Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>M2 contracted 1.3%YoY in Dec'22, its first YoY contraction in 80+ years. Since core PCE inflation was still 4.4%YoY that month, more monetary contraction is needed.  </li>
<li>The 10yr-2yr yield spread is -0.76pp (10th Feb'23), while ISM manufacturing new orders have slipped to 42.5, both unequivocally signaling that recession will likely begin next quarter (Q2 2023). </li>
<li>US real GDP decelerated for 4 consecutive quarters (to +1%YoY in 4Q2022), but the labour market appears tight merely because the participation rate is 4pp lower than 2008.</li>
</ul>


M2 contracted 1.3%YoY in Dec'22, its first YoY contraction in 80+ years. Since core PCE inflation was still 4.4%YoY that month, more monetary contraction is needed.  
The 10yr-2yr yield spread is -0.76pp (10th Feb'23), while ISM manufacturing new orders have slipped to 42.5, both unequivocally signaling that recession will likely begin next quarter (Q2 2023). 
US real GDP decelerated for 4 consecutive quarters (to +1%YoY in 4Q2022), but the labour market appears tight merely because the participation rate is 4pp lower than 2008.


US: Recession Imminent, as M2 Needs to Contract Further to Squeeze Out Inflation

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Liquidity trends are RAPIDLY on the rise in China and Japan in contrast to the West</li>
<li>Global liquidity probably bottomed in November unless BoJ turns around soon</li>
<li>The PBoC is currently helping global equities perform via new liquidity/credit</li>
</ul>


Liquidity trends are RAPIDLY on the rise in China and Japan in contrast to the West
Global liquidity probably bottomed in November unless BoJ turns around soon
The PBoC is currently helping global equities perform via new liquidity/credit


Macro Strategy– Has Global Liquidity (And the Equity Market) Bottomed Already?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The stage is set for an equity/risk off decline after the SPX met our 4,200 rally objective as have Asian and European indices.</li>
<li>We are treating the DXY 101 low as a key USD turn support that will see dollar upside follow through on the back of a bullish 10 yr yield breakout.</li>
<li>Equity weakness due from mid- Feb into Q2. NDX is hovering near pivotal lows (tech/growth U/P). Scales are tipped toward new lows.</li>
</ul>


The stage is set for an equity/risk off decline after the SPX met our 4,200 rally objective as have Asian and European indices.
We are treating the DXY 101 low as a key USD turn support that will see dollar upside follow through on the back of a bullish 10 yr yield breakout.
Equity weakness due from mid- Feb into Q2. NDX is hovering near pivotal lows (tech/growth U/P). Scales are tipped toward new lows.


Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

<ul>
<li>In this CPI ‘preview’ we’ll turn to our charts trying to align expectations to select indicators.</li>
<li>We see inflation coming in lower than expected again both in headline- and core terms</li>
<li>USD could weaken, while positive vibes could resurface around global equities </li>
</ul>


In this CPI ‘preview’ we’ll turn to our charts trying to align expectations to select indicators.
We see inflation coming in lower than expected again both in headline- and core terms
USD could weaken, while positive vibes could resurface around global equities 


US Inflation Watch – Charts, Charts, Charts

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US: Recession Imminent, as M2 Needs to Contract Further to Squeeze Out Inflation

Despite the 1st YoY M2 contraction YoY in 80+ years, core PCE inflation is double the Fed target. More M2 contraction will drag the US to recession...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Macro Strategy– Has Global Liquidity (And the Equity Market) Bottomed Already?

JPY and CNY liquidity is on the RISE, which has turned the tide on “global liquidity”. Global liquidity bottomed in November, which ought to be...

Steno Research

SPX 4,200 Risk off Drivers

The stage is set for an equity/risk off decline after the SPX met our 4,200 rally objective as have Asian and European indices.

Thomas Schroeder

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

US Inflation Watch – Charts, Charts, Charts

We bet economists and traders are on the edge of their seats awaiting the coming US CPI-print. In this ‘preview’ we’ll turn to our charts trying to...

Steno Research