Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all.</li>
<li>This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas.</li>
<li>We were stopped out of our long position in shipping in February due to false reports on a deal with the Houthis that sent the market tanking.</li>
</ul>


Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all.
This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas.
We were stopped out of our long position in shipping in February due to false reports on a deal with the Houthis that sent the market tanking.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.</li>
<li>Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).</li>
<li>Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.</li>
</ul>


Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.
Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).
Longer-Term, we're bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We'd need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> ETF tracks the Technology Select Sector Index and has an AUM of over US$70bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> has broken through the US$3tn market cap barrier and is very close to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> in terms of free float market cap.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> ranks higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a> on free float market cap at the close on Friday, there could be huge inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> and outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a> a week later.</li>
</ul>


The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF tracks the Technology Select Sector Index and has an AUM of over US$70bn.

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) has broken through the US$3tn market cap barrier and is very close to Apple (AAPL US) in terms of free float market cap.
If NVIDIA ranks higher than Apple on free float market cap at the close on Friday, there could be huge inflows to NVIDIA and outflows from Apple a week later.


Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Firms that split their shares show an avg. return of +25.4% one year after split. That’s more than 2x the average return of the S&amp;P 500 during those periods. </li>
<li>Critically, returns post stock splits are mainly seen from announcement to actual split date. Mega caps have shown 9.3% absolute returns 12 months post split. Be cautious of misleading averages.</li>
<li>On relative terms (v/s S&amp;P500) price returns were down 6.3% 12-months after stock splits. All splits generated negative returns except for Tesla in 2020.</li>
</ul>


Firms that split their shares show an avg. return of +25.4% one year after split. That’s more than 2x the average return of the S&amp;P 500 during those periods. 
Critically, returns post stock splits are mainly seen from announcement to actual split date. Mega caps have shown 9.3% absolute returns 12 months post split. Be cautious of misleading averages.
On relative terms (v/s S&amp;P500) price returns were down 6.3% 12-months after stock splits. All splits generated negative returns except for Tesla in 2020.


Splits Amplify Stock Prices & Stoke Volatility; What Next for NVIDIA After Upsetting the Apple Cart?

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a>, 7 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 13 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>There is huge size to trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crowdstrike-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28117:1" rel="noopener">Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US)</a> and both stocks were up big in the after-hours market.</li>
<li>There has been positioning in some stocks recently but stocks including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rb-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25475:1" rel="noopener">RB Global</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land</a> could see further positioning in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX, 7 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 13 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the June rebalance.
There is huge size to trade in KKR &amp; Co (KKR US) and Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) and both stocks were up big in the after-hours market.
There has been positioning in some stocks recently but stocks including KKR &amp; Co, RB Global and Texas Pacific Land could see further positioning in the next week.


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Energy Cable: Short shipping companies?

Hello from a sunny Copenhagen where the Euro 24 fever is upon us all. This week we’ll do a chart heavy analysis on shipping and nat gas. We were...

Steno Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials $XLI and Transports to Underweight; We still expect support at the 20-day MA/21-day EMA on $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows

The XLK ETF has an AUM of US$70bn. Quarter-end diversification requirement rules could set off huge passive flows of over US$10bn for NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Splits Amplify Stock Prices & Stoke Volatility; What Next for NVIDIA After Upsetting the Apple Cart?

Stock splits historically fuel price rise and positive returns. But not always as is evident from recent stock splits. Volatility expansion is more...

Mint Finance

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks

KKR, Crowdstrike and GoDaddy will be added to the SP500 at the close on 21 June. There are a bunch of changes for the SP400/600 indices too. There...

Brian Freitas