Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index / Technical Analysis

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

The VIX Index has bounced off key levels over the past 24 hoursA close above 21.85%, if and when seen, would be an important break that would then argue for a test of at least 27% if not higher. None of what is suggested on this chart at the moment looks good for the S&amp;P 500

The VIX Index has bounced off key levels over the past 24 hoursA close above 21.85%, if and when seen, would be an important break that would then argue for a test of at least 27% if not higher. None of what is suggested on this chart at the moment looks good for the S&amp;P 500

Cross Asset Strategy

A number of charts are beginning to show some concerns that draw attention to the annual mantra: ‘Sell in May and Go Away’We look at different measures and patterns on each of the three major US indices – Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100.In all cases there are important indications that a decent correction down is likely this month (and possibly beyond). This period should eventually result in buying opportunities, however first we are likely to see some pain.

A number of charts are beginning to show some concerns that draw attention to the annual mantra: ‘Sell in May and Go Away’We look at different measures and patterns on each of the three major US indices – Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100.In all cases there are important indications that a decent correction down is likely this month (and possibly beyond). This period should eventually result in buying opportunities, however first we are likely to see some pain.

Having seen a decent bounce following the amazingly low NFP print last week, the S&amp;P 500 has not only failed to follow through but now shows signs of weakness as momentum fades. This note highlights key levels or target areas to now look out for.

Having seen a decent bounce following the amazingly low NFP print last week, the S&amp;P 500 has not only failed to follow through but now shows signs of weakness as momentum fades. This note highlights key levels or target areas to now look out for.

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

For years now, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> and its ardent fans haven’t worried that none of its businesses are profitable because it has sold billions of dollars in energy emissions credits to offset its rivers of red ink (see my latest report on this, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tesla-goes-to-record-extremes-to-create-q1-profits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50821" rel="noopener">Tesla Goes to Record Extremes To Create Q1 "Profits"</a> on 4/28/21).They dismissed concerns that every penny of cash it has ever banked came from selling said energy credits on top of selling billions in stock to said fans and borrowing even more in debt.Pull these pesky threads and everything can unravel quickly, as I long have warned (for example, in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tesla-the-sky-s-the-limit-until" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47414" rel="noopener">Tesla: The Sky's The Limit...Until</a> on 1/28/21).Sure enough, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stellantis-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:798:1" rel="noopener">Stellantis NV (STLA US)</a> told reporters this week that it <a href="https://europe.autonews.com/environmentemissions/stellantis-hit-emissions-target-without-teslas-help-ceo-tavares-says?utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expects to meet European emissions standards on its own</a> this year without buying any more credits from Tesla.That creates a big problem for Tesla because lucrative energy credit sales to Stellantis have been the primary source of all of Tesla’s manufactured “profits” since Q2 2019, which created:<ul>
<li>the basis for Tesla’s recent addition to the S&amp;P 500 Index</li>
<li>and its mythological equity valuation</li>
<li>and its ability to sell stock at grossly inflated prices</li>
<li>and its artificially inflated credit rating which lets it borrow with impunity at cheap rates.</li>
</ul>

For years now, Tesla Motors (TSLA US) and its ardent fans haven’t worried that none of its businesses are profitable because it has sold billions of dollars in energy emissions credits to offset its rivers of red ink (see my latest report on this, Tesla Goes to Record Extremes To Create Q1 "Profits" on 4/28/21).They dismissed concerns that every penny of cash it has ever banked came from selling said energy credits on top of selling billions in stock to said fans and borrowing even more in debt.Pull these pesky threads and everything can unravel quickly, as I long have warned (for example, in Tesla: The Sky's The Limit...Until on 1/28/21).Sure enough, Stellantis NV (STLA US) told reporters this week that it expects to meet European emissions standards on its own this year without buying any more credits from Tesla.That creates a big problem for Tesla because lucrative energy credit sales to Stellantis have been the primary source of all of Tesla’s manufactured “profits” since Q2 2019, which created:
the basis for Tesla’s recent addition to the S&amp;P 500 Index
and its mythological equity valuation
and its ability to sell stock at grossly inflated prices
and its artificially inflated credit rating which lets it borrow with impunity at cheap rates.


United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

The weight of the evidence suggests pullbacks to 4000-4040 on the S&P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. We also explain why we...

Vermilion Research

VIX: Any Higher and There’s Trouble

Developments on the VIX Index suggest we are probably going to enter a short term period of higher volatility that is likely to see a lower S&P 500

Shyam Devani

US Equities: Time to Get Defensive

Historical comparisons and a look at the price action of US Indices are giving warning signs that this is one of those years where 'Sell in May'...

Shyam Devani

S&P 500: The First Sign of Weakness

The S&P 500 now shows short term signs of weakness as momentum fades. This note highlights key levels or target areas to look out for.

Shyam Devani

Tesla: So Long, Free Money

Stellantis says it will stop buying billions of dollars in energy credits from Tesla, leaving a giant hole in Tesla's "profit" potential and...

Vicki Bryan