Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Bond market volatility continues to lead all markets lower, triggering a further round of deleveraging.</li>
<li>Cryptos have been crushed and Credit markets appear to have hit capitulation, even if equities have not.</li>
<li>FX volatility, especially in the Yen, is also causing, as well as reflecting, distress in terms of forced buying/distressed selling and is being exaggerated by the (VaR) volatility based risk management models that trigger further deleveraging of balance sheets.</li>
</ul>


Bond market volatility continues to lead all markets lower, triggering a further round of deleveraging.
Cryptos have been crushed and Credit markets appear to have hit capitulation, even if equities have not.
FX volatility, especially in the Yen, is also causing, as well as reflecting, distress in terms of forced buying/distressed selling and is being exaggerated by the (VaR) volatility based risk management models that trigger further deleveraging of balance sheets.


Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

<ul>
<li>Heading into yesterday’s Fed meeting, the bond market asked a tough question to Powell: do you mean business?</li>
<li>Powell took a ‘’Bad Cop, Good Cop’’ stance: he answered with a firm ‘’Yes’’ at first, and then tried to soften the message during the press conference.</li>
<li>This spurred a relief rally in risk assets, but it won’t last. Bond markets hate half-hearted stances, and they will keep testing the Fed and risk assets until they get what they want: clarity.</li>
</ul>


Heading into yesterday’s Fed meeting, the bond market asked a tough question to Powell: do you mean business?
Powell took a ‘’Bad Cop, Good Cop’’ stance: he answered with a firm ‘’Yes’’ at first, and then tried to soften the message during the press conference.
This spurred a relief rally in risk assets, but it won’t last. Bond markets hate half-hearted stances, and they will keep testing the Fed and risk assets until they get what they want: clarity.


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The FOMC hiked its policy Fed Funds rate by 75bp on 15 Jun'22, the sharpest single hike in 28 years, taking the central rate to 1.625% (official range of 1.5-1.75%).</li>
<li>With headline CPI inflation at 8.6%YoY in May'22, and wage inflation at 5.2%, inflationary expectations needed to be nipped in the bud, and the Fed has finally taken decisive action.</li>
<li>We expect the FF rate to reach 3% by Sep'22, then rise more sedately. This will induce a shallow recession by Mar'24. We are bullish on a 6-month view.</li>
</ul>


The FOMC hiked its policy Fed Funds rate by 75bp on 15 Jun'22, the sharpest single hike in 28 years, taking the central rate to 1.625% (official range of 1.5-1.75%).
With headline CPI inflation at 8.6%YoY in May'22, and wage inflation at 5.2%, inflationary expectations needed to be nipped in the bud, and the Fed has finally taken decisive action.
We expect the FF rate to reach 3% by Sep'22, then rise more sedately. This will induce a shallow recession by Mar'24. We are bullish on a 6-month view.


Tight Labour Market Obliges the Fed to Quickly Reverse Its Policy Error

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. </li>
<li>Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.</li>
<li>We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)</li>
</ul>


The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. 
Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.
We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)


US Dollar & 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Stick With Energy, Also Buying China Education Svcs

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Tesla announced 3-1 Stock Split in a down market plus a surprising board shakeup as Larry Ellison quietly exits. 
</li>
<li>Is this another red flag with Elon's troubled funding for his messy Twitter buyout?</li>
<li>If so, this could trigger a stampede to the exits for already wary investors in Elon's now comically overpriced hostile buyout of Twitter
</li>
</ul>



Tesla announced 3-1 Stock Split in a down market plus a surprising board shakeup as Larry Ellison quietly exits. 

Is this another red flag with Elon's troubled funding for his messy Twitter buyout?
If so, this could trigger a stampede to the exits for already wary investors in Elon's now comically overpriced hostile buyout of Twitter



Plunging Tesla Stock to Split 3-1; Larry Ellison Chooses Now to Leave Board—and Twitter Deal?

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Build a Bear

Bond market volatility continues to lead all markets lower, triggering a further round of deleveraging. Cryptos have been crushed and Credit...

Mark Tinker

Stop Fooling Around, J-Pow

Powell took a ‘’Bad Cop, Good Cop’’ stance: he answered with a firm ‘’Yes’’ at first, and then tried to soften the message during the press...