Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Republic First Bancorp / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse, an ongoing lack of confidence in European banks, and First Republic Bank have resulted in extreme volatility in Short dated Interest rates, Banks, and Financials.</li><li>The sharp rise in fixed-income volatility has not happened to FX, Commodity, and Equity volatility.</li><li>We saw record one-day moves in 3-month SOFR futures, and 2-Year Treasury yields dropped the most since 2008.</li></ul>

The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse, an ongoing lack of confidence in European banks, and First Republic Bank have resulted in extreme volatility in Short dated Interest rates, Banks, and Financials.The sharp rise in fixed-income volatility has not happened to FX, Commodity, and Equity volatility.We saw record one-day moves in 3-month SOFR futures, and 2-Year Treasury yields dropped the most since 2008.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.
The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).
The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended March 17, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, rising 1.2% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 4.4%).</li><li>Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.3% of the index) drove the index performance, rising 3.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (22.8% of the index) was down 2.0% and Energy Technology was down 5.8%.</li><li>Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 23.6x versus 17.6x for the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>

WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended March 17, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, rising 1.2% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 4.4%).Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.3% of the index) drove the index performance, rising 3.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (22.8% of the index) was down 2.0% and Energy Technology was down 5.8%.Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 23.6x versus 17.6x for the S&amp;P 500.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended March 17, 2023

<ul><li>WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended March 3, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index performed in line with the broader market, rising 2.0% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.0%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 2.6%).</li><li>Energy Technology (8.5% of the index) drove the index performance, rising 4.4%, while Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.6% of the index) was up 1.2% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 3.4%.</li><li>Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.0x versus 18.3x for the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>

WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended March 3, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index performed in line with the broader market, rising 2.0% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.0%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 2.6%).Energy Technology (8.5% of the index) drove the index performance, rising 4.4%, while Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.6% of the index) was up 1.2% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 3.4%.Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.0x versus 18.3x for the S&amp;P 500.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended March 3, 2023

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes</li>
<li>There has been four failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last five trading days.</li>
<li>These remain important lines in the sand moving forward. Attractive stocks: TPX, LZB, SNBR, ETD, HOFT, FLXS, KEX, SBLK, CMRE, DAC, EGLE, GNK, ASC, GSL, DSX, SB, NM, EURN, more</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes
There has been four failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last five trading days.
These remain important lines in the sand moving forward. Attractive stocks: TPX, LZB, SNBR, ETD, HOFT, FLXS, KEX, SBLK, CMRE, DAC, EGLE, GNK, ASC, GSL, DSX, SB, NM, EURN, more


Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Credit Becoming Due

The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse, an ongoing lack of confidence in European banks...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Our 2023 $SPX outlook remains unchanged: rangebound trade between 4165-4200 and 3490, with Dec. 2022 lows (3765) also possible support. Bears in...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended March 17, 2023

Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 23.6x versus 17.6x for the S&P 500.

Water Tower Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended March 3, 2023

During the week ended March 3, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index performed in line with the broader market, rising 2.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index...

Water Tower Research

Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers

Signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes with 4 failed attempts to reclaim $190 on $IWM and $297 on $QQQ over the...

Vermilion Research