Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ryohin Keikaku made a big splash in 2021 when it announced a sales target of ¥3 trillion by 2030, more than a six-fold increase. </li>
<li>Following a reshuffling of management, targets have been slashed but growth rates still remain impressive with a near doubling of sales by 2030.</li>
<li>At home, the push into food is working and at last, overseas markets are getting the attention they deserve. The next Uniqlo?</li>
</ul>


Ryohin Keikaku made a big splash in 2021 when it announced a sales target of ¥3 trillion by 2030, more than a six-fold increase. 
Following a reshuffling of management, targets have been slashed but growth rates still remain impressive with a near doubling of sales by 2030.
At home, the push into food is working and at last, overseas markets are getting the attention they deserve. The next Uniqlo?


Muji Growing Fast but Not to ¥3 Trillion by 2030

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.</li>
<li>Recently, Yanai-san sold more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>. There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).</li>
<li>There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).
There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

<ul>
<li>Ryohin Keikaku's biggest weakness is its unwieldy and expensive supply chains, with hundreds of suppliers across its three main categories of household, apparel and food.</li>
<li>The Muji operator just acquired a large team from one of its principle clothing supply partners, Mitsubishi, to finally streamline its supply chains and improve cost performance in clothing. </li>
<li>This should have a positive impact on its cost of goods, margins and inventory levels, allowing for quicker responses to trends at a lower price at home and overseas.</li>
</ul>


Ryohin Keikaku's biggest weakness is its unwieldy and expensive supply chains, with hundreds of suppliers across its three main categories of household, apparel and food.
The Muji operator just acquired a large team from one of its principle clothing supply partners, Mitsubishi, to finally streamline its supply chains and improve cost performance in clothing. 
This should have a positive impact on its cost of goods, margins and inventory levels, allowing for quicker responses to trends at a lower price at home and overseas.


Ryohin Keikaku: Finally Fixing Its Biggest Weakness?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> experienced a 45% leap in its share price since its last earnings announcement, primarily fueled by a positive OP surprise of nearly ¥3.0bn.</li>
<li>Our analysis indicates the potential for another big earnings beat in FQ4, primarily because the consensus remains conservative in its cost assumptions.</li>
<li>Additionally, we anticipate that the company will provide FY24 OP guidance in the range of ¥45-50bn. This would constitute a significant upside surprise compared to the current FY24 consensus.</li>
</ul>



Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) experienced a 45% leap in its share price since its last earnings announcement, primarily fueled by a positive OP surprise of nearly ¥3.0bn.
Our analysis indicates the potential for another big earnings beat in FQ4, primarily because the consensus remains conservative in its cost assumptions.
Additionally, we anticipate that the company will provide FY24 OP guidance in the range of ¥45-50bn. This would constitute a significant upside surprise compared to the current FY24 consensus.


Ryohin Keikaku: Big Moves Ahead with Strong FY24 Guidance

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> fired a broadside at Uniqlo last month when it confirmed not only that its new president would be a former lieutenant to Tadashi Yanai, but also that it plans to reduce prices to compete with Uniqlo in apparel and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> in home.While Muji is today a quarter of the size of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, it has big plans to become a ¥3 trillion behemoth in just 10 years with more stores in Japan than even discount apparel chain, Shimamura.Is this a real plan or just a rallying of the troops, Uniqlo-style?

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) fired a broadside at Uniqlo last month when it confirmed not only that its new president would be a former lieutenant to Tadashi Yanai, but also that it plans to reduce prices to compete with Uniqlo in apparel and Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) in home.While Muji is today a quarter of the size of Fast Retailing (9983 JP), it has big plans to become a ¥3 trillion behemoth in just 10 years with more stores in Japan than even discount apparel chain, Shimamura.Is this a real plan or just a rallying of the troops, Uniqlo-style?

Japan

RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO., LTD. is a retailer and wholesaler of Mujirushi Ryohin brand products, which were originally a generic private-brand product.  The Company's product line includes knitwear, food, and household items

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Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

Muji Growing Fast but Not to ¥3 Trillion by 2030

Ryohin Keikaku looks set for impressive growth with revised sales targets, focusing on food and expanding into overseas markets.

Michael Causton

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

Ryohin Keikaku: Finally Fixing Its Biggest Weakness?

Muji operator Ryohin Keikaku looks set to improve its supply chains and cost performance in clothing by acquiring a team from Mitsubishi, leading...

Michael Causton

Ryohin Keikaku: Big Moves Ahead with Strong FY24 Guidance

Ryohin Keikaku's stock surged 45% after an earnings surprise. Anticipating another strong quarter and potentially higher FY24 guidance.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Muji: A ¥3 Trillion Brand by 2030?

Muji has confounded critics in the last decade by finding new growth domestically despite perceived saturation. Now it wants to increase sales 6...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Muji Growing Fast but Not to ¥3 Trillion by 2030

​Ryohin Keikaku looks set for impressive growth with revised sales targets, focusing on food and expanding into overseas markets.

Michael Causton

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

Ryohin Keikaku: Finally Fixing Its Biggest Weakness?

​Muji operator Ryohin Keikaku looks set to improve its supply chains and cost performance in clothing by acquiring a team from Mitsubishi, leading...

Michael Causton

Ryohin Keikaku: Big Moves Ahead with Strong FY24 Guidance

​Ryohin Keikaku's stock surged 45% after an earnings surprise. Anticipating another strong quarter and potentially higher FY24 guidance.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Muji: A ¥3 Trillion Brand by 2030?

Muji has confounded critics in the last decade by finding new growth domestically despite perceived saturation. Now it wants to increase sales 6...

Michael Causton

Ryohin Keikaku looks set for impressive growth with revised sales targets, focusing on food and expanding into overseas markets.

Muji operator Ryohin Keikaku looks set to improve its supply chains and cost performance in clothing by acquiring a team from Mitsubishi, leading...

Ryohin Keikaku's stock surged 45% after an earnings surprise. Anticipating another strong quarter and potentially higher FY24 guidance.