Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

International Business Machines / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>IBM US peaked at 153.21 in December 2022 and has declined more than 15% in the subsequent 12 weeks.</li>
<li>Last week's low of 127.71 was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and this new 4 month low was quick to fail and reverse.</li>
<li>Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS &lt; 10 at the low and justifies a further 6-7% upswing in the coming 1-2 weeks.</li>
</ul>


IBM US peaked at 153.21 in December 2022 and has declined more than 15% in the subsequent 12 weeks.
Last week's low of 127.71 was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and this new 4 month low was quick to fail and reverse.
Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS &lt; 10 at the low and justifies a further 6-7% upswing in the coming 1-2 weeks.


International Business Machines Corp (IBM US) - TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-7% Upswing

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets, Kaiko

Kaiko

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets

Kaiko is the leading cryptocurrency market data provider for institutional investors and enterprises. We empower market participants with accurate, transparent, and actionable financial data to be leveraged for a range of market activities. Kaiko’s mission is to be the foundation of the new digital finance economy by serving as a single source for market information. Our mission is premised on the idea that high-quality data drives market efficiency and greater transparency throughout the industry. For each of our enterprise clients, we build custom data plans designed for a range of use cases.

Crypto

<ul><li>In 2020 and 2021, investors opted for TIPS over conventional bonds, yet over the past year, they have moved the other way.</li><li>The TIPS ETF has fallen from $40bn of assets to $20bn, while the long bond ETF has doubled from $15bn to $30bn.</li><li>The loud and clear message from this shift is that investors are woefully unprepared for an inflation shock.</li></ul>

In 2020 and 2021, investors opted for TIPS over conventional bonds, yet over the past year, they have moved the other way.The TIPS ETF has fallen from $40bn of assets to $20bn, while the long bond ETF has doubled from $15bn to $30bn.The loud and clear message from this shift is that investors are woefully unprepared for an inflation shock.

When Bond Yields Exceed 4%, UK Governments Fall

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes</li>
<li>There has been four failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last five trading days.</li>
<li>These remain important lines in the sand moving forward. Attractive stocks: TPX, LZB, SNBR, ETD, HOFT, FLXS, KEX, SBLK, CMRE, DAC, EGLE, GNK, ASC, GSL, DSX, SB, NM, EURN, more</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes
There has been four failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last five trading days.
These remain important lines in the sand moving forward. Attractive stocks: TPX, LZB, SNBR, ETD, HOFT, FLXS, KEX, SBLK, CMRE, DAC, EGLE, GNK, ASC, GSL, DSX, SB, NM, EURN, more


Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Core PCE increased 6.9%MoM (annualized) in Jan'23, and hence was up 4.71%YoY, moving further away from the FOMC's 2%YoY target (rather than edging towards it as had been expected). </li>
<li>M2 growth averaging 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22 (vs a pre-Covid average of 6.8%YoY in the previous 60 years) is the cause. FedFunds must rise to 5.5% by May'23 to compensate.</li>
<li>Severely inverted yield curve indicates that a recession (from Q2CY23 onward) will also help generate slack, taming inflation. Any delay in recession's onset will entail even more rate hikes. </li>
</ul>


Core PCE increased 6.9%MoM (annualized) in Jan'23, and hence was up 4.71%YoY, moving further away from the FOMC's 2%YoY target (rather than edging towards it as had been expected). 
M2 growth averaging 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22 (vs a pre-Covid average of 6.8%YoY in the previous 60 years) is the cause. FedFunds must rise to 5.5% by May'23 to compensate.
Severely inverted yield curve indicates that a recession (from Q2CY23 onward) will also help generate slack, taming inflation. Any delay in recession's onset will entail even more rate hikes. 


US: Inflation Shock Implies More Rate Hikes Needed Even as Recession Looms

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

International Business Machines Corp (IBM US) - TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-7% Upswing

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...