Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded contracts for HS2 in the UK • Black Friday update | Cyber Monday was the busiest day for the parcel logistics providers</li></ul>

In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded contracts for HS2 in the UK • Black Friday update | Cyber Monday was the busiest day for the parcel logistics providers

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 6 December (Shell | InPost | BAM Group | Black Friday update)

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Shell's Q2 revenue fell by 7.4% YoY and its adjusted earnings dropped by 3.1%. However, its revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations by 2.3% and 13.1%, respectively.</li>
<li>Shell’s free cash flow rose 44.4% YoY to USD 10.8 billion, while its net debt fell to its lowest since 2015, dropping by 13.1% YoY to USD 35.2 billion.</li>
<li>Shell’s LNG sales grew 6.4% YoY, while oil and gas production earnings rose 9% YoY, supported by a 3.1% production increase from new fields.</li>
</ul>


Shell's Q2 revenue fell by 7.4% YoY and its adjusted earnings dropped by 3.1%. However, its revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations by 2.3% and 13.1%, respectively.
Shell’s free cash flow rose 44.4% YoY to USD 10.8 billion, while its net debt fell to its lowest since 2015, dropping by 13.1% YoY to USD 35.2 billion.
Shell’s LNG sales grew 6.4% YoY, while oil and gas production earnings rose 9% YoY, supported by a 3.1% production increase from new fields.


[Earnings Review] Shell Exceeds Expectations as Robust LNG Sales Counter Weak Refining Margins

<ul>
<li>Shell will report Q3 earnings on 31/Oct, with analysts expecting a 10.8% YoY fall in revenue and a 2.7% drop in EPS, due to weaker crude prices and refining margins.</li>
<li>Shell's OI PCR at 0.61 signals neutral sentiment, while a 100% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI clusters around strikes 67 and 70.</li>
<li>Shell’s short interest has fallen for three consecutive biweekly periods, reaching 4.46 million shares as of 15/Oct—a 16.2% fall from 30/Sep and 35.5% since 15/Jul.</li>
</ul>


Shell will report Q3 earnings on 31/Oct, with analysts expecting a 10.8% YoY fall in revenue and a 2.7% drop in EPS, due to weaker crude prices and refining margins.
Shell's OI PCR at 0.61 signals neutral sentiment, while a 100% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI clusters around strikes 67 and 70.
Shell’s short interest has fallen for three consecutive biweekly periods, reaching 4.46 million shares as of 15/Oct—a 16.2% fall from 30/Sep and 35.5% since 15/Jul.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s IV Surges Ahead of Q3 Results; Short Interest Declines

<ul>
<li>Shell expects Q3 refining margins to drop 28.6% QoQ to USD 5.5/bbl, driven by a sharp decline in oil prices. However, improved chemical margins are anticipated to offer some relief.</li>
<li>Between 2023 and 2025, Shell plans to invest USD 10 billion to USD 15 billion in low-carbon solutions globally, with a strategic emphasis on LNG.</li>
<li>Shell projects LNG to account for 26% of energy sales by 2030, up from 22% in 2023, while oil products will decrease from 48% to 39%.</li>
</ul>


Shell expects Q3 refining margins to drop 28.6% QoQ to USD 5.5/bbl, driven by a sharp decline in oil prices. However, improved chemical margins are anticipated to offer some relief.
Between 2023 and 2025, Shell plans to invest USD 10 billion to USD 15 billion in low-carbon solutions globally, with a strategic emphasis on LNG.
Shell projects LNG to account for 26% of energy sales by 2030, up from 22% in 2023, while oil products will decrease from 48% to 39%.


[Earnings Preview] Shell’s Refining Margins to Tighten in Q3; Upstream Output Gains to Soften Blow

<ul>
<li>Shell's Q2 revenue dipped 0.2% YoY, but net profit increased by 12.2%. Both revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations by 7.4% and 5.1%, respectively.</li>
<li>Shell cut total debt by 10.5% YoY to USD 74.5 billion, with net debt down 5% YoY to USD 38.3 billion.</li>
<li>Shell recorded a USD 708 million impairment from selling its Singapore refinery and another USD 783 million from pausing construction on a European biofuel plant.</li>
</ul>


Shell's Q2 revenue dipped 0.2% YoY, but net profit increased by 12.2%. Both revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations by 7.4% and 5.1%, respectively.
Shell cut total debt by 10.5% YoY to USD 74.5 billion, with net debt down 5% YoY to USD 38.3 billion.
Shell recorded a USD 708 million impairment from selling its Singapore refinery and another USD 783 million from pausing construction on a European biofuel plant.


[Earnings Review] Shell Surpasses Earnings Forecasts with Strong Upstream and Retail Gains

United Kingdom

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 6 December (Shell | InPost | BAM Group | Black Friday update)

In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded...

The IDEA!

[Earnings Review] Shell Exceeds Expectations as Robust LNG Sales Counter Weak Refining Margins

Shell exceeded expectations, driven by robust LNG sales that offset weak commodity prices. Total hydrocarbon production increased 3.1% YoY....

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s IV Surges Ahead of Q3 Results; Short Interest Declines

Shell’s revenue and EPS are expected to decline in Q3 due to lower oil prices. Options data indicates high IV and OI PCR are still neutral. Short...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Shell’s Refining Margins to Tighten in Q3; Upstream Output Gains to Soften Blow

Shell expects lower oil prices to eat into refining margins in Q3 but anticipates higher upstream production. Analysts predict a YoY and QoQ...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Shell Surpasses Earnings Forecasts with Strong Upstream and Retail Gains

Shell's Q2 revenue slightly decreased, but net profit rose significantly. Revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations. Net debt was reduced and...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 6 December (Shell | InPost | BAM Group | Black Friday update)

In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded...

The IDEA!

[Earnings Review] Shell Exceeds Expectations as Robust LNG Sales Counter Weak Refining Margins

Shell exceeded expectations, driven by robust LNG sales that offset weak commodity prices. Total hydrocarbon production increased 3.1% YoY....

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Shell’s IV Surges Ahead of Q3 Results; Short Interest Declines

Shell’s revenue and EPS are expected to decline in Q3 due to lower oil prices. Options data indicates high IV and OI PCR are still neutral. Short...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Shell’s Refining Margins to Tighten in Q3; Upstream Output Gains to Soften Blow

Shell expects lower oil prices to eat into refining margins in Q3 but anticipates higher upstream production. Analysts predict a YoY and QoQ...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Shell Surpasses Earnings Forecasts with Strong Upstream and Retail Gains

​Shell's Q2 revenue slightly decreased, but net profit rose significantly. Revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations. Net debt was reduced and...

Mint Finance

Shell's Q2 revenue slightly decreased, but net profit rose significantly. Revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations. Net debt was reduced and...