Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. </li>
<li>Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. </li>
<li>Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. </li>
</ul>


The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. 
Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. 
Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. 


EQD | US Election -  Hedge Considerations

<ul>
<li>Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. </li>
<li>Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.</li>
<li>November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. </li>
</ul>


Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. 
Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.
November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. 


EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> is currently up 3 weeks and OVERBOUGHT, a correction is expected very soon, probably this week. </li>
<li>The pullback is an opportunity to add LONG positions, the area to enter LONG is 7400-7300. </li>
<li>If the rally continues after the pullback, it can continue into the end of January.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX is currently up 3 weeks and OVERBOUGHT, a correction is expected very soon, probably this week. 
The pullback is an opportunity to add LONG positions, the area to enter LONG is 7400-7300. 
If the rally continues after the pullback, it can continue into the end of January.


EQD | S&P/ASX200 Pullback This Week: Where to Re-Enter LONG?

<ul>
<li>3 main APAC markets (Nifty, Kospi 200 and ASX200) are very OVERBOUGHT.</li>
<li>A WEEKLY pullback (1 week down) is expected this coming week, or the next.</li>
<li>The pullback should be short-lived and last just 1 week, then the rally should resume.</li>
</ul>


3 main APAC markets (Nifty, Kospi 200 and ASX200) are very OVERBOUGHT.
A WEEKLY pullback (1 week down) is expected this coming week, or the next.
The pullback should be short-lived and last just 1 week, then the rally should resume.


EQD | ULTRAOVERBOUGHT APAC Markets, SHORT Targets

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>'s transformational merger with Chemist Warehouse is pending ACCC approval. ACCC is expected to announce its findings on 7 November.</li>
<li>If approvals from ACCC, NZ OIO and others are obtained, the merger could complete early 2025 and the MergeCo will have a market cap of around A$21.7bn.</li>
<li>That means upward migrations for MergoCo in the S&amp;P/ASX indices and as well as global indices. There will be significant impact on MergeCo from passive tracker buying.</li>
</ul>



Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)'s transformational merger with Chemist Warehouse is pending ACCC approval. ACCC is expected to announce its findings on 7 November.
If approvals from ACCC, NZ OIO and others are obtained, the merger could complete early 2025 and the MergeCo will have a market cap of around A$21.7bn.
That means upward migrations for MergoCo in the S&amp;P/ASX indices and as well as global indices. There will be significant impact on MergeCo from passive tracker buying.


Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/ Chemist Warehouse Merger: Over US$1bn to Buy; Timing Is Important

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Pullback This Week: Where to Re-Enter LONG?

The ASX 200 INDEX is overbought and a correction is expected soon, presenting a chance to add LONG positions in the 7400-7300 range. After the...

Nico Rosti

EQD | ULTRAOVERBOUGHT APAC Markets, SHORT Targets

APAC markets (Nifty, Kospi 200, ASX200) are overbought, we are expecting a short-lived WEEKLY pullback before the Christmas Rally can continue.

Nico Rosti

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/ Chemist Warehouse Merger: Over US$1bn to Buy; Timing Is Important

ACCC announces on 7 November. If the merger is approved, there will be over US$1.1bn to buy in Sigma Healthcare - timing is important. If ACCC does...

Brian Freitas

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

​The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

​Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Pullback This Week: Where to Re-Enter LONG?

​The ASX 200 INDEX is overbought and a correction is expected soon, presenting a chance to add LONG positions in the 7400-7300 range. After the...

Nico Rosti

EQD | ULTRAOVERBOUGHT APAC Markets, SHORT Targets

​APAC markets (Nifty, Kospi 200, ASX200) are overbought, we are expecting a short-lived WEEKLY pullback before the Christmas Rally can continue.

Nico Rosti

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/ Chemist Warehouse Merger: Over US$1bn to Buy; Timing Is Important

ACCC announces on 7 November. If the merger is approved, there will be over US$1.1bn to buy in Sigma Healthcare - timing is important. If ACCC does...

Brian Freitas

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

The ASX 200 INDEX is overbought and a correction is expected soon, presenting a chance to add LONG positions in the 7400-7300 range. After the...

APAC markets (Nifty, Kospi 200, ASX200) are overbought, we are expecting a short-lived WEEKLY pullback before the Christmas Rally can continue.