HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>One “unique” feature of China's CXOs is that they like investment more than drug R&amp;D business, but the investment-driven model will result in "interest-to-conflict", which actually “crosses the line”.</li>
<li>RemeGen's shares plummet last week. In current situation of investors' lack of confidence/trust in RemeGen, stock price may not have hit bottom yet, so no need to rush to bottom-fish.</li>
<li>For Kelun Bio, if SKB264 fails to deliver good data, valuation would face the risk of pullback. After the lock-up expiry, there could be opportunity to buy at lower price.</li>
</ul>


One “unique” feature of China's CXOs is that they like investment more than drug R&amp;D business, but the investment-driven model will result in "interest-to-conflict", which actually “crosses the line”.
RemeGen's shares plummet last week. In current situation of investors' lack of confidence/trust in RemeGen, stock price may not have hit bottom yet, so no need to rush to bottom-fish.
For Kelun Bio, if SKB264 fails to deliver good data, valuation would face the risk of pullback. After the lock-up expiry, there could be opportunity to buy at lower price.


China Healthcare Weekly (July.14) - CXO's Disputed Business Model, Remegen Shares Plunged, Kelun Bio

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 145 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.3% as of Aug 23rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Huaneng Power, Goldwind, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO, Hua Hong Semi, Ganfeng Lithium.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 145 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.3% as of Aug 23rd.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Huaneng Power, Goldwind, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO, Hua Hong Semi, Ganfeng Lithium.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 23rd):Huaneng Power, Goldwind, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO, Hua Hong Semi

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We believe RemeGen has bottom fishing value because its Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) drug Telitacicept (RC18) has already been approved for sale in China.</li>
<li>Earliest data read in US clinical trial for IgA Nephropathy is already available, with SLE data read available in C3Q24 and MS in C4Q24;</li>
<li>We don’t think a leading biotech from the wealthy city of Yantai will run out of cash. We assume RemeGen will be able to mitigate its liquidity problem.</li>
</ul>


We believe RemeGen has bottom fishing value because its Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) drug Telitacicept (RC18) has already been approved for sale in China.
Earliest data read in US clinical trial for IgA Nephropathy is already available, with SLE data read available in C3Q24 and MS in C4Q24;
We don’t think a leading biotech from the wealthy city of Yantai will run out of cash. We assume RemeGen will be able to mitigate its liquidity problem.


[RemeGen (9995 HK, BUY, TP HK$34) Rating Change]: Time to Do Some Bottom Fishing…UG to BUY

<ul>
<li>One direct reason for the sharp drop in stock prices is that RemeGen's performance in 23Q4 would miss expectation, thus leading to disappointing performance for the entire year of 2023.</li>
<li>Due to low competitiveness of pipelines, product sales are hard to bring sufficient cashflow.Prospects for future license-out deals are still uncertain. RemeGen may find it difficult to turn the tide.</li>
<li>Reasonable market value of Remegen should be above RMB12 billion. Investors can participate in the rebounds after stock price plunge, but we do not recommend holding for the long term.</li>
</ul>


One direct reason for the sharp drop in stock prices is that RemeGen's performance in 23Q4 would miss expectation, thus leading to disappointing performance for the entire year of 2023.
Due to low competitiveness of pipelines, product sales are hard to bring sufficient cashflow.Prospects for future license-out deals are still uncertain. RemeGen may find it difficult to turn the tide.
Reasonable market value of Remegen should be above RMB12 billion. Investors can participate in the rebounds after stock price plunge, but we do not recommend holding for the long term.


Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Real Reasons for the Stock Price Collapse and the Future Prospects

<ul>
<li>Although RemeGen’s 23Q1-Q3 sales was better-than-expected, the Company is difficult to achieve management's performance guidance for 2023. Since RemeGen’s commercialization logic has “undeniable flaws”, net loss would be further widened.</li>
<li>Cash balance of RemeGen was just RMB600 million by 23Q3, which is not enough to cover its high R&amp;D/SG&amp;A expenses. If RemeGen cannot secure sufficient financing timely, risks are significant.</li>
<li>The current valuation and investors’ expectations for RemeGen largely rely on the potential license-out deal of RC18. However, we remain caution until RC18 has sufficient evidence to win head-to-head trial.</li>
</ul>


Although RemeGen’s 23Q1-Q3 sales was better-than-expected, the Company is difficult to achieve management's performance guidance for 2023. Since RemeGen’s commercialization logic has “undeniable flaws”, net loss would be further widened.
Cash balance of RemeGen was just RMB600 million by 23Q3, which is not enough to cover its high R&amp;D/SG&amp;A expenses. If RemeGen cannot secure sufficient financing timely, risks are significant.
The current valuation and investors’ expectations for RemeGen largely rely on the potential license-out deal of RC18. However, we remain caution until RC18 has sufficient evidence to win head-to-head trial.


Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Survival Problem Is Becoming Imminent

China

RemeGen Co., Ltd. operates biotechnology businesses. The Company develops therapeutic antibody drugs such as antibody drug conjugates (ADC), antibody fusion proteins, monoclonal antibodies and double antibodies. RemeGen provides solutions autoimmune diseases, tumor diseases, and ophthalmic diseases.

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Remegen (9995 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (July.14) - CXO's Disputed Business Model, Remegen Shares Plunged, Kelun Bio

China CXOs prioritize investment over R&D, leading to potential conflicts of interest. Investors challenged RemeGen due to poor outlook. After...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 23rd):Huaneng Power, Goldwind, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO, Hua Hong Semi

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Huaneng Power, Goldwind, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO, Hua Hong Semi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[RemeGen (9995 HK, BUY, TP HK$34) Rating Change]: Time to Do Some Bottom Fishing…UG to BUY

RemeGen's approved SLE drug in China and available data from clinical trials suggest potential value, despite liquidity concerns.We thus upgrade...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Real Reasons for the Stock Price Collapse and the Future Prospects

RemeGen's 23Q4 results will miss expectation, leading to poor performance for 2023.The pain point isn't cashflow shortage but weak...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Survival Problem Is Becoming Imminent

Due to “undeniable flaw” in commercialization logic, RemeGen has to face high cost/low efficiency, leading to increasing net loss.RemeGen is short...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (July.14) - CXO's Disputed Business Model, Remegen Shares Plunged, Kelun Bio

​China CXOs prioritize investment over R&D, leading to potential conflicts of interest. Investors challenged RemeGen due to poor outlook. After...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 23rd):Huaneng Power, Goldwind, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO, Hua Hong Semi

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Huaneng Power, Goldwind, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO, Hua Hong Semi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[RemeGen (9995 HK, BUY, TP HK$34) Rating Change]: Time to Do Some Bottom Fishing…UG to BUY

​RemeGen's approved SLE drug in China and available data from clinical trials suggest potential value, despite liquidity concerns.We thus upgrade...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Real Reasons for the Stock Price Collapse and the Future Prospects

RemeGen's 23Q4 results will miss expectation, leading to poor performance for 2023.The pain point isn't cashflow shortage but weak...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Survival Problem Is Becoming Imminent

Due to “undeniable flaw” in commercialization logic, RemeGen has to face high cost/low efficiency, leading to increasing net loss.RemeGen is short...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China CXOs prioritize investment over R&D, leading to potential conflicts of interest. Investors challenged RemeGen due to poor outlook. After...

RemeGen's approved SLE drug in China and available data from clinical trials suggest potential value, despite liquidity concerns.We thus upgrade...