Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In the US, initial jobless claims increased to a two-month-high of 242 k (220 k e / 225 k p), likely due to the Thanksgiving holiday.</li>
<li>The PPI (final demand) came in at 3.0% y-o-y in November (2.6% e / 2.6% p), while core PPI (final demand) stood at 3.4% (3.2% e / 3.4% p).</li>
<li>US Treasuries were sold off for the second consecutive day, with the yields gaining 4-6 bps across the curve.</li>
</ul>


In the US, initial jobless claims increased to a two-month-high of 242 k (220 k e / 225 k p), likely due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
The PPI (final demand) came in at 3.0% y-o-y in November (2.6% e / 2.6% p), while core PPI (final demand) stood at 3.4% (3.2% e / 3.4% p).
US Treasuries were sold off for the second consecutive day, with the yields gaining 4-6 bps across the curve.


Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 3,350/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C business, (2) EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams, and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses</li><li>RIL’s consolidated Q1FY25 EBITDA stood at INR 388bn (+2% YoY, -9% QoQ), coming in below our estimate, largely impacted by weakness in its O2C segment</li><li>Consumer business segments remained resilient and supported earnings.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 3,350/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C business, (2) EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams, and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businessesRIL’s consolidated Q1FY25 EBITDA stood at INR 388bn (+2% YoY, -9% QoQ), coming in below our estimate, largely impacted by weakness in its O2C segmentConsumer business segments remained resilient and supported earnings.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Reliance Industries: Earnings Decline on Weak O2C Segment. Maintain ADD

Reliance Industries - Earnings Decline on Weak O2C Segment. Maintain ADD

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.</li>
<li>The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.</li>
<li>Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.</li>
</ul>


This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.
The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.
Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.


EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

India

Reliance Industries Ltd. manufactures petrochemicals, synthetic fibers, fiber intermediates, textiles, blended yarn and polyester staple fiber. The Company also owns a petroleum refinery cum petrochemicals complex in Jamnagar, India that produces a wide range of products such as gasoline, superior kerosene oil and liquefied petroleum gas.

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Reliance Industries (RIL IN)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, initial jobless claims increased to a two-month-high of 242 k (220 k e / 225 k p), likely due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Lucror Analytics

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Reliance Industries: Earnings Decline on Weak O2C Segment. Maintain ADD

RIL’s consolidated Q1FY25 EBITDA stood at INR 388bn (+2% YoY, -9% QoQ), coming in below our estimate, largely impacted by weakness in its O2C segment

HDFC Securities

Reliance Industries - Earnings Decline on Weak O2C Segment. Maintain ADD

RIL’s consolidated Q1FY25 EBITDA stood at INR 388bn (+2% YoY, -9% QoQ), coming in below our estimate, largely impacted by weakness in its O2C segment

HDFC Securities

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, initial jobless claims increased to a two-month-high of 242 k (220 k e / 225 k p), likely due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Lucror Analytics

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Reliance Industries: Earnings Decline on Weak O2C Segment. Maintain ADD

RIL’s consolidated Q1FY25 EBITDA stood at INR 388bn (+2% YoY, -9% QoQ), coming in below our estimate, largely impacted by weakness in its O2C segment

HDFC Securities

Reliance Industries - Earnings Decline on Weak O2C Segment. Maintain ADD

RIL’s consolidated Q1FY25 EBITDA stood at INR 388bn (+2% YoY, -9% QoQ), coming in below our estimate, largely impacted by weakness in its O2C segment

HDFC Securities

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...