Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Parts of the apparel/fashion sector made a complete recovery last year but performance was patchy, with high rates of growth from a few but more had sales below 2019.</li>
<li>2023-24 should be a stellar year thanks to inbound tourism growth and healthier, if still hesitant, domestic demand.</li>
<li>While profitability has risen significantly, the pressure to keep prices down is widening the gap between efficient operators and the rest.</li>
</ul>


Parts of the apparel/fashion sector made a complete recovery last year but performance was patchy, with high rates of growth from a few but more had sales below 2019.
2023-24 should be a stellar year thanks to inbound tourism growth and healthier, if still hesitant, domestic demand.
While profitability has risen significantly, the pressure to keep prices down is widening the gap between efficient operators and the rest.


Japan's Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/march-2024-nikkei-225-rebal-look-for-zozo-ryohin-keikaku-and-maybe-a-socionext-split" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112214" rel="noopener">March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Look for Zozo, Ryohin Keikaku, and Maybe a Socionext Split</a> I suggested <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> needed a stock split to get in.</li>
<li>Today after the close, Socionext reported H1, guided up full-year earnings (still too conservative), raised its div, and announced a 5:1 stock split for Jan1 2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO Corp (6146 JP)</a> is now likely to be a top 75, which leaves the question of which Consumer Goods stock would likely be added. </li>
</ul>


In March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Look for Zozo, Ryohin Keikaku, and Maybe a Socionext Split I suggested Socionext (6526 JP) needed a stock split to get in.
Today after the close, Socionext reported H1, guided up full-year earnings (still too conservative), raised its div, and announced a 5:1 stock split for Jan1 2024. 

DISCO Corp (6146 JP) is now likely to be a top 75, which leaves the question of which Consumer Goods stock would likely be added. 


March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Socionext, Disco and a Consumer Goods Stock (Ryohin Keikaku?) To ADD

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> stops trading this week and should be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs in the ASX indices.</li>
<li>Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)/ Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 6-28x ADV (11-50% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 2.8-44x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> could be capped at 11% of the index weight and there will be buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> due to the stepwise addition.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 6-28x ADV (11-50% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 2.8-44x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) could be capped at 11% of the index weight and there will be buying in Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) due to the stepwise addition.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team announced the changes to the Nikkei 225. That triggers flows of about ¥480bn a side, and some big, big changes.</li>
<li>As interest rates and inflation remain high, investors will (should) continue to prefer lower-risk investments over higher-risk growth companies such as de-SPACed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a> transaction looks done. However, Gina Rinehart may have other ideas.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Index Team announced the changes to the Nikkei 225. That triggers flows of about ¥480bn a side, and some big, big changes.
As interest rates and inflation remain high, investors will (should) continue to prefer lower-risk investments over higher-risk growth companies such as de-SPACed Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK).
The Liontown Resources (LTR AU) / Albemarle Corp (ALB US) transaction looks done. However, Gina Rinehart may have other ideas.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Nikkei 225 Flow, Aquila Acquisition, Axiata, Intage, Liontown/Albemarle

Japan

J. FRONT RETAILING CO., Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Daimaru and Matsuzakaya.  J. FRONT RETAILING operates department stores and supermarkets. The Company also manages subsidiaries which operate in wholesale businesses.

Takashimaya Company, Limited., founded in Kyoto in 1831, operates department stores.  The Company's main stores are located in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Takashimaya also operates department stores in Paris, France, Singapore, China, Australia, and New York, USA.  The Company retails clothing, foods, art objects, sundry goods, and household utensils.  The Company also operates restaurants.

MARUI GROUP CO., LTD. operates department stores which sell clothing, accessories, home appliances, and food stuffs.  The Company also provides consumer loan services.  Marui Group operates in the Tokyo area.

H2O RETAILING CORPORATION founded in Osaka in 1929, operates railway terminal department stores.  The Company's main store is located at Hankyu terminal in Umeda (Osaka) and sells clothing, foods, sundry goods, furniture, and household utensils.  H2O Retailing also operates restaurants and coffee shops.

Mercari, Inc. operates as an electronic commercial company. The Company offers electronic commercial software, operation management, marketing planning, and other marketplace services. Mercari serves customers worldwide.

Seria Co., Ltd. operates 100 yen chain stores nationwide.   The Company also operates franchise business.  Seria's main product line includes household goods and snacks.

IZUMI CO., LTD. operates shopping centers mainly in the Chugoku area, selling food products, clothing, and household utensils.  The Company also operates real estate business and credit card services.

