Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.</li>
<li>We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).</li>
<li>With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target</li>
</ul>


We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target


Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Gold and precious metals held their ground through December despite continued quantitative tightening headwinds</li><li>We anticipate 2023 to be a standout year for both precious metals and base metals and encourage investors to position themselves accordingly</li><li>Investors should tread carefully when buying small-cap stocks as the limited access to capital in 2022 may result in bankruptcies in 2023</li></ul>

Gold and precious metals held their ground through December despite continued quantitative tightening headwindsWe anticipate 2023 to be a standout year for both precious metals and base metals and encourage investors to position themselves accordinglyInvestors should tread carefully when buying small-cap stocks as the limited access to capital in 2022 may result in bankruptcies in 2023

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads widening and tightening.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 49.5%; GBL, 35.7%; Heineken Holding, 18%; Industrivärden C, 13.5%; Investor B, 15.5%; Porsche Automobile Holding 40.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to %.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads widening and tightening.
Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 49.5%; GBL, 35.7%; Heineken Holding, 18%; Industrivärden C, 13.5%; Investor B, 15.5%; Porsche Automobile Holding 40.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to %.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: November/Mid-December‘22 Report

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 25th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Mineral Resource, QBE Insurance, Rio Tinto, South32, Westpac, ANZ, Woodside.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 25th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Mineral Resource, QBE Insurance, Rio Tinto, South32, Westpac, ANZ, Woodside.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 25th): Mineral Resource, QBE Insurance, Rio Tinto, South32

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star, ANZ, Aristocrat Leisure, New Hope, Rio Tinto.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 11th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star, ANZ, Aristocrat Leisure, New Hope, Rio Tinto.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 11th): Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

With yesterday's break above 3910 in $SPX we see a tradable rally, but 4100-4165 is likely to cap upside; reduce risk into that area. Buy ideas...

Vermilion Research

Mining Monthly: December Edition

Gold and precious metals held their ground through December despite continued quantitative tightening headwinds. We anticipate 2023 to be a...

Atrium Research

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: November/Mid-December‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 25th): Mineral Resource, QBE Insurance, Rio Tinto, South32

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Mineral Resource, QBE Insurance, Rio Tinto,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 11th): Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Woodside, Norther Star, ANZ, Aristocrat...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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