Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p>WTR-CMI last week. Last week saw the market retrench, with the S&amp;P 500 losing 1.3%, while our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks managed to modestly outperform the broader Russell 2000 index (-3.6%) by declining 3.4%.</p></li><li><p>Only one stock in our index, SXT, managed a positive gain for the week, appreciating 3%. FMC was the worst performer in our index, losing 12.3% of its value on a short seller’s report that the company felt obliged to address.</p></li><li><p>Ag-tech portfolio shuffles continue. Privately held DLF, a global seed company, completed the acquisition of CTVA’s alfalfa seed breeding program, which was announced last month.</p></li></ul></div></div></div></div>

WTR-CMI last week. Last week saw the market retrench, with the S&amp;P 500 losing 1.3%, while our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks managed to modestly outperform the broader Russell 2000 index (-3.6%) by declining 3.4%.Only one stock in our index, SXT, managed a positive gain for the week, appreciating 3%. FMC was the worst performer in our index, losing 12.3% of its value on a short seller’s report that the company felt obliged to address.Ag-tech portfolio shuffles continue. Privately held DLF, a global seed company, completed the acquisition of CTVA’s alfalfa seed breeding program, which was announced last month.

Mat-Chem Notes For the Week Ended September 8, 2023

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In a week where the USD is celebrating its longest rally streak in 9 years with 8 consecutive weeks of outperforming currency peers, it’s noteworthy how both commodities have remained resilient and energy managed to rally</li>
<li>Not only does this reinforce our US bull case, but it also lends support to my recent bearish stance on emerging markets</li>
<li>US imports being down some 5% on a YoY basis for Q2 is not exactly helping struggling players here either.</li>
</ul>


In a week where the USD is celebrating its longest rally streak in 9 years with 8 consecutive weeks of outperforming currency peers, it’s noteworthy how both commodities have remained resilient and energy managed to rally
Not only does this reinforce our US bull case, but it also lends support to my recent bearish stance on emerging markets
US imports being down some 5% on a YoY basis for Q2 is not exactly helping struggling players here either.


Positioning Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball & Oil’s Roaring Rally

<div><div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p>WTR-CMI year to date. As we enter the final month of the third quarter, our index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 and the Russell 2000 on both a YTD and Y/Y basis.</p></li><li><p>With most of the margin improvement benefit having played out over the course of 2022 and into 1Q23, stock performance of companies in our sector has been largely driven by market- and industry-specific dynamics and their effects on respective companies.</p></li><li><p>Thus, weaker pricing and customer inventory drawdowns affected the performance of FMC and AVD, which are both down more than 30% YTD. </p></li></ul></div></div></div>

WTR-CMI year to date. As we enter the final month of the third quarter, our index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 and the Russell 2000 on both a YTD and Y/Y basis.With most of the margin improvement benefit having played out over the course of 2022 and into 1Q23, stock performance of companies in our sector has been largely driven by market- and industry-specific dynamics and their effects on respective companies.Thus, weaker pricing and customer inventory drawdowns affected the performance of FMC and AVD, which are both down more than 30% YTD. 

Mat-Chem Notes - For the Week Ended September 1, 2023

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.</li>
<li>We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.</li>
</ul>


Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.
We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.


Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 4.8% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.4%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).</li><li>Energy Technology (14.7% of the index) contributed to the index’s underperformance, falling 7.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.6% of the index) was down 2.1%, ClimateTech Mining was down 7.8%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 6.8%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: LYTS, EOSE, PE, RIDE, PGTK, BWEN, ORGN, SOLO, TGEN, ADSE</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 4.8% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.4%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).Energy Technology (14.7% of the index) contributed to the index’s underperformance, falling 7.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.6% of the index) was down 2.1%, ClimateTech Mining was down 7.8%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 6.8%.Top 10 Performers: LYTS, EOSE, PE, RIDE, PGTK, BWEN, ORGN, SOLO, TGEN, ADSE

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended August 18, 2023

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Mat-Chem Notes For the Week Ended September 8, 2023

Ag-tech portfolio shuffles continue. Privately held DLF, a global seed company, completed the acquisition of CTVA’s alfalfa seed breeding program,...

Water Tower Research

Positioning Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball & Oil’s Roaring Rally

In a week where the USD is celebrating its longest rally streak in 9 years with 8 consecutive weeks of outperforming currency peers, it’s...

Steno Research

Mat-Chem Notes - For the Week Ended September 1, 2023

As we enter the final month of the third quarter, our index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks has underperformed the S&P 500 and the...

Water Tower Research

Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

Expectations over the past two weeks for an oversold bounce in $SPX have played out. 4300-4325 (1.5-year support) remains solid floor, but could...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended August 18, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 4.8% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down...

Water Tower Research