Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Technology.

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Earlier this month, the term "vaccine hesitancy" saw record mentions across the media on concern of "staggeringly low" confidence in COVID-19 vaccines (as per President-Elect Biden in a December 3 CNN interview, for example)</li>
<li>Although official surveys still suggest uptake intentions are in the low-60%s, both survey data and our own sentiment data suggest these figures have been encouragingly moving in the right direction and continue to improve in the MTD, supporting prevailing consensus recovery views for 2021 predicated on the vaccine rollout</li>
<li>A potential concern on the issue of vaccine uptake is the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant in the UK and potential public perception of reduced vaccine effectiveness as a result of mutations; thus far public health officials have dismissed such notions, but questions are likely to linger until more conclusive data is available</li>
</ul>
<div class="content-highlight">
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 
</div>


Earlier this month, the term "vaccine hesitancy" saw record mentions across the media on concern of "staggeringly low" confidence in COVID-19 vaccines (as per President-Elect Biden in a December 3 CNN interview, for example)
Although official surveys still suggest uptake intentions are in the low-60%s, both survey data and our own sentiment data suggest these figures have been encouragingly moving in the right direction and continue to improve in the MTD, supporting prevailing consensus recovery views for 2021 predicated on the vaccine rollout
A potential concern on the issue of vaccine uptake is the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant in the UK and potential public perception of reduced vaccine effectiveness as a result of mutations; thus far public health officials have dismissed such notions, but questions are likely to linger until more conclusive data is available


TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 


TMI Snapshot:  Vaccine Hesitancy Stories Dominate the News, But Uptake Sentiment Is Improving

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Despite the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for November 2020 (with payrolls rising by just 245K versus the consensus expectation of 469K), the US economy otherwise remains in robust health. The ISM manufacturing PMI gauges for October and November were the strongest two readings in 2020, with the leading indicator (new orders) suggesting that manufacturing will strengthen substantially further in 1H 2021. ISM's services PMI (56.3) was marginally (1.3 points) weaker in October-November than the June-September average, but still suggestive of a stable economy, with new orders (58) pointing to a healthy 1H 2021. The surging toll of Covid-19 cases and deaths in the US (which both climbed to new records for 7-day moving averages in the latest week) will bring forth an aggressive federal-government response from the incoming Biden administration, slightly slowing the momentum of the US economy in 1Q 2021. However, the emerging Biden cabinet is essentially a restoration of the centrist elements of the Obama-Biden team, with the economic team notably lacking any clear representatives of the Democratic left (the Sanders-Warren wing), instead packed with experienced hands like Janet Yellen (ex-Fed chair) as Treasury Secretary. The chair of the council of economic advisors (CEA) and national economic council (NEC), Cecilia Rouse and Brian Deese respectively, are both centrists, although the two other members of the CEA are from the left. The likelihood of an early roll-out of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, and rival ones by Moderna and Oxford/AstraZeneca will buoy markets and risk appetite for the rest of the year, despite the fact that global equities are very richly-valued. The Biden foreign policy team is notable for being manned by relative China doves: Biden himself said last year about China "they're not bad folks, folks"; his pick for Secretary of State (Anthony Blinken) said in July that a Biden administration will "re-engage and work with China" from a position of strength, while Biden's NSA (national security advisor) pick, Jake Sullivan, has spoken of "managed coexistence" with China. Despite hawkish language in the official Democratic platform, the Biden team's instincts are to be relatively soft on China. However, both houses of Congress have turned very hawkish on China, and the State Department published a 74-page document on 20 November 2020 entitled "The Elements of the China Challenge", very akin to Kennan's 1946 "Long Telegram" arguing for containment of the USSR, asserting that "in the face of the China challenge, the United States must secure freedom" around the world. Although the Biden team's instincts are more dovish (and this will ease the trade war by mid-2021), the tension between containment and "managed coexistence" will be an ongoing theme of the Biden administration.