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. is a holding company established through a merger of Mitsukoshi and Isetan. The group operates department stores nationwide, selling clothing, foods, household goods, cosmetics and general merchandise.

FUJI CO., LTD. operates shopping center chain mainly in the Shikoku and the Chugoku regions.  The Company mainly sells foodstuffs, clothing, and sundry goods.  Fuji also operates home entertainment stores, BACH, which sells books, CDs, videos, and video games.  The Company also operates sports fitness centers. The Company provides credit card service.

Kintetsu Department Store Co., Ltd. operates department stores mainly in Osaka, Nara, Kyoto, and other Kansai prefectures. The Company sells clothing, foods, as well as other household items. Kintetsu Department Store also operates restaurants.

Harvey Norman Holdings Limited is a holding company for companies and trusts in a third party franchise agreement. The franchises operate stores under the name "Harvey Norman Discounts," selling home wares and electrical goods. The Company also provides advisory and advertising to the franchises. In addition, the Company provides consumer finance and has property investments.

Hainan Island Construction Co Ltd.  is a property development company. The Company also operates regional malls and hotels.

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co., Ltd operates supermarkets and department stores in Guangzhou, China.  The Company sells a variety of consumer products, including apparel, food and beverages, electronics, jewelry, cosmetics, and electric appliances.  Guangzhou Friendship also leases real estate properties.

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co, Ltd. (000987 CH)

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates a chain of retail stores that offers brand name products at discounted and closeout prices. The Company provides products, including housewares, food, books and stationery, bed and bath, floor coverings, toys, and hardware.

Ollie'S Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI US)

Macy's, Inc. operates department stores in the United States.  The Company also operates direct mail catalog and electronic commerce subsidiaries. Macy's retail stores sell a wide range of merchandise, including men's, women's and children's apparel and accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods.

Nordstrom, Inc. is a fashion retailer of apparel, shoes, and accessories for men, women, and children.  The Company operates through multiple retail channels, discount stores, boutiques, catalogs, and on the Internet. Nordstrom, Inc. also offers, through a subsidiary, private label card credit and debit cards.

B&M European Value Retail S.A. operates as a general merchandise discount retailer. The Company sells products ranging electronics to home goods.

Canadian Tire Corporation Limited is a family of businesses that includes a retail segment, a financial services division and CT REIT. The Company's retail business provides Canadians with products for life in Canada across its living, playing, fixing, automotive and seasonal categories. Canadian Tire Corporation's  retail products include casual, industrial and active wear.

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

Central Retail Corp Ltd operates general merchandise stores. The Company offers electronics, sports, stationery, home improvement, and office products. Central Retail serves customers in Thailand.

RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO., LTD. is a retailer and wholesaler of Mujirushi Ryohin brand products, which were originally a generic private-brand product.  The Company's product line includes knitwear, food, and household items

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Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

Japan's Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward

Apparel sector's recovery in 2022 was uneven. Tourism and domestic demand are expected to boost 2023-24 sales, but pricing pressure is widening...

Michael Causton

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Socionext, Disco and a Consumer Goods Stock (Ryohin Keikaku?) To ADD

Socionext (6526) has announced a stock split. That means it is likely to get into Nikkei 225 in March 2024. Disco is now an ADD too. Zozo or Ryohin...

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There could be 3 changes in March + Fast Retailing capping. Stepwise inclusion of Nitori too. Socionext could be an add if it splits its stock. As...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Nikkei 225 Flow, Aquila Acquisition, Axiata, Intage, Liontown/Albemarle

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan's Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward

​Apparel sector's recovery in 2022 was uneven. Tourism and domestic demand are expected to boost 2023-24 sales, but pricing pressure is widening...

Michael Causton

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Socionext, Disco and a Consumer Goods Stock (Ryohin Keikaku?) To ADD

Socionext (6526) has announced a stock split. That means it is likely to get into Nikkei 225 in March 2024. Disco is now an ADD too. Zozo or Ryohin...

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There could be 3 changes in March + Fast Retailing capping. Stepwise inclusion of Nitori too. Socionext could be an add if it splits its stock. As...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Nikkei 225 Flow, Aquila Acquisition, Axiata, Intage, Liontown/Albemarle

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Apparel sector's recovery in 2022 was uneven. Tourism and domestic demand are expected to boost 2023-24 sales, but pricing pressure is widening...