Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

The oil markets in the week of February 12-16 reminded us of the Pied Piper of Hamelin.The dark tale, set in the 13th-century German town of Hamelin, has the Pied Piper mesmerizing all the town’s children with his music and luring them to follow him, never to be found again.We are not suggesting anyone’s disappearance but our analysis shows that crude remained in the grip of the financial markets last week, rising and falling with sentiment swaying the world’s major stock markets, rather than following its own fundamentals.  As fears over inflation and interest rate hikes, first set into motion February 2, eased, equities around the globe partially clawed back some of their losses. So did crude futures. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its next meeting March 20-21. But interest rate expectations could continue to be recalibrated beyond that date.  Fear in the stock markets may have subsided towards the end of last week but it has not been banished. More violent swings would likely take the oil market along for a ride.Once the financial market turmoil subsides, fundamentals will come to the fore and we see two key issues shaping oil market sentiment: 1) The confidence in strong global oil demand growth in 2018 and 2) The magnitude of growth in US crude production in 2018.

The oil markets in the week of February 12-16 reminded us of the Pied Piper of Hamelin.The dark tale, set in the 13th-century German town of Hamelin, has the Pied Piper mesmerizing all the town’s children with his music and luring them to follow him, never to be found again.We are not suggesting anyone’s disappearance but our analysis shows that crude remained in the grip of the financial markets last week, rising and falling with sentiment swaying the world’s major stock markets, rather than following its own fundamentals.  As fears over inflation and interest rate hikes, first set into motion February 2, eased, equities around the globe partially clawed back some of their losses. So did crude futures. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its next meeting March 20-21. But interest rate expectations could continue to be recalibrated beyond that date.  Fear in the stock markets may have subsided towards the end of last week but it has not been banished. More violent swings would likely take the oil market along for a ride.Once the financial market turmoil subsides, fundamentals will come to the fore and we see two key issues shaping oil market sentiment: 1) The confidence in strong global oil demand growth in 2018 and 2) The magnitude of growth in US crude production in 2018.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Prices Bounce up with Financial Market Sentiment

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

The early February US equity plunge is viewed as a warning shot of a bigger cycle top in line with our call for a February cycle low and final rise into March if not stretching into April depending on the recovery momentum and breadth of the rise. In order to mark a meaningful macro top we need to see breadth lag an S&amp;P rise and start to see defensive sectors outperform.Call to start covering shorts and layering back into risk on February 12th has worked well. There is a fade trade coming up…

The early February US equity plunge is viewed as a warning shot of a bigger cycle top in line with our call for a February cycle low and final rise into March if not stretching into April depending on the recovery momentum and breadth of the rise. In order to mark a meaningful macro top we need to see breadth lag an S&amp;P rise and start to see defensive sectors outperform.Call to start covering shorts and layering back into risk on February 12th has worked well. There is a fade trade coming up…

S&P Drive into a Major Top and Macro Decline Target

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/044/857/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-02-19%20at%209.22.26%20AM.png?1518994382" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="44857"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
Just as last week's January CPI report showed a genuinely alarming acceleration in 'core core' CPI momentum with the Cleveland Fed's median CPI gauge accelerating to a rate not seen since 2006 (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-us-inflation-turns-scary" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17743">Chart of the Day: US Inflation Turns Scary</a>), there are now also clear signs of a dramatic ramping up of inflationary pressure further upstream in the booming manufacturing sector. 
Lead indicators of manufacturing pipeline price pressures are relatively thin on the ground. The bellwether ISM…
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Just as last week's January CPI report showed a genuinely alarming acceleration in 'core core' CPI momentum with the Cleveland Fed's median CPI gauge accelerating to a rate not seen since 2006 (see Chart of the Day: US Inflation Turns Scary), there are now also clear signs of a dramatic ramping up of inflationary pressure further upstream in the booming manufacturing sector. 
Lead indicators of manufacturing pipeline price pressures are relatively thin on the ground. The bellwether ISM…


Chart of the Day: US Inflation Turns Scary - Part 2

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Last week's "The First Phase of Top-Building" argued that, although the S&amp;P's intra-day low at 2,533 completed an a-b-c corrective pattern, the indicator extremes created had parallels with the 2000 and 2007 top areas.  In addition, the decline carried 11.8%, which compares with the 11.9% drop of 2007, providing further evidence that top-building has begun. This does not conflict with our theory that the rise into the January peak was an “upward crash”, like 2008 in reverse.  If the top is a…

Last week's "The First Phase of Top-Building" argued that, although the S&amp;P's intra-day low at 2,533 completed an a-b-c corrective pattern, the indicator extremes created had parallels with the 2000 and 2007 top areas.  In addition, the decline carried 11.8%, which compares with the 11.9% drop of 2007, providing further evidence that top-building has begun. This does not conflict with our theory that the rise into the January peak was an “upward crash”, like 2008 in reverse.  If the top is a…

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class="">
<li>
This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the merits of Ray Dalio's 'Big Short' on European stocks and add long EUR-SEK and short ZAR-MXN to our watchlist. We stay defensive on USD, US Treasurys and US equities via long positions in JPY, EUR, UST 10s vs 30s and US banks vs FANG+ stocks. We are long AUD-NZD and SGD-CNH and prefer Malaysia to Indian and Philippine equities.</li>
<li>
Monday: Japan trade, Thailand…</li>
</ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the merits of Ray Dalio's 'Big Short' on European stocks and add long EUR-SEK and short ZAR-MXN to our watchlist. We stay defensive on USD, US Treasurys and US equities via long positions in JPY, EUR, UST 10s vs 30s and US banks vs FANG+ stocks. We are long AUD-NZD and SGD-CNH and prefer Malaysia to Indian and Philippine equities.

Monday: Japan trade, Thailand…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Prices Bounce up with Financial Market Sentiment

The oil markets in the week of February 12-16 reminded us of the Pied Piper of Hamelin.The dark tale, set in the 13th-century German town of...

Vandana Hari

S&P Drive into a Major Top and Macro Decline Target

The early February US equity plunge is viewed as a warning shot of a bigger cycle top in line with our call for a February cycle low and final rise...

Thomas Schroeder

Chart of the Day: US Inflation Turns Scary - Part 2

Just as last week's January CPI report showed a genuinely alarming acceleration in 'core core' CPI momentum with the Cleveland Fed's median CPI...

Richard Iley

S&P 500: Replaying 2007

Last week's "The First Phase of Top-Building" argued that, although the S&P's intra-day low at 2,533 completed an a-b-c corrective pattern, the...

Peter Beuttell

Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra