Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The exceptional Covid-induced monetary and fiscal stimulus is being wound down, but not fast enough. Fiscal deficits averaged 10% of GDP for 4 years, far larger and longer than 2009-11.  </li>
<li>QT was abandoned in Jul'23, and M2 has contracted at a modest pace. Upside growth surprises are thus likely to continue, and will require Q2CY24 M2 to decline more sharply. </li>
<li>Once core CPE inflation abates below 2.5%YoY (likely Jun'24) the first 25bp rate cut will occur at the Jul'24 FOMC, then similar cuts in Sep'24 and Dec'24. Benign for markets. </li>
</ul>


The exceptional Covid-induced monetary and fiscal stimulus is being wound down, but not fast enough. Fiscal deficits averaged 10% of GDP for 4 years, far larger and longer than 2009-11.  
QT was abandoned in Jul'23, and M2 has contracted at a modest pace. Upside growth surprises are thus likely to continue, and will require Q2CY24 M2 to decline more sharply. 
Once core CPE inflation abates below 2.5%YoY (likely Jun'24) the first 25bp rate cut will occur at the Jul'24 FOMC, then similar cuts in Sep'24 and Dec'24. Benign for markets. 


Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 1.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.2%).</li><li>Energy Technology (12.5% of the index) was down by 6.2%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (55.5% of the index) was down by 1.2%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.7% and Advanced Transportation Solutions (26% of index) was down 1.8%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: LICY, ADES, ARVL, SMR, EH, EGT, RIDE, FF, CVW, LIS</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 1.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.2%).Energy Technology (12.5% of the index) was down by 6.2%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (55.5% of the index) was down by 1.2%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.7% and Advanced Transportation Solutions (26% of index) was down 1.8%.Top 10 Performers: LICY, ADES, ARVL, SMR, EH, EGT, RIDE, FF, CVW, LIS

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended March 15, 2024

Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome to the Emerging Market Series, this week covering the rotating capital flows away from Japan and its significance for China and Emerging AsiaWatch a condensed version of the key findings from this article on video.</li><li>Recovering from the ‘lost decades’ Japanese equities have been out of favor and continuously underperforming global benchmarks. </li><li>For 2023 however, the Nikkei 225 actually outperformed the S&amp;P 500, returning 28% vs. 24% respectively, and the euphoria around Japan returning to normalcy in terms of structural inflation, growth and its feasibility as an investment has continued into 2024 (Nikkei vs. SPX ≈ 15% vs. 8.5%). </li></ul>

Welcome to the Emerging Market Series, this week covering the rotating capital flows away from Japan and its significance for China and Emerging AsiaWatch a condensed version of the key findings from this article on video.Recovering from the ‘lost decades’ Japanese equities have been out of favor and continuously underperforming global benchmarks. For 2023 however, the Nikkei 225 actually outperformed the S&amp;P 500, returning 28% vs. 24% respectively, and the euphoria around Japan returning to normalcy in terms of structural inflation, growth and its feasibility as an investment has continued into 2024 (Nikkei vs. SPX ≈ 15% vs. 8.5%). 

Rotating EM Flows: From Japan to Emerging Asia

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.</li><li>Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.</li><li>In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.</li></ul>

Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

A Vote-of-Account-Budget sets the Narrative of “Viksit Bharat”: We believe that the Budget has proactively set the tone for economic development in the upcoming years. It envisions a "Viksit Bharat" by 2047, following a transformation similar to the one witnessed in the last decade. The market borrowing is projected to be ~11.75 Lc Cr for FY25, and the bond market responded positively to this budgeted figure. Our key takeaways from the Interim Budget are as follows: 1) Reasonable Fiscal Math; 2) Significant positive for infrastructure; 3) Enhanced allocation to the PM AwasYojana; 4) Rooftop solarization (SuryodayaYojna), and 5) Boost to Nano DAP and Aquaculture Production.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

A Vote-of-Account-Budget sets the Narrative of “Viksit Bharat”: We believe that the Budget has proactively set the tone for economic development in the upcoming years. It envisions a "Viksit Bharat" by 2047, following a transformation similar to the one witnessed in the last decade. The market borrowing is projected to be ~11.75 Lc Cr for FY25, and the bond market responded positively to this budgeted figure. Our key takeaways from the Interim Budget are as follows: 1) Reasonable Fiscal Math; 2) Significant positive for infrastructure; 3) Enhanced allocation to the PM AwasYojana; 4) Rooftop solarization (SuryodayaYojna), and 5) Boost to Nano DAP and Aquaculture Production.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus

Fiscal deficits averaged 9.95% of GDP in 2020-2023, M2 growth 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22. Latter needs to decline faster in Q2CY24 to offset the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended March 15, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 1.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research

Rotating EM Flows: From Japan to Emerging Asia

Welcome to the Emerging Market Series, this week covering the rotating capital flows away from Japan and its significance for China and Emerging...

Steno Research

Are We Heading for a Volatility Event?

Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Multi Asset Strategy - March 2024

A Vote-of-Account-Budget sets the Narrative of “Viksit Bharat”: We believe that the Budget has proactively set the tone for economic development in...

Axis Direct

Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus

​Fiscal deficits averaged 9.95% of GDP in 2020-2023, M2 growth 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22. Latter needs to decline faster in Q2CY24 to offset the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended March 15, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 1.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research

Rotating EM Flows: From Japan to Emerging Asia

Welcome to the Emerging Market Series, this week covering the rotating capital flows away from Japan and its significance for China and Emerging...

Steno Research

Are We Heading for a Volatility Event?

Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Multi Asset Strategy - March 2024

A Vote-of-Account-Budget sets the Narrative of “Viksit Bharat”: We believe that the Budget has proactively set the tone for economic development in...

Axis Direct

Fiscal deficits averaged 9.95% of GDP in 2020-2023, M2 growth 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22. Latter needs to decline faster in Q2CY24 to offset the...