Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US headline inflation disappointed. But the underlying CPI data is less concerning than the headline inflation rate suggests.</li>
<li>This means another Fed rate hike is now de facto dependent on oil prices and Saudi Arabia. Not where you want to be as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.</li>
<li>Historically, stocks perform well following a peak in inflation, but historical performance has been entirely priced in with a return of almost 18% since last year’s peak. </li>
</ul>


US headline inflation disappointed. But the underlying CPI data is less concerning than the headline inflation rate suggests.
This means another Fed rate hike is now de facto dependent on oil prices and Saudi Arabia. Not where you want to be as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Historically, stocks perform well following a peak in inflation, but historical performance has been entirely priced in with a return of almost 18% since last year’s peak. 


Saudi Arabia Is Now in Charge of the Federal Reserve

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 3.6% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 1.3%) and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.4%), but in line with the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.6%).</li><li>Energy Technology (14.9% of the index) contributed to the index’s underperformance, falling 3.7%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (6.5% of the index) was down 2.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.7% and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 5.3%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: ALLIF, NILI, GTEC, HYSR, FE, ETL, LNZA, LBNK, NGPHF, FNI</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 3.6% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 1.3%) and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.4%), but in line with the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.6%).Energy Technology (14.9% of the index) contributed to the index’s underperformance, falling 3.7%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (6.5% of the index) was down 2.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.7% and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 5.3%.Top 10 Performers: ALLIF, NILI, GTEC, HYSR, FE, ETL, LNZA, LBNK, NGPHF, FNI

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended September 8, 2023

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>In a week where the USD is celebrating its longest rally streak in 9 years with 8 consecutive weeks of outperforming currency peers, it’s noteworthy how both commodities have remained resilient and energy managed to rally</li>
<li>Not only does this reinforce our US bull case, but it also lends support to my recent bearish stance on emerging markets</li>
<li>US imports being down some 5% on a YoY basis for Q2 is not exactly helping struggling players here either.</li>
</ul>


In a week where the USD is celebrating its longest rally streak in 9 years with 8 consecutive weeks of outperforming currency peers, it’s noteworthy how both commodities have remained resilient and energy managed to rally
Not only does this reinforce our US bull case, but it also lends support to my recent bearish stance on emerging markets
US imports being down some 5% on a YoY basis for Q2 is not exactly helping struggling players here either.


Positioning Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball & Oil’s Roaring Rally

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Why did the seemingly marginally negative Apple news coming from China erase a whopping USD 200 billion in market cap? </li>
<li>It seems like the US labor market has wrongfooted investors again, judging from the latest ISM Services and claims data.</li>
<li>The Chinese Yuan has also rejoined its downward trend after a brief revival, and this does not bode well for equities.</li>
</ul>


Why did the seemingly marginally negative Apple news coming from China erase a whopping USD 200 billion in market cap? 
It seems like the US labor market has wrongfooted investors again, judging from the latest ISM Services and claims data.
The Chinese Yuan has also rejoined its downward trend after a brief revival, and this does not bode well for equities.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Valuation Woes and Currency Moves

<div><div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p>WTR-CMI year to date. As we enter the final month of the third quarter, our index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 and the Russell 2000 on both a YTD and Y/Y basis.</p></li><li><p>With most of the margin improvement benefit having played out over the course of 2022 and into 1Q23, stock performance of companies in our sector has been largely driven by market- and industry-specific dynamics and their effects on respective companies.</p></li><li><p>Thus, weaker pricing and customer inventory drawdowns affected the performance of FMC and AVD, which are both down more than 30% YTD. </p></li></ul></div></div></div>

WTR-CMI year to date. As we enter the final month of the third quarter, our index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 and the Russell 2000 on both a YTD and Y/Y basis.With most of the margin improvement benefit having played out over the course of 2022 and into 1Q23, stock performance of companies in our sector has been largely driven by market- and industry-specific dynamics and their effects on respective companies.Thus, weaker pricing and customer inventory drawdowns affected the performance of FMC and AVD, which are both down more than 30% YTD. 

Mat-Chem Notes - For the Week Ended September 1, 2023

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Saudi Arabia Is Now in Charge of the Federal Reserve

Whether the Fed hikes again largely depends on Saudi Arabia and oil and energy prices, all outside Powell's span of control.

Jeroen Blokland

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended September 8, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 3.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.3%) and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.4%)

Water Tower Research

Positioning Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball & Oil’s Roaring Rally

In a week where the USD is celebrating its longest rally streak in 9 years with 8 consecutive weeks of outperforming currency peers, it’s...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Valuation Woes and Currency Moves

Apple erasing USD 200 billion in market cap on marginally negative news confirms (US) Equities are priced for perfection.

Jeroen Blokland

Mat-Chem Notes - For the Week Ended September 1, 2023

As we enter the final month of the third quarter, our index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks has underperformed the S&P 500 and the...

Water Tower Research