Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

There's No Global "Second Wave" Of Covid, but Long-Term Valuations Are Very Elevated

Ugly, Disorderly Debate Raises the Spectre of 1824, if Not 1860

A "Blue Wave" Is Better than the Worst Outcome, but Won't Be Great for Markets

Biden-Harris Is a Formidable Ticket, but It Has Vulnerabilities from a Leftward Tilt

What a Biden Presidency Will Mean for Markets, the Economy and Asia

Trump Vs Biden Set 7 Months in Advance: Recession Aids Biden; Dirt Will Fly His Way

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Biden still remains on course for victory. But vulnerable on China, he has proposed a 30.8% corporate tax rate for companies that outsource manufacturing/services overseas. The improving economy will help Trump tighten the polls in October, and Biden is likely to lose ground after the three debates. Delayed postal/absentee ballots will likely mean an uncertain outcome on Election night, raising the likelihood of a protracted dispute about the result that makes 2000 seem tame. We recommend taking profits on equities by early-October, and being underweight equities through November. As expected, the presidential polls narrowed after the party conventions, particularly after the more slick Republican convention (much of it held in person with several speeches from the White House), which President Trump used to change the conversation from Covid-mismanagement to "law and order", particularly the issue of urban protests (against the killings by police of largely innocent black men) turning toward violence, vandalism and looting. Both conventions sought to reach out to the centrist voter, Biden by showcasing Republican supporters (ex-Gov. John Kasich, who was Trump's last rival in the 2016 race, ex-Secretary of State Colin Powell, and the family of the late Sen. John McCain), and Trump unusually showcasing black and women supporters in an unorthodox bid to appeal to centrists who may have thought he was racist/sexist. The actual polling "bump" that Trump received from the convention was modest (about 2 percentage points, albeit better than Biden's bump of less than 1pp in the average poll), but the betting odds narrowed sharply in the week after the Republican convention (with Trump coming within 1pp of Biden).Since then, however, the race has returned to where it was in mid-August, with Biden having a handsome lead (average over 7.5 percentage points) in nationwide polls (and the betting odds), and retaining a solid lead in battleground states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida) that Trump won in 2016. Trump leads narrowly in Ohio. But Biden has built a sizable lead in Arizona (where his closeness to late Sen. John McCain (R-Az) -- highlighted in the Democratic convention -- has helped) and North Carolina; the latter has been carried by a Democrat only twice in the last 52 years, the former only once in the past 72 years. If the election were held today, Biden would win by a wide margin in the Electoral College and popular vote. However, the race will likely tighten in October, as the economy continues to recover (with a big QoQ rebound likely in 3Q 2020 GDP growth, announced at October-end), the US Covid curve continues to flatten (new-case numbers have averaged 39K in the past week, from a peak of 69K in the final week of July), and Trump gains a bit from the debates. Biden, vulnerable on the fact that China-trade was omitted from his convention, has a rash plan to impose a 30.8% corporate tax rate on companies that outsource manufacturing/services overseas (likely to hit all large companies). Biden remains likely to win; but first, there will be uncertainty on Election night because postal/absentee ballots likely will not be counted that day -- exaggerating Trump's vote share, and seemingly tightening the election even more in the swing states. The uncertainty will make for a more volatile November in markets: with the likely winner calling for a 30.8% corporate tax rate, amid calls for insurrection from the losing side, we now expect an even larger sell-off (7-10%) in the market in November amid the growing uncertainty.

Biden still remains on course for victory. But vulnerable on China, he has proposed a 30.8% corporate tax rate for companies that outsource manufacturing/services overseas. The improving economy will help Trump tighten the polls in October, and Biden is likely to lose ground after the three debates. Delayed postal/absentee ballots will likely mean an uncertain outcome on Election night, raising the likelihood of a protracted dispute about the result that makes 2000 seem tame. We recommend taking profits on equities by early-October, and being underweight equities through November. As expected, the presidential polls narrowed after the party conventions, particularly after the more slick Republican convention (much of it held in person with several speeches from the White House), which President Trump used to change the conversation from Covid-mismanagement to "law and order", particularly the issue of urban protests (against the killings by police of largely innocent black men) turning toward violence, vandalism and looting. Both conventions sought to reach out to the centrist voter, Biden by showcasing Republican supporters (ex-Gov. John Kasich, who was Trump's last rival in the 2016 race, ex-Secretary of State Colin Powell, and the family of the late Sen. John McCain), and Trump unusually showcasing black and women supporters in an unorthodox bid to appeal to centrists who may have thought he was racist/sexist. The actual polling "bump" that Trump received from the convention was modest (about 2 percentage points, albeit better than Biden's bump of less than 1pp in the average poll), but the betting odds narrowed sharply in the week after the Republican convention (with Trump coming within 1pp of Biden).Since then, however, the race has returned to where it was in mid-August, with Biden having a handsome lead (average over 7.5 percentage points) in nationwide polls (and the betting odds), and retaining a solid lead in battleground states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida) that Trump won in 2016. Trump leads narrowly in Ohio. But Biden has built a sizable lead in Arizona (where his closeness to late Sen. John McCain (R-Az) -- highlighted in the Democratic convention -- has helped) and North Carolina; the latter has been carried by a Democrat only twice in the last 52 years, the former only once in the past 72 years. If the election were held today, Biden would win by a wide margin in the Electoral College and popular vote. However, the race will likely tighten in October, as the economy continues to recover (with a big QoQ rebound likely in 3Q 2020 GDP growth, announced at October-end), the US Covid curve continues to flatten (new-case numbers have averaged 39K in the past week, from a peak of 69K in the final week of July), and Trump gains a bit from the debates. Biden, vulnerable on the fact that China-trade was omitted from his convention, has a rash plan to impose a 30.8% corporate tax rate on companies that outsource manufacturing/services overseas (likely to hit all large companies). Biden remains likely to win; but first, there will be uncertainty on Election night because postal/absentee ballots likely will not be counted that day -- exaggerating Trump's vote share, and seemingly tightening the election even more in the swing states. The uncertainty will make for a more volatile November in markets: with the likely winner calling for a 30.8% corporate tax rate, amid calls for insurrection from the losing side, we now expect an even larger sell-off (7-10%) in the market in November amid the growing uncertainty.   

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Trump's "Law & Order" Message Tightens the Polls, but Biden-Harris Still Well Ahead