HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>One “unique” feature of China's CXOs is that they like investment more than drug R&amp;D business, but the investment-driven model will result in "interest-to-conflict", which actually “crosses the line”.</li>
<li>RemeGen's shares plummet last week. In current situation of investors' lack of confidence/trust in RemeGen, stock price may not have hit bottom yet, so no need to rush to bottom-fish.</li>
<li>For Kelun Bio, if SKB264 fails to deliver good data, valuation would face the risk of pullback. After the lock-up expiry, there could be opportunity to buy at lower price.</li>
</ul>


One “unique” feature of China's CXOs is that they like investment more than drug R&amp;D business, but the investment-driven model will result in "interest-to-conflict", which actually “crosses the line”.
RemeGen's shares plummet last week. In current situation of investors' lack of confidence/trust in RemeGen, stock price may not have hit bottom yet, so no need to rush to bottom-fish.
For Kelun Bio, if SKB264 fails to deliver good data, valuation would face the risk of pullback. After the lock-up expiry, there could be opportunity to buy at lower price.


China Healthcare Weekly (July.14) - CXO's Disputed Business Model, Remegen Shares Plunged, Kelun Bio

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We believe RemeGen has bottom fishing value because its Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) drug Telitacicept (RC18) has already been approved for sale in China.</li>
<li>Earliest data read in US clinical trial for IgA Nephropathy is already available, with SLE data read available in C3Q24 and MS in C4Q24;</li>
<li>We don’t think a leading biotech from the wealthy city of Yantai will run out of cash. We assume RemeGen will be able to mitigate its liquidity problem.</li>
</ul>


We believe RemeGen has bottom fishing value because its Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) drug Telitacicept (RC18) has already been approved for sale in China.
Earliest data read in US clinical trial for IgA Nephropathy is already available, with SLE data read available in C3Q24 and MS in C4Q24;
We don’t think a leading biotech from the wealthy city of Yantai will run out of cash. We assume RemeGen will be able to mitigate its liquidity problem.


[RemeGen (9995 HK, BUY, TP HK$34) Rating Change]: Time to Do Some Bottom Fishing…UG to BUY

<ul>
<li>One direct reason for the sharp drop in stock prices is that RemeGen's performance in 23Q4 would miss expectation, thus leading to disappointing performance for the entire year of 2023.</li>
<li>Due to low competitiveness of pipelines, product sales are hard to bring sufficient cashflow.Prospects for future license-out deals are still uncertain. RemeGen may find it difficult to turn the tide.</li>
<li>Reasonable market value of Remegen should be above RMB12 billion. Investors can participate in the rebounds after stock price plunge, but we do not recommend holding for the long term.</li>
</ul>


One direct reason for the sharp drop in stock prices is that RemeGen's performance in 23Q4 would miss expectation, thus leading to disappointing performance for the entire year of 2023.
Due to low competitiveness of pipelines, product sales are hard to bring sufficient cashflow.Prospects for future license-out deals are still uncertain. RemeGen may find it difficult to turn the tide.
Reasonable market value of Remegen should be above RMB12 billion. Investors can participate in the rebounds after stock price plunge, but we do not recommend holding for the long term.


Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Real Reasons for the Stock Price Collapse and the Future Prospects

<ul>
<li>Although RemeGen’s 23Q1-Q3 sales was better-than-expected, the Company is difficult to achieve management's performance guidance for 2023. Since RemeGen’s commercialization logic has “undeniable flaws”, net loss would be further widened.</li>
<li>Cash balance of RemeGen was just RMB600 million by 23Q3, which is not enough to cover its high R&amp;D/SG&amp;A expenses. If RemeGen cannot secure sufficient financing timely, risks are significant.</li>
<li>The current valuation and investors’ expectations for RemeGen largely rely on the potential license-out deal of RC18. However, we remain caution until RC18 has sufficient evidence to win head-to-head trial.</li>
</ul>


