Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Now that we know the reason behind the US equity flash crash was prodominantly about covering short volatility positions and not inflation fears per say, it makes more sense as to why metals, FX, oil and other risk assets did not collapse as would have been the case if it were a pure risk off play. The VIX chart shows a compelling VIX peak. We outlined ST sell and buy levels in the S&amp;P and the expected swing sequence.In, fact the T note bounce was muted and has since come off to re test the…

Now that we know the reason behind the US equity flash crash was prodominantly about covering short volatility positions and not inflation fears per say, it makes more sense as to why metals, FX, oil and other risk assets did not collapse as would have been the case if it were a pure risk off play. The VIX chart shows a compelling VIX peak. We outlined ST sell and buy levels in the S&amp;P and the expected swing sequence.In, fact the T note bounce was muted and has since come off to re test the…

VIX 50 Peak Has Marked Key Equity Lows - S&P Swing Pivots and Where We Added Risk in Asia

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

U.S. equity prices are in the midst of their sharpest correction since the swoon in early 2016 that followed the Fed’s first rate hike in the current cycle.  We do not make explicit forecasts for equity index levels.  However, we have argued that though equities are not overvalued, we have some concerns about the outlook for pre-tax corporate profits and have suggested that low volatility has helped feed a degree of complacency in the outlook for stocks.  The equity market went into a brief but…

U.S. equity prices are in the midst of their sharpest correction since the swoon in early 2016 that followed the Fed’s first rate hike in the current cycle.  We do not make explicit forecasts for equity index levels.  However, we have argued that though equities are not overvalued, we have some concerns about the outlook for pre-tax corporate profits and have suggested that low volatility has helped feed a degree of complacency in the outlook for stocks.  The equity market went into a brief but…

A Near-Term Opportunity Amid Medium-Term Challenges to U.S. Equities

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

The abrupt correction has led the DJIA and S&amp;P 500 to return to levels that are still well above their respective 200-day moving averages. In the case of the S&amp;P 500, Monday’s low is approaching its trendline which began with the lows of early 2016, also touching support the day before the presidential election of November 2016, and again in August 2017. A move below this area of support and the 200-day moving average could lead to further pressure and a potential return to the up-trend that began at the 2009 lows.  In this report we highlight key indicators to watch for signs of a near-term bottom, or for signs of further selling ahead.

The abrupt correction has led the DJIA and S&amp;P 500 to return to levels that are still well above their respective 200-day moving averages. In the case of the S&amp;P 500, Monday’s low is approaching its trendline which began with the lows of early 2016, also touching support the day before the presidential election of November 2016, and again in August 2017. A move below this area of support and the 200-day moving average could lead to further pressure and a potential return to the up-trend that began at the 2009 lows.  In this report we highlight key indicators to watch for signs of a near-term bottom, or for signs of further selling ahead.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Correcting Excess Optimism

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

In "A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum" I looked at when similar momentum readings to January's had occurred, particularly in relation to previous bear market lows, and speculated that we have been witnessing a buying climax, or upwards crash.Another indicator is signalling crash-like conditions, hence the headline. ADX is a measure of Trend Strength (first chart; note that it does not differentiate between up- and downtrends, only their intensity), and only twice since its inception has the…

In "A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum" I looked at when similar momentum readings to January's had occurred, particularly in relation to previous bear market lows, and speculated that we have been witnessing a buying climax, or upwards crash.Another indicator is signalling crash-like conditions, hence the headline. ADX is a measure of Trend Strength (first chart; note that it does not differentiate between up- and downtrends, only their intensity), and only twice since its inception has the…

S&P 500: Is This the 2008 Crash in Reverse?

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 
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Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.</li>
<li>
Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee</li>
<li>
Tuesday…</li>
</ul>
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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 


Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.

Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee

Tuesday…



Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

VIX 50 Peak Has Marked Key Equity Lows - S&P Swing Pivots and Where We Added Risk in Asia

Now that we know the reason behind the US equity flash crash was prodominantly about covering short volatility positions and not inflation fears...

Thomas Schroeder

A Near-Term Opportunity Amid Medium-Term Challenges to U.S. Equities

U.S. equity prices are in the midst of their sharpest correction since the swoon in early 2016 that followed the Fed’s first rate hike in the...