Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with the US equity cycle staging a final push out above NDX 12,500 and the DJI bull triangle at 30k. SPX rally energy beginning to struggle near 3,720 projection.USD near a cycle low expected to front run the equity cycle peak due next week. Low in USD, peak in the equity cycle and low in gold.Our ideal cycle peak comes in around December 15 with the next cycle date on December 21 that will trigger profit taking into year-end that will most likely snowball ahead of a fresh bull drive in January/February.We outlined NDX and DJI key levels as the rally drivers this week and where a rally would fail given a number of mounting risks into year-end.

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with the US equity cycle staging a final push out above NDX 12,500 and the DJI bull triangle at 30k. SPX rally energy beginning to struggle near 3,720 projection.USD near a cycle low expected to front run the equity cycle peak due next week. Low in USD, peak in the equity cycle and low in gold.Our ideal cycle peak comes in around December 15 with the next cycle date on December 21 that will trigger profit taking into year-end that will most likely snowball ahead of a fresh bull drive in January/February.We outlined NDX and DJI key levels as the rally drivers this week and where a rally would fail given a number of mounting risks into year-end.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

Periodically, the pro-growth agenda of former US Treasury secretaries has created an antagonistic relationship with the leadership at the Fed. Since 1990, however, relations between the Treasury and Fed have been largely amicable, while no major changes in congeniality are expected soon. Janet Yellen's extensive experience at the Fed has initially been viewed bullishly by Wall Street, along with her previous role working directly under a Democratic President. As Fed Chair, she had a dovish tilt towards policy formulation aimed primarily at healing the US labour market, while financial market conditions ranked lower in importance. Former Fed Chair Yellen was viewed as being a long-term deficit hawk during her tenure at the central bank, but she recognised the importance of fiscal policy in supporting  aggregate demand in the near-term. As a prospective Treasury Secretary, she recognises the importance that expansion of fiscal policy could have to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, but specific measures remain elusive at this juncture. A high level of US Treasury borrowing is anticipated in 2021 Q1, thereby implying that the Fed will need to ramp up asset purchases to prevent a reduction in bank reserves. Meanwhile, further liquidity injections are in the offing as the Treasury runs down its high cash balance at the Fed during 2021 H1, thereby implying meaningful support for the real economy, although the outlook beyond is uncertain.

Periodically, the pro-growth agenda of former US Treasury secretaries has created an antagonistic relationship with the leadership at the Fed. Since 1990, however, relations between the Treasury and Fed have been largely amicable, while no major changes in congeniality are expected soon.  Janet Yellen's extensive experience at the Fed has initially been viewed bullishly by Wall Street, along with her previous role working directly under a Democratic President. As Fed Chair, she had a dovish tilt towards policy formulation aimed primarily at healing the US labour market, while financial market conditions ranked lower in importance.  Former Fed Chair Yellen was viewed as being a long-term deficit hawk during her tenure at the central bank, but she recognised the importance of fiscal policy in supporting  aggregate demand in the near-term. As a prospective Treasury Secretary, she recognises the importance that expansion of fiscal policy could have to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, but specific measures remain elusive at this juncture.  A high level of US Treasury borrowing is anticipated in 2021 Q1, thereby implying that the Fed will need to ramp up asset purchases to prevent a reduction in bank reserves. Meanwhile, further liquidity injections are in the offing as the Treasury runs down its high cash balance at the Fed during 2021 H1, thereby implying meaningful support for the real economy, although the outlook beyond is uncertain.

Congenial Treasury-Fed Nexus Under Yellen Places Spotlight on Fiscal Policy Outlook

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are within striking distance of all-time highs and we believe breakouts are on the horizon. Overall, our outlook remains bullish and we recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Materials, and Manufacturing.

The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are within striking distance of all-time highs and we believe breakouts are on the horizon. Overall, our outlook remains bullish and we recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Materials, and Manufacturing.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Breakouts On The Horizon

