Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.</li>
<li>We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.</li>
</ul>


Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.
We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.


Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Our simple regression analysis yields an S&amp;P 500 Index estimate of 3,710, or 18% lower than the last closing price of 4,515 based on the latest ISM Manufacturing number.</li>
<li>An ISM Manufacturing Index of 56.5., which means the economy must boom, starkly contrasting with the initial signs of a cooling labor market.</li>
<li>If a ‘soft landing’ occurs, our S&amp;P 500 estimate with an ISM of 52 equals 3,990, 12% lower than the current closing price.</li>
</ul>


Our simple regression analysis yields an S&amp;P 500 Index estimate of 3,710, or 18% lower than the last closing price of 4,515 based on the latest ISM Manufacturing number.
An ISM Manufacturing Index of 56.5., which means the economy must boom, starkly contrasting with the initial signs of a cooling labor market.
If a ‘soft landing’ occurs, our S&amp;P 500 estimate with an ISM of 52 equals 3,990, 12% lower than the current closing price.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat. </li>
<li>This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat. </li>
<li>We discuss the latest developments surrounding Bitcoin and a spot Bitcoin ETF. While approval odds steadily rise, low attention and trading volumes reveal that investors are preoccupied with AI. </li>
</ul>


This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat. 
This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat. 
We discuss the latest developments surrounding Bitcoin and a spot Bitcoin ETF. While approval odds steadily rise, low attention and trading volumes reveal that investors are preoccupied with AI. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Spending Pressure, Labor Lull, and Bitcoin Fatigue

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Welcome back yet again to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 of the topics that we follow in global macro this week.</li>
<li>We are in the middle of a hectic week for markets (as usual), with German Ifo numbers signaling a slowing economy in Germany, whilst EU CPI data tomorrow will paint European markets and give us a hint about what the ECB will do next.</li>
<li>In the US it’s fair to say that this week is all about the labor market, which is THE thing to watch in order to understand what the Fed will do next as the tight labor market is one of the main areas of interest for Powell.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back yet again to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 of the topics that we follow in global macro this week.
We are in the middle of a hectic week for markets (as usual), with German Ifo numbers signaling a slowing economy in Germany, whilst EU CPI data tomorrow will paint European markets and give us a hint about what the ECB will do next.
In the US it’s fair to say that this week is all about the labor market, which is THE thing to watch in order to understand what the Fed will do next as the tight labor market is one of the main areas of interest for Powell.


5 Things We Watch – EU Inflation, US Labor Market, European Money Growth, UK Stagflation & IFO

<ul>
<li>It’s been an ongoing struggle to be on the receiving end of rates for a couple of years and we generally find the rule of thumb to be the following: Don’t ever tactically buy bonds / receive rates until the last hike is in.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: Inflation momentum is softening the most in Europe (also given today’s data)</li>
<li>GBP rates looks like the best receiver case among majors</li>
</ul>


It’s been an ongoing struggle to be on the receiving end of rates for a couple of years and we generally find the rule of thumb to be the following: Don’t ever tactically buy bonds / receive rates until the last hike is in.
Conclusions up front: Inflation momentum is softening the most in Europe (also given today’s data)
GBP rates looks like the best receiver case among majors


Rates Watch: Anything Weak Enough to Receive?

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

Expectations over the past two weeks for an oversold bounce in $SPX have played out. 4300-4325 (1.5-year support) remains solid floor, but could...

Vermilion Research

The S&P 500 Index Needs a Macro Miracle!

It would require a massive spike in the ISM Manufacturing Index and, hence, a boom in the US economy to remove the vast amount of equity market...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Spending Pressure, Labor Lull, and Bitcoin Fatigue

Wage growth vs. excess savings. Will the US labor market start to weaken and cause a recession? Grayscale vs. the SEC and what it means for Bitcoin.

Jeroen Blokland

5 Things We Watch – EU Inflation, US Labor Market, European Money Growth, UK Stagflation & IFO

Welcome back yet again to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 of the topics that we follow in global macro this week.

Steno Research

Rates Watch: Anything Weak Enough to Receive?

It’s been an ongoing struggle to be on the receiving end of rates for a couple of years and we generally find the rule of thumb to be the...

Steno Research