Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The better part of the touted July risk on SPX bounce is behind us. Finessing upside targets will set up the next big short into the bearish September cycle.</li>
<li>Markets have yet to fully price in weaker earnings, recession, tighter liquidity, outflows and USD upside risk in coming months</li>
<li>July highs will set up the next macro SPX and risk assets short. Remarkably tight correlation to the 1973 decline is noteworthy.</li>
</ul>


The better part of the touted July risk on SPX bounce is behind us. Finessing upside targets will set up the next big short into the bearish September cycle.
Markets have yet to fully price in weaker earnings, recession, tighter liquidity, outflows and USD upside risk in coming months
July highs will set up the next macro SPX and risk assets short. Remarkably tight correlation to the 1973 decline is noteworthy.


Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global Liquidity Index (GLI) tests a low 29.5 (range 0-100). World economy now in recession </li>
<li>World Central Bank Liquidity even weaker at index of 15.9, with US Fed Liquidity at index 41.6, trailing other policy-makers notably ECB . More squeeze ahead</li>
<li>Risk exposure of investors  still too high at index 19.1 (range -50 to +50)  given upcoming recession</li>
</ul>


Global Liquidity Index (GLI) tests a low 29.5 (range 0-100). World economy now in recession 
World Central Bank Liquidity even weaker at index of 15.9, with US Fed Liquidity at index 41.6, trailing other policy-makers notably ECB . More squeeze ahead
Risk exposure of investors  still too high at index 19.1 (range -50 to +50)  given upcoming recession


<ul>
<li>Call for early July low for a choppy rise into mid July+. Expect a series of sharp draw downs and rallies. Asia and Europe display a more bearish tone.</li>
<li>Deep backfills within the SPX range are a concern. 3,750/00 buy support with 3,900 and 4,000 rally objectives.</li>
<li>Risk of a muted C wave rise that fizzles near 3,950 on the back of recession/growth concerns is becoming more apparent.</li>
</ul>


Call for early July low for a choppy rise into mid July+. Expect a series of sharp draw downs and rallies. Asia and Europe display a more bearish tone.
Deep backfills within the SPX range are a concern. 3,750/00 buy support with 3,900 and 4,000 rally objectives.
Risk of a muted C wave rise that fizzles near 3,950 on the back of recession/growth concerns is becoming more apparent.


House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

<ul><li>June: another painful month. The first half of June has been very tough. When markets understood that a 75 bps rate hikes was coming, they quickly reacted and the result has been a new sell-off.</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 officially entered into bear market.</li><li>At the beginning, the 10-year Treasury Yield rose at a level close to 3.5%, but then it quickly went down:</li></ul>

June: another painful month. The first half of June has been very tough. When markets understood that a 75 bps rate hikes was coming, they quickly reacted and the result has been a new sell-off.The S&amp;P 500 officially entered into bear market.At the beginning, the 10-year Treasury Yield rose at a level close to 3.5%, but then it quickly went down:

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.</li>
<li>Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.</li>
<li>This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.</li>
</ul>


A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.
Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.
This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.


Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

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SPX July Rally Hurdles

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Is Bear Market over? Probably not

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Market Radar

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A bear market bounce is underway after the SPX, QQQ, and IWM found support at their respective downtrend channels. Until these indexes can break...

Vermilion Research