Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We expect the Fed Funds rate to decline a minimum of 50bp this year, starting with a 25bp cut in Jun'24. Consequently, bonds are likely to generate solidly positive returns. </li>
<li>Despite M2 contracting YoY for 12 months, core inflation still remains too deeply entrenched, and will consequently not allow any earlier easing. But a slower economy will help rein-in inflation. </li>
<li>The S&amp;P500's CAPE ratio is 32.27x, nearly double its mean of 17.07x, so equities are likely to struggle in Q1CY24. We recommend being Overweight Bonds and Underweight Equities this quarter. </li>
</ul>


We expect the Fed Funds rate to decline a minimum of 50bp this year, starting with a 25bp cut in Jun'24. Consequently, bonds are likely to generate solidly positive returns. 
Despite M2 contracting YoY for 12 months, core inflation still remains too deeply entrenched, and will consequently not allow any earlier easing. But a slower economy will help rein-in inflation. 
The S&amp;P500's CAPE ratio is 32.27x, nearly double its mean of 17.07x, so equities are likely to struggle in Q1CY24. We recommend being Overweight Bonds and Underweight Equities this quarter. 


US: Increase Weight in Bonds Vs Equities in the Early Part of 2024

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Inflation across the US, UK and Japan slowed sharply on the back of declining goods prices.</li>
<li>Rapidly cooling inflation brings into focus the diverging central bank policies - BoJ remains ultra-loose, Fed has turned dovish, while BoE continues to remain hawkish.</li>
<li>Personal spending in the US remains strong, providing upside to economic growth in Q4, but also risk of higher inflation.</li>
</ul>


Inflation across the US, UK and Japan slowed sharply on the back of declining goods prices.
Rapidly cooling inflation brings into focus the diverging central bank policies - BoJ remains ultra-loose, Fed has turned dovish, while BoE continues to remain hawkish.
Personal spending in the US remains strong, providing upside to economic growth in Q4, but also risk of higher inflation.


Mint Macro Roundup: Inflation Cools in US, UK, & Japan Accentuating Central Bank Policy Divergence

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>After the latest data, our earnings bellwether is back to zero, suggesting company earnings may be off the hook for big declines. That would be different this time.</li>
<li>Our Fair Value estimate of the 10-year US Treasury is dropping like a stone, yet the gap with the actual yield remains strikingly large. ‘term premium aficionados’ are likely wrong.</li>
<li>We look at a bunch of US housing and consumer data and must conclude that the odds of an imminent recession are shrinking.</li>
</ul>


After the latest data, our earnings bellwether is back to zero, suggesting company earnings may be off the hook for big declines. That would be different this time.
Our Fair Value estimate of the 10-year US Treasury is dropping like a stone, yet the gap with the actual yield remains strikingly large. ‘term premium aficionados’ are likely wrong.
We look at a bunch of US housing and consumer data and must conclude that the odds of an imminent recession are shrinking.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Bye-Bye OPEC, Hello Liquidity, and Welcome Back Earnings!

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!

<ul>
<li>China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.</li>
<li>The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.</li>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator - 200-day moving averages - looks prettier every day.</li>
</ul>


China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.
The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.
Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator - 200-day moving averages - looks prettier every day.


The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There's Jay Powell!

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US: Increase Weight in Bonds Vs Equities in the Early Part of 2024

Core inflation remains entrenched despite a year of YoY decline in M2. But we expect 50bp of rate cuts in 2024, starting with 25bp in Jun'24. We...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Mint Macro Roundup: Inflation Cools in US, UK, & Japan Accentuating Central Bank Policy Divergence

Inflation falls sharply in the US, UK and Japan. With inflation on the decline, central banks faced with navigating diverging economic outlooks....

Mint Finance

The Weekly Market Monitor – Bye-Bye OPEC, Hello Liquidity, and Welcome Back Earnings!

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There's Jay Powell!

China is throwing more liquidity at its real estate sector to save it. Powell is the new top dove while Europe struggles.

Jeroen Blokland