Cross Asset Strategy

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was criticised for requesting the return of funds from the Fed from three facilities that were established to bolster financial conditions at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Aggregate financial conditions have eased significantly since the start of the pandemic, largely benefiting large firms, and thereby rendering the funds no longer necessary to be held at the Fed.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will retain their dovish bias via the prospective alteration of asset purchases, but there is less consensus about the exact structure of any future changes. Fed Chair Powell has repeatedly stressed downside risks to the economic outlook, but his reluctance to ease policy may indicate constraints on how much can effectively be achieved with new measures.
Recent US political events have had little impact on financial conditions, largely due to Wall Street firms embracing bullish scenarios for either election outcome. The speed at which any future tightening of financial conditions occurs will be critical in determining the nature of the Fed's response.
Janet Yellen's prospective appointment to the post of Treasury Secretary in a Biden Administration has been construed bullishly by Wall Street, largely due to her previous experience at the Fed. She may, however, have difficulty reconciling her previous reputation as being a budget deficit hawk in an Administration committed to large fiscal stimulus.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was criticised for requesting the return of funds from the Fed from three facilities that were established to bolster financial conditions at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Aggregate financial conditions have eased significantly since the start of the pandemic, largely benefiting large firms, and thereby rendering the funds no longer necessary to be held at the Fed.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will retain their dovish bias via the prospective alteration of asset purchases, but there is less consensus about the exact structure of any future changes. Fed Chair Powell has repeatedly stressed downside risks to the economic outlook, but his reluctance to ease policy may indicate constraints on how much can effectively be achieved with new measures.
Recent US political events have had little impact on financial conditions, largely due to Wall Street firms embracing bullish scenarios for either election outcome. The speed at which any future tightening of financial conditions occurs will be critical in determining the nature of the Fed's response.
Janet Yellen's prospective appointment to the post of Treasury Secretary in a Biden Administration has been construed bullishly by Wall Street, largely due to her previous experience at the Fed. She may, however, have difficulty reconciling her previous reputation as being a budget deficit hawk in an Administration committed to large fiscal stimulus. 

Equity Bulls Eye New Treasury-Fed Nexus Under Yellen, Despite Rollback of Emergency Facilities

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

US bull energy remains well supported on dips and will lend support to the impulsive bull breakouts in Asia.Bull triangles are macro bullish for new chart highs. Will be measuring pullback energy within pattern ranges. Only the NDX shows a weaker lead bias to test the mid triangle range.SPX – Call for a pullback/rally stall from 3,600+ to test the resolve of 3,500 support (NDX below pattern resistance a correlation warning). Below 3,500 targets 3,420. Holding 3,500-10 is viewed as bullish for a new rally cycle.NDX flirting with the 12.1k breakout point. Fading from this triangle barrier has buy points at 11,600 (met) and 11,400. We like buying any move back within the triangle range.Stimulus expectations remain the core driver for risk as well as a weaker USD. We are alert to near term risks that would provide a buying opportunity - Extended bull sentiment, vaccine rollout wrinkles, and rising case counts/shutdowns.

US bull energy remains well supported on dips and will lend support to the impulsive bull breakouts in Asia.Bull triangles are macro bullish for new chart highs. Will be measuring pullback energy within pattern ranges. Only the NDX shows a weaker lead bias to test the mid triangle range.SPX – Call for a pullback/rally stall from 3,600+ to test the resolve of 3,500 support (NDX below pattern resistance a correlation warning). Below 3,500 targets 3,420. Holding 3,500-10 is viewed as bullish for a new rally cycle.NDX flirting with the 12.1k breakout point. Fading from this triangle barrier has buy points at 11,600 (met) and 11,400. We like buying any move back within the triangle range.Stimulus expectations remain the core driver for risk as well as a weaker USD. We are alert to near term risks that would provide a buying opportunity - Extended bull sentiment, vaccine rollout wrinkles, and rising case counts/shutdowns.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Mid December Equity Peak

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with some tailwinds for the US into the next key cycle timeline. USD near a cycle low expected...

Thomas Schroeder

Congenial Treasury-Fed Nexus Under Yellen Places Spotlight on Fiscal Policy Outlook

Major policy disagreements between the Fed and Treasury are unlikely with Janet Yellen heading the latter. Focus will shift towards how much leeway...

DeSaque Macro Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Breakouts On The Horizon

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are within striking distance of all-time highs and we believe breakouts are on the horizon. Our outlook remains bullish...

Vermilion Research

Equity Bulls Eye New Treasury-Fed Nexus Under Yellen, Despite Rollback of Emergency Facilities

The rollback of emergency facilities by the Treasury from the Fed is over-hyped. Equity bulls view a dovish nexus between the two institutions with...

DeSaque Macro Research

Buy SPX Dips for New Highs

US bull energy remains well supported on dips and will lend support to the impulsive bull breakouts in Asia. Bull triangles are macro bullish for...

Thomas Schroeder