Although RemeGen’s 23Q1-Q3 sales was better-than-expected, the Company is difficult to achieve management's performance guidance for 2023. Since RemeGen’s commercialization logic has “undeniable flaws”, net loss would be further widened.
Cash balance of RemeGen was just RMB600 million by 23Q3, which is not enough to cover its high R&amp;D/SG&amp;A expenses. If RemeGen cannot secure sufficient financing timely, risks are significant.
The current valuation and investors’ expectations for RemeGen largely rely on the potential license-out deal of RC18. However, we remain caution until RC18 has sufficient evidence to win head-to-head trial.


Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Survival Problem Is Becoming Imminent

<ul>
<li>RemeGen’s 23H1 results were unsatisfactory. We also have concerns about its future sales performance. The core reason behind is the disorganized pipeline layout, leading to inefficient sales system/high cost.</li>
<li>RemeGen's core technologies are mostly in-licensed from third parties. At first, RemeGen just hoped to develop drugs/build pipeline through these technologies, without considering the potential challenges of commercialization ahead.</li>
<li>The anti-corruption campaign could negatively affected RemeGen's 23H2 performance. The Company could fail to meet management's guidance for 2023. We lowered our valuation of RemeGen to RMB12 billion-18 billion.</li>
</ul>


RemeGen’s 23H1 results were unsatisfactory. We also have concerns about its future sales performance. The core reason behind is the disorganized pipeline layout, leading to inefficient sales system/high cost.
RemeGen's core technologies are mostly in-licensed from third parties. At first, RemeGen just hoped to develop drugs/build pipeline through these technologies, without considering the potential challenges of commercialization ahead.
The anti-corruption campaign could negatively affected RemeGen's 23H2 performance. The Company could fail to meet management's guidance for 2023. We lowered our valuation of RemeGen to RMB12 billion-18 billion.


Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) 23H1 - This Is Why RemeGen’s Commercialization Performance Is so Weak

China

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Zhongyuan Union Cell & Gene Engineering Corp Ltd, mainly operates in the stem cell inspection and storage business and other stem cell related business.

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Beijing SL Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and markets genetic engineering drugs, biological drugs, chemical drugs and medicine preparations.

Da An Gene Company Limited of Sun Yat-Sen University researches, develops, manufactures, and sells fluorescence Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) diagnostic kits and related medical equipment.  The Company's products are used in diagnosing Hepatitis B virus, Hepatitis C virus, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, chlamydia trachomatis, and SARS coronavirus.

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Chengzhi Company Limited manufactures and sells household chemical products, biotechnology products, pharmaceuticals, and information technology products. The Company's products include detergents, toothpastes, D-ribose, L-glutamine, Chinese traditional medicines, computer memory devices, and other related products.

Beijing Strong Biotechnologies, Inc. operates in the IVD industry, where they specialize in the manufacturing of clinical chemistry liquid reagents.

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Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) (600556 CH)

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Yantai Dongcheng Pharmaceuticl Gp (002675 CH)

Ningbo Medical System Biotechnology Co., Ltd. manufactures biochemistry reagent and analyzers. The Company specializes in clinical laboratory service, scientific research, development and other related services.

Green Cross Corporation manufactures household medical drugs. The Company's product includes medicines for cold and fever, nutrition, antiseptic drug, and a lip balm.

OPKO Health, Inc. is involved in the discovery, development, and commercialization of pharmaceutical products, vaccines, and diagnostic products.

Xencor, Inc. develops antibody and protein therapeutics to treat cancer and autoimmune inflammation. The Company markets its products to healthcare providers and facilities throughout the United States and internationally.

PolyNovo Limited is a biotechnology company. The Company has a portfolio of biodegradeable polymers that have potential for application across numerous medical fields.

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a pharmaceutical company. The Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and commercializes marketed drugs.   Ironwood products used in treatments of cholesterol, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular diseases, pain, inflammation, and others.

