Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<p><em><strong>Biden still remains on course for victory. But vulnerable on China, he has proposed a 30.8% corporate tax rate for companies that outsource manufacturing/services overseas. The improving economy will help Trump tighten the polls in October, and Biden is likely to lose ground after the three debates. Delayed postal/absentee ballots will likely mean an uncertain outcome on Election night, raising the likelihood of a protracted dispute about the result that makes 2000 seem tame. We recommend taking profits on equities by early-October, and being underweight equities through November. </strong></em></p><p>As expected, the presidential polls narrowed after the party conventions, particularly after the more slick Republican convention (much of it held in person with several speeches from the White House), which President Trump used to change the conversation from Covid-mismanagement to "law and order", particularly the issue of urban protests (against the killings by police of largely innocent black men) turning toward violence, vandalism and looting. Both conventions sought to reach out to the centrist voter, Biden by showcasing Republican supporters (ex-Gov. John Kasich, who was Trump's last rival in the 2016 race, ex-Secretary of State Colin Powell, and the family of the late Sen. John McCain), and Trump unusually showcasing black and women supporters in an unorthodox bid to appeal to centrists who may have thought he was racist/sexist. The actual polling "bump" that Trump received from the convention was modest (about 2 percentage points, albeit better than Biden's bump of less than 1pp in the average poll), but the betting odds narrowed sharply in the week after the Republican convention (with Trump coming within 1pp of Biden).</p><p>Since then, however, the race has returned to where it was in mid-August, with Biden having a handsome lead (average over 7.5 percentage points) in nationwide polls (and the betting odds), and retaining a solid lead in battleground states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida) that Trump won in 2016. Trump leads narrowly in Ohio. But Biden has built a sizable lead in Arizona (where his closeness to late Sen. John McCain (R-Az) -- highlighted in the Democratic convention -- has helped) and North Carolina; the latter has been carried by a Democrat only twice in the last 52 years, the former only once in the past 72 years. If the election were held today, Biden would win by a wide margin in the Electoral College and popular vote. </p><p>However, the race will likely tighten in October, as the economy continues to recover (with a big QoQ rebound likely in 3Q 2020 GDP growth, announced at October-end), the US Covid curve continues to flatten (new-case numbers have averaged 39K in the past week, from a peak of 69K in the final week of July), and Trump gains a bit from the debates. Biden, vulnerable on the fact that China-trade was omitted from his convention, has a rash plan to impose a 30.8% corporate tax rate on companies that outsource manufacturing/services overseas (likely to hit all large companies). Biden remains likely to win; but first, there will be uncertainty on Election night because postal/absentee ballots likely will not be counted that day -- exaggerating Trump's vote share, and seemingly tightening the election even more in the swing states. The uncertainty will make for a more volatile November in markets: with the likely winner calling for a 30.8% corporate tax rate, amid calls for insurrection from the losing side, we now expect an even larger sell-off (7-10%) in the market in November amid the growing uncertainty.   </p>

Biden still remains on course for victory. But vulnerable on China, he has proposed a 30.8% corporate tax rate for companies that outsource manufacturing/services overseas. The improving economy will help Trump tighten the polls in October, and Biden is likely to lose ground after the three debates. Delayed postal/absentee ballots will likely mean an uncertain outcome on Election night, raising the likelihood of a protracted dispute about the result that makes 2000 seem tame. We recommend taking profits on equities by early-October, and being underweight equities through November. As expected, the presidential polls narrowed after the party conventions, particularly after the more slick Republican convention (much of it held in person with several speeches from the White House), which President Trump used to change the conversation from Covid-mismanagement to "law and order", particularly the issue of urban protests (against the killings by police of largely innocent black men) turning toward violence, vandalism and looting. Both conventions sought to reach out to the centrist voter, Biden by showcasing Republican supporters (ex-Gov. John Kasich, who was Trump's last rival in the 2016 race, ex-Secretary of State Colin Powell, and the family of the late Sen. John McCain), and Trump unusually showcasing black and women supporters in an unorthodox bid to appeal to centrists who may have thought he was racist/sexist. The actual polling "bump" that Trump received from the convention was modest (about 2 percentage points, albeit better than Biden's bump of less than 1pp in the average poll), but the betting odds narrowed sharply in the week after the Republican convention (with Trump coming within 1pp of Biden).Since then, however, the race has returned to where it was in mid-August, with Biden having a handsome lead (average over 7.5 percentage points) in nationwide polls (and the betting odds), and retaining a solid lead in battleground states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida) that Trump won in 2016. Trump leads narrowly in Ohio. But Biden has built a sizable lead in Arizona (where his closeness to late Sen. John McCain (R-Az) -- highlighted in the Democratic convention -- has helped) and North Carolina; the latter has been carried by a Democrat only twice in the last 52 years, the former only once in the past 72 years. If the election were held today, Biden would win by a wide margin in the Electoral College and popular vote. However, the race will likely tighten in October, as the economy continues to recover (with a big QoQ rebound likely in 3Q 2020 GDP growth, announced at October-end), the US Covid curve continues to flatten (new-case numbers have averaged 39K in the past week, from a peak of 69K in the final week of July), and Trump gains a bit from the debates. Biden, vulnerable on the fact that China-trade was omitted from his convention, has a rash plan to impose a 30.8% corporate tax rate on companies that outsource manufacturing/services overseas (likely to hit all large companies). Biden remains likely to win; but first, there will be uncertainty on Election night because postal/absentee ballots likely will not be counted that day -- exaggerating Trump's vote share, and seemingly tightening the election even more in the swing states. The uncertainty will make for a more volatile November in markets: with the likely winner calling for a 30.8% corporate tax rate, amid calls for insurrection from the losing side, we now expect an even larger sell-off (7-10%) in the market in November amid the growing uncertainty.   

Trump's "Law & Order" Message Tightens the Polls, but Biden-Harris Still Well Ahead

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

<p>Despite their mixed record in correctly anticipating election results in recent years, financial markets are discounting a very benign form of de-coupling between China and the US. Equity investors in the US have not embraced the possibility of a Biden victory in the Presidential Election and, consequently, the prospect of higher taxes and greater regulation.</p>
<p>The initial fears of supply chain dislocation due to forced on-shoring by US corporations under the Trump Administration have failed to subsequently materialise. China has spectacularly built up her productive capacity for information technology products, a feat which neighbouring countries will struggle to replicate in the near future.</p>
<div>China should learn from the experience of Japan during the 1980s about the US taking protectionist measures to protect its strategic technological leadership. Unintended consequences of the Trump Administration's attempt to choke off Huawei's access to chips could be higher prices and lower innovation in the realm of telecommunications equipment.</div>
<div></div>
<div>A range of potential US-China de-coupling scenarios exist with varying degrees of severity, including China being barred access to US dollars and the establishment of a gold standard for the yuan. Barring China from the SWIFT system to access dollars would create a massive deflationary shock, while building the necessary gold reserves for a Chinese gold standard would drive the dollar price of gold up and, consequently, the US currency down</div>
<div></div>
<div>Competing ecological systems for information technology between China and the US will raise governance costs for global corporations wishing to undertake cross-border business. The Trump Administration's willingness to cite national security concerns in the realm of data governance could render some forms of cross-border activity involving information technology unviable in the future. </div>

Despite their mixed record in correctly anticipating election results in recent years, financial markets are discounting a very benign form of de-coupling between China and the US. Equity investors in the US have not embraced the possibility of a Biden victory in the Presidential Election and, consequently, the prospect of higher taxes and greater regulation.
The initial fears of supply chain dislocation due to forced on-shoring by US corporations under the Trump Administration have failed to subsequently materialise. China has spectacularly built up her productive capacity for information technology products, a feat which neighbouring countries will struggle to replicate in the near future.
China should learn from the experience of Japan during the 1980s about the US taking protectionist measures to protect its strategic technological leadership. Unintended consequences of the Trump Administration's attempt to choke off Huawei's access to chips could be higher prices and lower innovation in the realm of telecommunications equipment.

A range of potential US-China de-coupling scenarios exist with varying degrees of severity, including China being barred access to US dollars and the establishment of a gold standard for the yuan. Barring China from the SWIFT system to access dollars would create a massive deflationary shock, while building the necessary gold reserves for a Chinese gold standard would drive the dollar price of gold up and, consequently, the US currency down

Competing ecological systems for information technology between China and the US will raise governance costs for global corporations wishing to undertake cross-border business. The Trump Administration's willingness to cite national security concerns in the realm of data governance could render some forms of cross-border activity involving information technology unviable in the future. 

