Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback</li>
<li>Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).</li>
<li>The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback
Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.


Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Although high interest rates may not immediately lead to debt servicing issues for companies, each month that elevated yields prevail will significantly impact the ratio between profits and debt servicing.</li>
<li>The good news is that the maturity wall, the ‘timetable’ for debt refinancing, is unlikely to cause much volatility.</li>
<li>However, companies must continue generating enough income to cover the (higher) interest payments.  But our bellwether earnings indicator points to a significant drop in profits in the coming quarters. </li>
</ul>


Although high interest rates may not immediately lead to debt servicing issues for companies, each month that elevated yields prevail will significantly impact the ratio between profits and debt servicing.
The good news is that the maturity wall, the ‘timetable’ for debt refinancing, is unlikely to cause much volatility.
However, companies must continue generating enough income to cover the (higher) interest payments.  But our bellwether earnings indicator points to a significant drop in profits in the coming quarters. 


The Corporate Interest Burden – It's All About Earnings!

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Optimism peaks before a downturn. Risk strikes when you least expect it. Human brains are tricked by non-linearity of recessions.</li>
<li>Monetary policy transmission takes time, lulling many to falsely believe that consumers and corporates are resilient.</li>
<li>Despite raft of risk narratives, a soft landing may still be possible. But with myriad risk vectors playing out in parallel makes the chance of soft landing slim.</li>
</ul>


Optimism peaks before a downturn. Risk strikes when you least expect it. Human brains are tricked by non-linearity of recessions.
Monetary policy transmission takes time, lulling many to falsely believe that consumers and corporates are resilient.
Despite raft of risk narratives, a soft landing may still be possible. But with myriad risk vectors playing out in parallel makes the chance of soft landing slim.


Risk Strikes When Least Expected. How Risk-Resistant Is Your Portfolio?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>We have taken a look at the data over the course of the last five stand-offs between Israel and Hamas/Palestine on the back of the atrocious scenes unfolding in the region over the course of the weekend.</li><li>We hope and pray for a peaceful outcome and send our thoughts and prayers to hostages and impacted civilians.</li><li>We consider an escalation involving Iran to be the biggest market risk right now and will release our geopolitical analysis shortly.</li></ul>

We have taken a look at the data over the course of the last five stand-offs between Israel and Hamas/Palestine on the back of the atrocious scenes unfolding in the region over the course of the weekend.We hope and pray for a peaceful outcome and send our thoughts and prayers to hostages and impacted civilians.We consider an escalation involving Iran to be the biggest market risk right now and will release our geopolitical analysis shortly.

Macro Nugget: How do markets react to turmoil in Gaza/Israel?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>We’re here again for our weekly Portfolio Watch, and I must admit, it’s been a rather challenging week.</li><li>We found ourselves on the wrong side of the equity spread between CRAK and IYT. It’s ironic, really, as we initially thought the main risk was being fashionably late to the party.</li><li>Alas, it was the crack spreads that unexpectedly threw us off balance.</li></ul>

We’re here again for our weekly Portfolio Watch, and I must admit, it’s been a rather challenging week.We found ourselves on the wrong side of the equity spread between CRAK and IYT. It’s ironic, really, as we initially thought the main risk was being fashionably late to the party.Alas, it was the crack spreads that unexpectedly threw us off balance.

Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

The Corporate Interest Burden – It's All About Earnings!

It is not so much the maturity wall that causes debt servicing issues but earnings that are destined to decline in the coming quarters.

Jeroen Blokland

Risk Strikes When Least Expected. How Risk-Resistant Is Your Portfolio?

Not one but many storms are brewing. Worsening Geo-politics, US Sovereign Fears, and Tightening Financial Conditions could unleash havoc, sending...

Mint Finance

Macro Nugget: How do markets react to turmoil in Gaza/Israel?

We have taken a look at the data over the course of the last five stand-offs between Israel and Hamas/Palestine on the back of the atrocious...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender

We’re here again for our weekly Portfolio Watch, and I must admit, it’s been a rather challenging week. We found ourselves on the wrong side of the...

Steno Research