Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Our SPX pullback view from 4,500+ (reduced long exposure) is meeting our 4,400 pullback objective where we expected a tactical rally if this level holds. We are seeing more ominous pressure points build after a bounce attempt.DJI and RTY have been our short plays from early September highs. Plan to hold these shorts as we try the long side at SPX 4,400 +/-. USD add call on September 3 (we called to buy the USD on dips) reaching for the DXY 94 PT.Trendline and price pivot support critical to hold early this week. A break would call to press on our short group in Europe and Asia.Bear divergence and MACD break of support stands out as a key risk- off concern.AAII bear sentiment and sell volumes spiked on Friday (futures expiry is a likely culprit of noise).US 10yr yield breakout above 1.37% targets 1.50%.Not only is market breadth and divergence a problem spot but the US faces government debt ceiling jitters, workforce vaccine backlash and a bond yield push above 1.37% (inflation concerns resurface) that could add to or be a catalyst to the weak technical posture.A key inflection point is at hand.

Our SPX pullback view from 4,500+ (reduced long exposure) is meeting our 4,400 pullback objective where we expected a tactical rally if this level holds. We are seeing more ominous pressure points build after a bounce attempt.DJI and RTY have been our short plays from early September highs. Plan to hold these shorts as we try the long side at SPX 4,400 +/-. USD add call on September 3 (we called to buy the USD on dips) reaching for the DXY 94 PT.Trendline and price pivot support critical to hold early this week. A break would call to press on our short group in Europe and Asia.Bear divergence and MACD break of support stands out as a key risk- off concern.AAII bear sentiment and sell volumes spiked on Friday (futures expiry is a likely culprit of noise).US 10yr yield breakout above 1.37% targets 1.50%.Not only is market breadth and divergence a problem spot but the US faces government debt ceiling jitters, workforce vaccine backlash and a bond yield push above 1.37% (inflation concerns resurface) that could add to or be a catalyst to the weak technical posture.A key inflection point is at hand.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

China's zero tolerance for the COVID-19 virus has had important implications for its economy and corporate sector, notably the end of a predictable recovery due to new lockdowns. US corporations are facing uncertainties related to the removal of fiscal support, while the residual threat of new lockdowns are much lower in the US compared to China.
Corporations in China face the risk of revenue visibility drying up quickly due to new lockdowns, while their financial performance can no longer be boosted by the promise of continued stimulus from the government. Meanwhile, the objectives of economic policy have shifted from innovation and growth towards national security and social equity, an outcome underscored by clampdowns in various sectors that could adversely impact access to capital. 
US corporations face uncertainties about aggregate demand stemming from the potential removal of fiscal policy support, as well as higher corporate taxes, at a time when consumers are looking a little fatigued. Excluding autos, there is not significant pent-up consumer demand for goods, a backdrop which the Fed will monitor, while capital spending still appears to be well-underpinned.
The macro backdrop in China warrants a cautious outlook for corporate profits, including the inability of companies to pass on rising producer prices to consumers and elevated unemployment for young workers creating a more cautious environment for consumer spending. US corporate profit expectations for 2022 are being scaled back, while valuations are rich against rising inflation, although investors in Treasury Inflation Protected securities believe the increase will be temporary.

China's zero tolerance for the COVID-19 virus has had important implications for its economy and corporate sector, notably the end of a predictable recovery due to new lockdowns. US corporations are facing uncertainties related to the removal of fiscal support, while the residual threat of new lockdowns are much lower in the US compared to China.
Corporations in China face the risk of revenue visibility drying up quickly due to new lockdowns, while their financial performance can no longer be boosted by the promise of continued stimulus from the government. Meanwhile, the objectives of economic policy have shifted from innovation and growth towards national security and social equity, an outcome underscored by clampdowns in various sectors that could adversely impact access to capital. 
US corporations face uncertainties about aggregate demand stemming from the potential removal of fiscal policy support, as well as higher corporate taxes, at a time when consumers are looking a little fatigued. Excluding autos, there is not significant pent-up consumer demand for goods, a backdrop which the Fed will monitor, while capital spending still appears to be well-underpinned.
The macro backdrop in China warrants a cautious outlook for corporate profits, including the inability of companies to pass on rising producer prices to consumers and elevated unemployment for young workers creating a more cautious environment for consumer spending. US corporate profit expectations for 2022 are being scaled back, while valuations are rich against rising inflation, although investors in Treasury Inflation Protected securities believe the increase will be temporary. 