Financial Markets Discount Benign China-US Disconnect, but Other Scenarios Remain on the Table

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially something similar to what the market experienced between June and early-July. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Materials: Retailers, Footwear, Retailers, Teenagers, Metals, Steel, Integrated, Non-U.S., and Chemicals, Diversified.</p>

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially something similar to what the market experienced between June and early-July. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Materials: Retailers, Footwear, Retailers, Teenagers, Metals, Steel, Integrated, Non-U.S., and Chemicals, Diversified.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Our tactical bet for the NDX and SPX touted a long from NDX 11k and SPX 3,320 for a rise to test 11,500 and 3,400 resistances and DJI 28,200.</p><div>Rally on the FOMC statement is expected to fade and we like shorting SPX and RTY strength if the rally fails to impress near SPX 3,435 with outlined support at 3,350. RTY is our core underperform short pair with resistance at 1,570 as the short level.</div><div></div><div>Daily RSI resistance levels and the underside of broken trendline are the focus levels to align.</div><div></div><p><strong>Daily MACD's show a wide mouth (spread) that needs to narrow </strong>or close and supports a reaction rise. Noted RSI resistance points to align with price levels.</p>

Our tactical bet for the NDX and SPX touted a long from NDX 11k and SPX 3,320 for a rise to test 11,500 and 3,400 resistances and DJI 28,200.Rally on the FOMC statement is expected to fade and we like shorting SPX and RTY strength if the rally fails to impress near SPX 3,435 with outlined support at 3,350. RTY is our core underperform short pair with resistance at 1,570 as the short level.Daily RSI resistance levels and the underside of broken trendline are the focus levels to align.Daily MACD's show a wide mouth (spread) that needs to narrow or close and supports a reaction rise. Noted RSI resistance points to align with price levels.

NDX and SPX Underside of Broken Trendline Pivots

<p>US daily RSI spike risk still from the 40 area. Rally bet from 3,320 met 3,400-40 target zone but secondary push failed. Flat range risk of breaking down after rally failed at underside of trendline.</p><p>DJI 27k and NDX 10,900 pivots to hold or break as lead action points. We are trading a tactical bounce from just above these supports to test the trendline break point.</p><p>If NDX breaks below 10,900 after failing to re take broken trendline support, it will take the SPX and global cycle with it.</p><p>SPX weekly cycle illustrates some macro concerns with a weekly bear reversal set up and MACD turn down from key resistance. Macro pivot lies at 3,220. Ideal short zone on a bounce near 3,400+ where we faded.</p>

US daily RSI spike risk still from the 40 area. Rally bet from 3,320 met 3,400-40 target zone but secondary push failed. Flat range risk of breaking down after rally failed at underside of trendline.DJI 27k and NDX 10,900 pivots to hold or break as lead action points. We are trading a tactical bounce from just above these supports to test the trendline break point.If NDX breaks below 10,900 after failing to re take broken trendline support, it will take the SPX and global cycle with it.SPX weekly cycle illustrates some macro concerns with a weekly bear reversal set up and MACD turn down from key resistance. Macro pivot lies at 3,220. Ideal short zone on a bounce near 3,400+ where we faded.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Trump's "Law & Order" Message Tightens the Polls, but Biden-Harris Still Well Ahead

As expected, the presidential polls narrowed after the party conventions, particul

Prasenjit K. Basu

Financial Markets Discount Benign China-US Disconnect, but Other Scenarios Remain on the Table

Despite their mixed record in correctly anticipating election results in recent years, financial markets are discounting a very benign form of...

DeSaque Macro Research

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially...

Vermilion Research

NDX and SPX Underside of Broken Trendline Pivots

Our tactical bet for the NDX and SPX touted a long from NDX 11k and SPX 3,320 for a rise to test 11,500 and 3,400 resistances and DJI 28,200. Rally...

Thomas Schroeder

SPX and NDX Trendline Breach Test

US daily RSI spike risk still from the 40 area. Rally bet from 3,320 met 3,400-40 target zone but secondary push failed. Flat range risk of...

Thomas Schroeder