Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Financial crises are essentially scrambles for liquidity
</li>
<li>Liquidity supply has lately been dominated by Central Bank infusions
</li>
<li>Post-1990s crises triggered by tight Central Banks and foreign capital outflows</li>
<li>Pre-1980s crises triggered by high inflations and private sector cash drains</li>
<li>Worsening inflation and the upcoming Fed taper need to be watched.</li>
</ul>


Financial crises are essentially scrambles for liquidity

Liquidity supply has lately been dominated by Central Bank infusions

Post-1990s crises triggered by tight Central Banks and foreign capital outflows
Pre-1980s crises triggered by high inflations and private sector cash drains
Worsening inflation and the upcoming Fed taper need to be watched.


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

US equities are due for a rally pause after an impressive run from mid-October low. We are keen to buy a pullback of SPX 100 points (near 4,440) for new highs in November (4,590). ST charts show primary pullback support where we are a buyer of risk again.The projection at 4,554 gels with the underside of broken trendline as the rally stall zone.Pullback target shows price and retracement synergy with the top just registered.Earnings season may have a few surprises in store this week.

US equities are due for a rally pause after an impressive run from mid-October low. We are keen to buy a pullback of SPX 100 points (near 4,440) for new highs in November (4,590). ST charts show primary pullback support where we are a buyer of risk again.The projection at 4,554 gels with the underside of broken trendline as the rally stall zone.Pullback target shows price and retracement synergy with the top just registered.Earnings season may have a few surprises in store this week.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

We continue to see a steady flow of risk-on signals that have us moving toward an outright bullish outlook for the broad US equity market. Below we discuss several bullish developments that leads us to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" that we have referenced since late March.Charts highlighted: XLF, KBE, Copper, US Dollar, IWD, XLY, Bitcoin, S&amp;P 500, APO, LPLA, ARCC, JHG, KKR, ALLY, CACC, OMF, CIT, WD, GATX, LC, CODI, WRLD, ATLC, BCPC, TROX, ASPN, ASIX, LXU, HWKN, MOS, CF, ICL, SQM, UAN, IPI

We continue to see a steady flow of risk-on signals that have us moving toward an outright bullish outlook for the broad US equity market. Below we discuss several bullish developments that leads us to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" that we have referenced since late March.Charts highlighted: XLF, KBE, Copper, US Dollar, IWD, XLY, Bitcoin, S&amp;P 500, APO, LPLA, ARCC, JHG, KKR, ALLY, CACC, OMF, CIT, WD, GATX, LC, CODI, WRLD, ATLC, BCPC, TROX, ASPN, ASIX, LXU, HWKN, MOS, CF, ICL, SQM, UAN, IPI

Upgrading Financials To Overweight; Downgrading Communications To Market Weight

Our base case called for buying risk (SPX and NDX) in mid October for a drive to new highs in November. SPX stall is due near the September high setting up a pullback to buy.Near term high zone rests at 4,540 with a throw over projection at 4,554 that is expected to mark a top to induce a pullback.Pullback is expected to be of a similar amplitude to that seen from October 7-13th.Call is to add to SPX long/risk overall on a dip for new highs in November and then will re calibrate overbought readings.

Our base case called for buying risk (SPX and NDX) in mid October for a drive to new highs in November. SPX stall is due near the September high setting up a pullback to buy.Near term high zone rests at 4,540 with a throw over projection at 4,554 that is expected to mark a top to induce a pullback.Pullback is expected to be of a similar amplitude to that seen from October 7-13th.Call is to add to SPX long/risk overall on a dip for new highs in November and then will re calibrate overbought readings.

SPX Rally Stall - Buy Weakness for November New Highs

Market dynamics remain largely healthy, and new developments continue to point to improving risk appetites. Still, Energy (XOP, RYE) is the only cyclical value Sector that has been able to decisively break to new price highs, while others remain in congestion. Therefore, our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall, and we see pullbacks as buying opportunities.Charts highlighted: XLF, Copper, IWM, MCHI, KRE, XLB, S&amp;P 500, CNQ, SU, IMO, CVE, OVV, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, HES, DVN, CLR, CFR, PB, BOKF, IBTX, TBK, BSVN, BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, TFC, FITB, KEY, RF, and CMA

Market dynamics remain largely healthy, and new developments continue to point to improving risk appetites. Still, Energy (XOP, RYE) is the only cyclical value Sector that has been able to decisively break to new price highs, while others remain in congestion. Therefore, our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall, and we see pullbacks as buying opportunities.Charts highlighted: XLF, Copper, IWM, MCHI, KRE, XLB, S&amp;P 500, CNQ, SU, IMO, CVE, OVV, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, HES, DVN, CLR, CFR, PB, BOKF, IBTX, TBK, BSVN, BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, TFC, FITB, KEY, RF, and CMA

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk Appetites Improving; Watching Financials, Copper, US Dollar

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

What Triggers Financial Crises?

We show what to watch for in order to spot a coming financial crisis. Deteriorating liquidity is key. Latest data warn that 41% of Central Banks...

Michael J. Howell

SPX Pullback Target Ahead of New Highs

US equities are due for a rally pause after an impressive run from mid-October low. We are keen to buy a pullback of SPX 100 points (near 4,440)...

Thomas Schroeder

Upgrading Financials To Overweight; Downgrading Communications To Market Weight

We are upgrading Financials to overweight; Financial Sector ETFs (XLF, RYF), banks (KBE, KRE), and insurance stocks (KIE) are all breaking out to...

Vermilion Research

SPX Rally Stall - Buy Weakness for November New Highs

Our base case called for buying risk (SPX and NDX) in mid October for a drive to new highs in November. SPX stall is due near the September high...

Thomas Schroeder

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk Appetites Improving; Watching Financials, Copper, US Dollar

Financials (XLF) are on the cusp of a breakout above $39, while copper is on the cusp of a breakout above $4.38; breakouts above resistance would...

Vermilion Research