Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Core PCE increased 6.9%MoM (annualized) in Jan'23, and hence was up 4.71%YoY, moving further away from the FOMC's 2%YoY target (rather than edging towards it as had been expected). </li>
<li>M2 growth averaging 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22 (vs a pre-Covid average of 6.8%YoY in the previous 60 years) is the cause. FedFunds must rise to 5.5% by May'23 to compensate.</li>
<li>Severely inverted yield curve indicates that a recession (from Q2CY23 onward) will also help generate slack, taming inflation. Any delay in recession's onset will entail even more rate hikes. </li>
</ul>


Core PCE increased 6.9%MoM (annualized) in Jan'23, and hence was up 4.71%YoY, moving further away from the FOMC's 2%YoY target (rather than edging towards it as had been expected). 
M2 growth averaging 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22 (vs a pre-Covid average of 6.8%YoY in the previous 60 years) is the cause. FedFunds must rise to 5.5% by May'23 to compensate.
Severely inverted yield curve indicates that a recession (from Q2CY23 onward) will also help generate slack, taming inflation. Any delay in recession's onset will entail even more rate hikes. 


US: Inflation Shock Implies More Rate Hikes Needed Even as Recession Looms

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 4.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.9%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 3.3%).</li><li>Advanced Transportation Solutions (70.2% of the index) drove the underperformance, falling 6.0% , while Energy Technology (8.3% of index) was down 5.4% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was down 1.9%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: NNOMF, LMRMF, VMC.V, APPH, FIX, AROC, LOOP, KTOS, CUBXF, TPIC</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 4.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.9%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 3.3%).Advanced Transportation Solutions (70.2% of the index) drove the underperformance, falling 6.0% , while Energy Technology (8.3% of index) was down 5.4% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was down 1.9%.Top 10 Performers: NNOMF, LMRMF, VMC.V, APPH, FIX, AROC, LOOP, KTOS, CUBXF, TPIC

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended February 24, 2023

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>European markets have begun to outperform their US peers over last few months</li>
<li>The differences in market sentiment have driven both the implied and realised vol spread wider </li>
<li>Trade a relative vol spread that should hold up in multiple market scenarios</li>
</ul>


European markets have begun to outperform their US peers over last few months
The differences in market sentiment have driven both the implied and realised vol spread wider 
Trade a relative vol spread that should hold up in multiple market scenarios


EQD | SPX Vs SX5E: Trade a Relative Value Vol Spread

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

Microstrategy Inc Cl A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>TSS or "Trend Sustainability Score" is our proprietary momentum based tactical methodology. TSS has a proven record of identifying the exhaustion points in interim trends. </li>
<li>On 17 February 2023 TSS identified exhaustion in the MSTR US uptrend and targeted a minimum 10% reversal in 1-2 weeks.</li>
<li>On 24 February 2023 MSTR US completed a 12.4% reversal from 284.03 to 248.87.</li>
</ul>


TSS or "Trend Sustainability Score" is our proprietary momentum based tactical methodology. TSS has a proven record of identifying the exhaustion points in interim trends. 
On 17 February 2023 TSS identified exhaustion in the MSTR US uptrend and targeted a minimum 10% reversal in 1-2 weeks.
On 24 February 2023 MSTR US completed a 12.4% reversal from 284.03 to 248.87.


MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): 12.4% Profit Target Achieved in 5 Days

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US: Inflation Shock Implies More Rate Hikes Needed Even as Recession Looms

M2 grew 18.2%YoY in Mar20-Feb22; its 1.3%YoY decline in Dec'22 didn't stop a 6.9%MoM annualized rise in core PCE in Jan23. Fed Funds rate needs to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended February 24, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 4.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.7%), the Russell 2000 Index...

Water Tower Research

EQD | SPX Vs SX5E: Trade a Relative Value Vol Spread

European markets have been outperforming their US peers and these spot differences have helped to create a wider than usual vol differential. We...

Simon Harris

MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): 12.4% Profit Target Achieved in 5 Days

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris