved, Aventus Group (AVN AU) will stop trading after the close on 3 February and the shares in issue for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU) will increase substantially.
That will make HDN AU the highest ranked non-ASX200 constituent and a high probability add for March. There could be an earlier inclusion to replace SYD AU in the index.


HDN/AVN Merger & Potential ASX200 Inclusion in March (Or Earlier)

<ul>
<li>As expected, S&amp;P DJI have announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>'s weight in the S&amp;P/ASX indices will be increased all at once at the close of trading on 28 January. </li>
<li>We estimated passive S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy over A$4bn of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> leading to a funding sell of that size on the other index constituents.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> has risen 25% from its lows in November. We expect most UK shareholders have finished selling shares and the one-shot inclusion could take the stock higher.</li>
</ul>


As expected, S&amp;P DJI have announced that BHP Group (BHP AU)'s weight in the S&amp;P/ASX indices will be increased all at once at the close of trading on 28 January. 
We estimated passive S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy over A$4bn of BHP Group (BHP AU) leading to a funding sell of that size on the other index constituents.

BHP Group (BHP AU) has risen 25% from its lows in November. We expect most UK shareholders have finished selling shares and the one-shot inclusion could take the stock higher.


BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes to the ASX100 and ASX200 prior to the March rebalance due to the acquisitions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>. </li>
<li>There will also be the large <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> upweight and funding trade following unification, and possibly the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26940:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Touch (APT AU)</a> acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23755:1" rel="noopener">Square Inc (SQ US)</a>. </li>
<li>Then there will be more changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 at the March rebalance. There could be a lot of new listings included in the ASX300.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes to the ASX100 and ASX200 prior to the March rebalance due to the acquisitions of Ausnet Services (AST AU) and Sydney Airport (SYD AU). 
There will also be the large BHP Group (BHP AU) upweight and funding trade following unification, and possibly the Afterpay Touch (APT AU) acquisition by Square Inc (SQ US). 
Then there will be more changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 at the March rebalance. There could be a lot of new listings included in the ASX300.


ASX100/​200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Australian stock market has started the year with a decent pop through good levels amounting to a bullish breakout</li>
<li>The setup argues for a rally of 3% to new highs which could be seen in the days ahead</li>
<li>Additional developments in commodities and the currency also suggest a brighter outlook in the short term</li>
</ul>


The Australian stock market has started the year with a decent pop through good levels amounting to a bullish breakout
The setup argues for a rally of 3% to new highs which could be seen in the days ahead
Additional developments in commodities and the currency also suggest a brighter outlook in the short term


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Australia and Taiwan have been top long picks with Korea the underdog to eventually clear the 400 barrier. H shares on the back burner. KLSE meeting our rally turn target.</li>
<li>Asia top short picks are are HSI and Japan's Nikkei. Nifty re short zone near key resistance after meeting our 16,500 bounce target. STI a short into near term strength.</li>
<li>January allows for a pullback sequence that sets up fresh buy levels in Asia for a push into February/March.</li>
</ul>


Australia and Taiwan have been top long picks with Korea the underdog to eventually clear the 400 barrier. H shares on the back burner. KLSE meeting our rally turn target.
Asia top short picks are are HSI and Japan's Nikkei. Nifty re short zone near key resistance after meeting our 16,500 bounce target. STI a short into near term strength.
January allows for a pullback sequence that sets up fresh buy levels in Asia for a push into February/March.


Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

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The breakout in Australia's stock market looks encouraging especially when coupled with indications in other related markets.

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Asia Long and Short Bets

Australia and Taiwan have been top long picks with Korea the underdog to eventually clear the 400 barrier. H shares on the back burner. KLSE...

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HDN/AVN Merger & Potential ASX200 Inclusion in March (Or Earlier)

Aventus shareholders vote on the proposed merger with HDN/HMC on 25 Jan. Approval by AVN shareholders will see a huge increase in shares out on HDN...

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BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

The BHP upweight in the ASX indices will be done all at once at the close on 28 January. This will mean A$4bn of BHP to buy and a funding sell on...

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ASX100/​200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

There will be many changes to the ASX100/200/300 indices from now to March due to M&A activity & price moves. Plus a large funding trade following...

Brian Freitas

Australia’s Bullish Prospects

The breakout in Australia's stock market looks encouraging especially when coupled with indications in other related markets.

Shyam Devani

Asia Long and Short Bets

Australia and Taiwan have been top long picks with Korea the underdog to eventually clear the 400 barrier. H shares on the back burner. KLSE...

Thomas Schroeder

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March