Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Rising valuations during the COVID-19 pandemic reinforce the view of an inherent capacity to overshoot to the upside, but it is too early to conclude that subsequent compression is over. </li>
<li>Compression in US equity prices in 2022 lowered secular valuation indicators, but they are not indicating the emergence of the deep long-term value that occurred in the 1970s and 1980s.</li>
<li>The prolonged period of P/E multiple compression in the aftermath of the internet bubble bursting meant that US equity returns became earnings-driven, an outcome that is likely to repeat. </li>
</ul>


Rising valuations during the COVID-19 pandemic reinforce the view of an inherent capacity to overshoot to the upside, but it is too early to conclude that subsequent compression is over. 
Compression in US equity prices in 2022 lowered secular valuation indicators, but they are not indicating the emergence of the deep long-term value that occurred in the 1970s and 1980s.
The prolonged period of P/E multiple compression in the aftermath of the internet bubble bursting meant that US equity returns became earnings-driven, an outcome that is likely to repeat. 


US Equity Valuations: Less Expensive, but Not Indicating the Emergence of Deep Value

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

<ul>
<li>Chinese equity vol has been high over the last few months with extreme market moves on a number of headlines but is starting to calm down</li>
<li>US equity volatility continues to screen cheap despite calls for a challenging year and likely recession</li>
<li>We consider 2 relative vol trades to play a narrowing of the spread</li>
</ul>


Chinese equity vol has been high over the last few months with extreme market moves on a number of headlines but is starting to calm down
US equity volatility continues to screen cheap despite calls for a challenging year and likely recession
We consider 2 relative vol trades to play a narrowing of the spread


EQD | HSI Index Vs SPX Index: Sell Chinese Equity Vol to Buy US Equity Vol

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.</li>
<li>We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).</li>
<li>With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target</li>
</ul>


We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target


Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

<ul>
<li>US CPI data is due on Thursday 12th January and is likley to be another important data point</li>
<li>SPX Index is down nearly 5% since November and NDX Index is down nearly 8% over the same period</li>
<li>We look for short-term trading opportunities in the options market</li>
</ul>


US CPI data is due on Thursday 12th January and is likley to be another important data point
SPX Index is down nearly 5% since November and NDX Index is down nearly 8% over the same period
We look for short-term trading opportunities in the options market


EQD | SPX and NDX : Its US CPI Time and We Look at Trading Opportunites in the Options Market

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US Equity Valuations: Less Expensive, but Not Indicating the Emergence of Deep Value

US equity valuations have displayed a tendency to overshoot to the upside over the past 30 years. Despite recent compression, prospective and...

DeSaque Macro Research

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

EQD | HSI Index Vs SPX Index: Sell Chinese Equity Vol to Buy US Equity Vol

We consider the volatility outlook for Chinese equities versus those in the US. We identify two relative value volatility spreads to monetise our...

Simon Harris

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

With yesterday's break above 3910 in $SPX we see a tradable rally, but 4100-4165 is likely to cap upside; reduce risk into that area. Buy ideas...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX and NDX : Its US CPI Time and We Look at Trading Opportunites in the Options Market

We take a look at the upcoming CPI release in the US. We consider what moves are priced in to the derivatives market and look for short-term...

Simon Harris