Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

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Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

China's zero tolerance for the COVID-19 virus has had important implications for its economy and corporate sector, notably the end of a predictable recovery due to new lockdowns. US corporations are facing uncertainties related to the removal of fiscal support, while the residual threat of new lockdowns are much lower in the US compared to China.
Corporations in China face the risk of revenue visibility drying up quickly due to new lockdowns, while their financial performance can no longer be boosted by the promise of continued stimulus from the government. Meanwhile, the objectives of economic policy have shifted from innovation and growth towards national security and social equity, an outcome underscored by clampdowns in various sectors that could adversely impact access to capital. 
US corporations face uncertainties about aggregate demand stemming from the potential removal of fiscal policy support, as well as higher corporate taxes, at a time when consumers are looking a little fatigued. Excluding autos, there is not significant pent-up consumer demand for goods, a backdrop which the Fed will monitor, while capital spending still appears to be well-underpinned.
The macro backdrop in China warrants a cautious outlook for corporate profits, including the inability of companies to pass on rising producer prices to consumers and elevated unemployment for young workers creating a more cautious environment for consumer spending. US corporate profit expectations for 2022 are being scaled back, while valuations are rich against rising inflation, although investors in Treasury Inflation Protected securities believe the increase will be temporary.

China's zero tolerance for the COVID-19 virus has had important implications for its economy and corporate sector, notably the end of a predictable recovery due to new lockdowns. US corporations are facing uncertainties related to the removal of fiscal support, while the residual threat of new lockdowns are much lower in the US compared to China.
Corporations in China face the risk of revenue visibility drying up quickly due to new lockdowns, while their financial performance can no longer be boosted by the promise of continued stimulus from the government. Meanwhile, the objectives of economic policy have shifted from innovation and growth towards national security and social equity, an outcome underscored by clampdowns in various sectors that could adversely impact access to capital. 
US corporations face uncertainties about aggregate demand stemming from the potential removal of fiscal policy support, as well as higher corporate taxes, at a time when consumers are looking a little fatigued. Excluding autos, there is not significant pent-up consumer demand for goods, a backdrop which the Fed will monitor, while capital spending still appears to be well-underpinned.
The macro backdrop in China warrants a cautious outlook for corporate profits, including the inability of companies to pass on rising producer prices to consumers and elevated unemployment for young workers creating a more cautious environment for consumer spending. US corporate profit expectations for 2022 are being scaled back, while valuations are rich against rising inflation, although investors in Treasury Inflation Protected securities believe the increase will be temporary. 

China and US Corporate Outlooks: COVID-19 Legacies Present Different Challenges