Despite the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for November 2020 (with payrolls rising by just 245K versus the consensus expectation of 469K), the US economy otherwise remains in robust health. The ISM manufacturing PMI gauges for October and November were the strongest two readings in 2020, with the leading indicator (new orders) suggesting that manufacturing will strengthen substantially further in 1H 2021. ISM's services PMI (56.3) was marginally (1.3 points) weaker in October-November than the June-September average, but still suggestive of a stable economy, with new orders (58) pointing to a healthy 1H 2021. The surging toll of Covid-19 cases and deaths in the US (which both climbed to new records for 7-day moving averages in the latest week) will bring forth an aggressive federal-government response from the incoming Biden administration, slightly slowing the momentum of the US economy in 1Q 2021. However, the emerging Biden cabinet is essentially a restoration of the centrist elements of the Obama-Biden team, with the economic team notably lacking any clear representatives of the Democratic left (the Sanders-Warren wing), instead packed with experienced hands like Janet Yellen (ex-Fed chair) as Treasury Secretary. The chair of the council of economic advisors (CEA) and national economic council (NEC), Cecilia Rouse and Brian Deese respectively, are both centrists, although the two other members of the CEA are from the left. The likelihood of an early roll-out of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, and rival ones by Moderna and Oxford/AstraZeneca will buoy markets and risk appetite for the rest of the year, despite the fact that global equities are very richly-valued. The Biden foreign policy team is notable for being manned by relative China doves: Biden himself said last year about China "they're not bad folks, folks"; his pick for Secretary of State (Anthony Blinken) said in July that a Biden administration will "re-engage and work with China" from a position of strength, while Biden's NSA (national security advisor) pick, Jake Sullivan, has spoken of "managed coexistence" with China. Despite hawkish language in the official Democratic platform, the Biden team's instincts are to be relatively soft on China. However, both houses of Congress have turned very hawkish on China, and the State Department published a 74-page document on 20 November 2020 entitled "The Elements of the China Challenge", very akin to Kennan's 1946 "Long Telegram" arguing for containment of the USSR, asserting that "in the face of the China challenge, the United States must secure freedom" around the world. Although the Biden team's instincts are more dovish (and this will ease the trade war by mid-2021), the tension between containment and "managed coexistence" will be an ongoing theme of the Biden administration.  

US Economy Robust Despite Surging Covid Toll; Biden Cabinet Looks China-Positive

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. At the moment it is difficult to point to any problems in the market aside from increasingly bullish sentiment from market participants and the worry that things are getting overheated and over-extended. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Materials: Oil &amp; Gas Equip/Svcs., Large-Cap, Oil &amp; Gas Equip/Svcs., Small-Cap, Metals, Steel, Integrated, U.S., and Aluminum.

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. At the moment it is difficult to point to any problems in the market aside from increasingly bullish sentiment from market participants and the worry that things are getting overheated and over-extended. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Materials: Oil &amp; Gas Equip/Svcs., Large-Cap, Oil &amp; Gas Equip/Svcs., Small-Cap, Metals, Steel, Integrated, U.S., and Aluminum.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Too Good To Be True?

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> announced Tuesday morning that it plans to raise up to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-plans-stock-sale-closing-year-of-soaring-gains-11607444177?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$5 billion in new sales of stock</a> over time at prevailing market prices. As the third offering this year, including just three months ago, Tesla stands to raise more than $12 billion.And why not, say Tesla fans. With the stock up 674% so far this year, it has become only the <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-becomes-only-the-sixth-company-to-top-600-billion-in-value-51607377650" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sixth company ever to hit $600 </a><a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-becomes-only-the-sixth-company-to-top-600-billion-in-value-51607377650" target="_blank" rel="noopener">billion</a> in market value. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-to-be-added-to-s-p-500-index-11605566006?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In two weeks it will added</a> to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a>.Such blind enthusiasm dismisses Tesla's problematic sales trends, its chronic lack of core unprofitability and free cash flow, it's increasingly threatened prospects, and more.Or that Tesla needs to borrow every quarter and stretch its payables and sell record amounts of stock after reporting last January that it had “<a href="https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/O7WXQA_TSLA_Update_Letter_2019-4Q_BPWOH4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">grown to the point of being self-funding</a>.” Not even close.Yet investors remain unconcerned, and Tesla knows it.<div class="content-highlight">The full Bond Angle report continues below.</div>

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) announced Tuesday morning that it plans to raise up to $5 billion in new sales of stock over time at prevailing market prices. As the third offering this year, including just three months ago, Tesla stands to raise more than $12 billion.And why not, say Tesla fans. With the stock up 674% so far this year, it has become only the sixth company ever to hit $600 billion in market value. In two weeks it will added to the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX).Such blind enthusiasm dismisses Tesla's problematic sales trends, its chronic lack of core unprofitability and free cash flow, it's increasingly threatened prospects, and more.Or that Tesla needs to borrow every quarter and stretch its payables and sell record amounts of stock after reporting last January that it had “grown to the point of being self-funding.” Not even close.Yet investors remain unconcerned, and Tesla knows it.The full Bond Angle report continues below.

Tesla to Sell Another $5 Billion in Stock—Might As Well

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain...

Vermilion Research

TMI Snapshot: Vaccine Hesitancy Stories Dominate the News, But Uptake Sentiment Is Improving

Despite elevated concerns on "vaccine hesitancy" in the media, we see sustained improvement in sentiment on COVID-19 vaccines in the MTD across a...

Elan Gore

US Economy Robust Despite Surging Covid Toll; Biden Cabinet Looks China-Positive

ISM surveys suggest manufacturing and services will stay strong in 1H 2021 despite the weak NFP. Biden's centrist and China-dovish team, plus...

Prasenjit K. Basu

U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Too Good To Be True?

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks...

Vermilion Research

Tesla to Sell Another $5 Billion in Stock—Might As Well

Tesla is selling another $5 billion in stock—because it can and, surprisingly, it probably needs the cash. That doesn't mean investors should buy.

Vicki Bryan