MiMedx Group Inc. operates as a medical device company. The Company focuses on biomaterials for soft tissue repair, such as tendons, ligaments, and cartilage, as well as other biomaterial based products for other medical applications. MiMedx Group serves the medical industry worldwide.

BioGaia AB develops and markets health care products.  The Company sells foods with healthy additives that help increase resistance against illnesses, and nutritional products with therapeutic effects for adults and children.  BioGaia also sells animal feeds and performs pharmaceutical research in the United States and Sweden.  Many products are sold worldwide by license.

Formycon AG is a biopharmaceutical company with more than twelve years experience in product development. The company's activities focus on developing and marketing "biosimilars" - biopharmaceuticals which are similar to existing drugs for which patent protection is expiring - as well as the provision of contract services  to other biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies.

Kolon TissueGene, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops novel advanced orthopedic disorders cell therapies, novel cell and gene therapies drugs, and other related products. Kolon TissueGene offers services worldwide.

AnaptysBio, Inc. operates as a clinical stage biotechnology company. The Company manufactures and markets antibodies for cancer immunotherapy and inflammation. AnaptysBio has primary operations in the United States.

RemeGen Co., Ltd. operates biotechnology businesses. The Company develops therapeutic antibody drugs such as antibody drug conjugates (ADC), antibody fusion proteins, monoclonal antibodies and double antibodies. RemeGen provides solutions autoimmune diseases, tumor diseases, and ophthalmic diseases.

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Remegen (9995 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (July.14) - CXO's Disputed Business Model, Remegen Shares Plunged, Kelun Bio

China CXOs prioritize investment over R&D, leading to potential conflicts of interest. Investors challenged RemeGen due to poor outlook. After...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[RemeGen (9995 HK, BUY, TP HK$34) Rating Change]: Time to Do Some Bottom Fishing…UG to BUY

RemeGen's approved SLE drug in China and available data from clinical trials suggest potential value, despite liquidity concerns.We thus upgrade...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Real Reasons for the Stock Price Collapse and the Future Prospects

RemeGen's 23Q4 results will miss expectation, leading to poor performance for 2023.The pain point isn't cashflow shortage but weak...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Survival Problem Is Becoming Imminent

Due to “undeniable flaw” in commercialization logic, RemeGen has to face high cost/low efficiency, leading to increasing net loss.RemeGen is short...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) 23H1 - This Is Why RemeGen’s Commercialization Performance Is so Weak

RemeGen's share price performed well recently. But we think it could be a good time for investors to consider offload - The Company is actually...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (July.14) - CXO's Disputed Business Model, Remegen Shares Plunged, Kelun Bio

​China CXOs prioritize investment over R&D, leading to potential conflicts of interest. Investors challenged RemeGen due to poor outlook. After...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[RemeGen (9995 HK, BUY, TP HK$34) Rating Change]: Time to Do Some Bottom Fishing…UG to BUY

​RemeGen's approved SLE drug in China and available data from clinical trials suggest potential value, despite liquidity concerns.We thus upgrade...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Real Reasons for the Stock Price Collapse and the Future Prospects

RemeGen's 23Q4 results will miss expectation, leading to poor performance for 2023.The pain point isn't cashflow shortage but weak...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) - The Survival Problem Is Becoming Imminent

Due to “undeniable flaw” in commercialization logic, RemeGen has to face high cost/low efficiency, leading to increasing net loss.RemeGen is short...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Remegen (9995.HK/688331.CH) 23H1 - This Is Why RemeGen’s Commercialization Performance Is so Weak

RemeGen's share price performed well recently. But we think it could be a good time for investors to consider offload - The Company is actually...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China CXOs prioritize investment over R&D, leading to potential conflicts of interest. Investors challenged RemeGen due to poor outlook. After...

RemeGen's approved SLE drug in China and available data from clinical trials suggest potential value, despite liquidity concerns.We thus upgrade...