China and US Corporate Outlooks: COVID-19 Legacies Present Different Challenges

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

The pullback on the S&amp;P 500 has taken us to the trend support and 55 day moving average once again in the 4,419-4,436 region (on the E-mini future chart). So far we have held those supports thus giving a good opportunity to re-establish longs, albeit with a tight stop

The pullback on the S&amp;P 500 has taken us to the trend support and 55 day moving average once again in the 4,419-4,436 region (on the E-mini future chart). So far we have held those supports thus giving a good opportunity to re-establish longs, albeit with a tight stop

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

The market environment remains very mixed, with constant Sector rotations resulting in very few Sectors out- or under-performing for sustained periods. At the same time, market dynamics give us little-to-no reason to be bearish (aside from the simple fact that the S&amp;P 500 has not pulled back even 5% for over 6 months). Growth Sectors (Communications, Technology) and large-caps (S&amp;P 500) have been the primary winners and we recommend sticking with them until we see evidence of change. To that end, we are watching 1.38-1.45% on the 10-year Treasury yield; as long as the 10-year is below this level we expect to see growth and large-caps continue to outperform, however a break above 1.45% would likely signal a shift in favor of value and small-caps.Charts Highlighted: SPX, WTI Crude Oil, XOP, US Dollar, DXJ, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, METC, HNRG, CCJ, PALAF, DNN, UUUU, UEC, LEU, ATCO, MATX, SBLK, CMRE, GSL, GNK, NMM, EGLE, DSX, SB, and ESEA

The market environment remains very mixed, with constant Sector rotations resulting in very few Sectors out- or under-performing for sustained periods. At the same time, market dynamics give us little-to-no reason to be bearish (aside from the simple fact that the S&amp;P 500 has not pulled back even 5% for over 6 months). Growth Sectors (Communications, Technology) and large-caps (S&amp;P 500) have been the primary winners and we recommend sticking with them until we see evidence of change. To that end, we are watching 1.38-1.45% on the 10-year Treasury yield; as long as the 10-year is below this level we expect to see growth and large-caps continue to outperform, however a break above 1.45% would likely signal a shift in favor of value and small-caps.Charts Highlighted: SPX, WTI Crude Oil, XOP, US Dollar, DXJ, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, METC, HNRG, CCJ, PALAF, DNN, UUUU, UEC, LEU, ATCO, MATX, SBLK, CMRE, GSL, GNK, NMM, EGLE, DSX, SB, and ESEA

S&P 500 Near Support; Watching Energy For Strength; Buying Coal, Uranium Miners, & Dry-Bulk Shippers

DJI break below 35k trendline support and SPX below 4,518 pivot support triggers for a September pullback with SPX 4,400/4,370 inflection support that if broken would see bear divergence dominate the cycle.Meaningful DJI trendline support break and did close below 34,700 price support. SPX met our 4,545 rally projection (reduce call) and broke our 4,518 pivot support (tactical pullback trigger). NDX broke pivot support at 15,500.SPX trendline support at 4,400 is the tactical must hold and buy support. What happens if this inflection support is broken? The weekly cycle sheds light on lower level support targets.

DJI break below 35k trendline support and SPX below 4,518 pivot support triggers for a September pullback with SPX 4,400/4,370 inflection support that if broken would see bear divergence dominate the cycle.Meaningful DJI trendline support break and did close below 34,700 price support. SPX met our 4,545 rally projection (reduce call) and broke our 4,518 pivot support (tactical pullback trigger). NDX broke pivot support at 15,500.SPX trendline support at 4,400 is the tactical must hold and buy support. What happens if this inflection support is broken? The weekly cycle sheds light on lower level support targets.

US Pivot Break, Buy/Bigger Inflection Level

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

SPX 4,400 Big Pivot for Global Risk

SPX pullback view from 4,500+ (reduced long exposure) is meeting our 4,400 target where we see a tactical rally if this level holds. More ominous...

Thomas Schroeder

China and US Corporate Outlooks: COVID-19 Legacies Present Different Challenges

China and the US adopted different strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic. Companies in these two countries will face different legacy issues, but a...

DeSaque Macro Research

S&P 500: Pullback Finished

The correction down on the S&P 500 over the past week now looks to be over as we hold good supports and start showing fresh signs of stabilisation ...

Shyam Devani

S&P 500 Near Support; Watching Energy For Strength; Buying Coal, Uranium Miners, & Dry-Bulk Shippers

On August 31 we noted to expect some consolidation in the S&P 500 after it hit our 4535 initial target. The S&P 500 is now testing key support at...

Vermilion Research

US Pivot Break, Buy/Bigger Inflection Level

DJI 35k trendline support break/SPX below 4,518 pivot support triggers for a September pullback with SPX 4,400/4,370 inflection support that if...

Thomas Schroeder