Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class="">
<li>
This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the merits of Ray Dalio's 'Big Short' on European stocks and add long EUR-SEK and short ZAR-MXN to our watchlist. We stay defensive on USD, US Treasurys and US equities via long positions in JPY, EUR, UST 10s vs 30s and US banks vs FANG+ stocks. We are long AUD-NZD and SGD-CNH and prefer Malaysia to Indian and Philippine equities.</li>
<li>
Monday: Japan trade, Thailand…</li>
</ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the merits of Ray Dalio's 'Big Short' on European stocks and add long EUR-SEK and short ZAR-MXN to our watchlist. We stay defensive on USD, US Treasurys and US equities via long positions in JPY, EUR, UST 10s vs 30s and US banks vs FANG+ stocks. We are long AUD-NZD and SGD-CNH and prefer Malaysia to Indian and Philippine equities.

Monday: Japan trade, Thailand…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

A 2.4-2.6% rebound in benchmark Brent and WTI crude prices Wednesday (February 14) in a week of mildly bearish short-term and long-term indicators from stocks and supply fundamentals supports our argument that oil remains in the grip of the frenzy dominating world's financial markets. Oil's bounce matched a smart recovery in stock markets across Europe and the US, and was extending in Asia Thursday as the region's equities took a lead from the West. The recent fears of inflation and its impact on economic growth aside, global demand projections for oil in 2018 remain strong. However, we might find crude caught in a tug-of- war between the mop-up of the global surplus underway due to the OPEC/non-OPEC cuts and fears of U.S. shale resurgence once the financial markets stabilise.

A 2.4-2.6% rebound in benchmark Brent and WTI crude prices Wednesday (February 14) in a week of mildly bearish short-term and long-term indicators from stocks and supply fundamentals supports our argument that oil remains in the grip of the frenzy dominating world's financial markets. Oil's bounce matched a smart recovery in stock markets across Europe and the US, and was extending in Asia Thursday as the region's equities took a lead from the West. The recent fears of inflation and its impact on economic growth aside, global demand projections for oil in 2018 remain strong. However, we might find crude caught in a tug-of- war between the mop-up of the global surplus underway due to the OPEC/non-OPEC cuts and fears of U.S. shale resurgence once the financial markets stabilise.

Oil Prices Get Some Love from Financial Markets on Valentine's Day

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/044/620/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-02-15%20at%207.54.04%20AM.png?1518643884" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="44620"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
US inflation has been flickering back to life for several months now. We have been consistently highlighting this ominous trend and identified the US's deteriorating growth:inflation mix as a key investment theme for the year <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-the-comeback-kid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16026">Chart of the Day: The Comeback Kid</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-that-2008-feeling" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16943">Chart of the Day: That 2008 Feeling....</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-18-for-18-part-1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16410">Global: 18 For '18 - Part 1</a>). 
But the trend in US inflation morphed from the mildly worrying to the outright scary last nightas the January CPI surprised vigorously to the upside. Our preferred…
</div>


US inflation has been flickering back to life for several months now. We have been consistently highlighting this ominous trend and identified the US's deteriorating growth:inflation mix as a key investment theme for the year Chart of the Day: The Comeback Kid, Chart of the Day: That 2008 Feeling...., Global: 18 For '18 - Part 1). 
But the trend in US inflation morphed from the mildly worrying to the outright scary last nightas the January CPI surprised vigorously to the upside. Our preferred…


Chart of the Day: US Inflation Turns Scary

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

With our post-2009 wave counts nearing completion (and acceptably complete in NASDAQ 100), we have been watching nervously to see if the S&amp;P would produce a sharp sell-off along the lines of Q2 2000 or Q3 2007, providing an initial warning that it might have begun top-building.  The recent decline certainly qualifies.

With our post-2009 wave counts nearing completion (and acceptably complete in NASDAQ 100), we have been watching nervously to see if the S&amp;P would produce a sharp sell-off along the lines of Q2 2000 or Q3 2007, providing an initial warning that it might have begun top-building.  The recent decline certainly qualifies. 

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

The following contrarian charts increase odds that we have found, at a minimum, a good tactical low to work with in coming months for the S&amp;P (formed a dual bottom). A VIX high, breath lows, S&amp;P washout low, sentiment readings a extreme negative levels, record outflows, 10yr breakeven to fade as our call for a yield peak unfolds all rounds out some support for equities into late Q1 if not early Q2. Clearly the US CPI print out this week will be the key data hurdle. Bonds are geared for a rally…

The following contrarian charts increase odds that we have found, at a minimum, a good tactical low to work with in coming months for the S&amp;P (formed a dual bottom). A VIX high, breath lows, S&amp;P washout low, sentiment readings a extreme negative levels, record outflows, 10yr breakeven to fade as our call for a yield peak unfolds all rounds out some support for equities into late Q1 if not early Q2. Clearly the US CPI print out this week will be the key data hurdle. Bonds are geared for a rally…

S&P Support Signals and the Path into March

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Oil Prices Get Some Love from Financial Markets on Valentine's Day

A 2.4-2.6% rebound in benchmark Brent and WTI crude prices Wednesday (February 14) in a week of mildly bearish short-term and long-term indicators...

Vandana Hari

Chart of the Day: US Inflation Turns Scary

US inflation has been flickering back to life for several months now. We have been consistently highlighting this ominous trend and identified the...

Richard Iley

S&P 500: The First Phase of Top-Building

With our post-2009 wave counts nearing completion (and acceptably complete in NASDAQ 100), we have been watching nervously to see if the S&P...

Peter Beuttell

S&P Support Signals and the Path into March

The following contrarian charts increase odds that we have found, at a minimum, a good tactical low to work with in coming months for the S&P...

Thomas Schroeder