Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kenvue-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36755:1" rel="noopener">Kenvue (KVUE US)</a>, a wholly owned subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johnson-johnson" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1132:1" rel="noopener">Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ US)</a>, is preparing for an IPO of 151M shares. The IPO price is expected to be $20–23/share.  </li>
<li>Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and BofA Securities are acting as joint lead bookrunning managers for the IPO. J&amp;J will still own more than 90% of Kenvue’s shares after the IPO.</li>
<li>In 1Q23, Kenvue’s revenue increased 7% YoY to $3.9B, driven by a 12% YoY revenue growth in self-care OTC products. Adjusted net income increased 3% YoY to $630M.</li>
</ul>



Kenvue (KVUE US), a wholly owned subsidiary of Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ US), is preparing for an IPO of 151M shares. The IPO price is expected to be $20–23/share.  
Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and BofA Securities are acting as joint lead bookrunning managers for the IPO. J&amp;J will still own more than 90% of Kenvue’s shares after the IPO.
In 1Q23, Kenvue’s revenue increased 7% YoY to $3.9B, driven by a 12% YoY revenue growth in self-care OTC products. Adjusted net income increased 3% YoY to $630M.


Kenvue (KVUE US) Pre-IPO: Marquee Brands to Drive Profitable Growth

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>What is the common theme for beggar thy neighbor policies and higher inflation rates as evidenced by surging wheat prices, higher diesel prices, and infant formula shortages?</li>
<li>These factors are likely to continue to favor value stocks which have outperformed the growth stocks in the past six month globally, including in South Korea.</li>
<li>Value-Oriented sectors including financials, telecom, F&amp;B, and oil refineries have been outperforming the growth sectors in Korea in the past six months and we believe this trend could continue. </li>
</ul>


What is the common theme for beggar thy neighbor policies and higher inflation rates as evidenced by surging wheat prices, higher diesel prices, and infant formula shortages?
These factors are likely to continue to favor value stocks which have outperformed the growth stocks in the past six month globally, including in South Korea.
Value-Oriented sectors including financials, telecom, F&amp;B, and oil refineries have been outperforming the growth sectors in Korea in the past six months and we believe this trend could continue. 


India Bans Wheat Exports; Baby Formula & Diesel Shortage in US: Repeat of Beggar Thy Neighbor Policy

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Reckitt Benckiser Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Reckitt Benckiser has been one of the worst performers in the large cap household &amp; personal products space.</li>
<li>Past mistakes in strategic capital allocation are still lingering over the business, while debt levels will likely require more divestments.</li>
<li>The business, however, is in a good position to regain shareholders' trust and its leading position in the industry.</li>
</ul>


Reckitt Benckiser has been one of the worst performers in the large cap household &amp; personal products space.
Past mistakes in strategic capital allocation are still lingering over the business, while debt levels will likely require more divestments.
The business, however, is in a good position to regain shareholders' trust and its leading position in the industry.


Reckitt Benckiser - Still Paying For Past Mistakes

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)</a> is an international high-end dairy and nutrition products company with an entire business chain of raw milk collection, R&amp;D, production, and end-market sales. Ausnutria is the fifth largest infant formula player in China with a 6.3% market share in 2020.   Ausnutria entered a trading halt today pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. On 1 October, Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)</a> is exploring a potential takeover of Ausnutria. Yili was said to be in talks with banks to finance a potential deal. The article also speculated that Ausnutria could attract takeover interest from other industry players. There was no takeover price or valuation mentioned in the article.  We think that Yili is the likely suitor as there is a strong strategic rationale in acquiring Ausnutria. Yili has a strategy to increase its scale in the milk powder business through mergers and acquisitions. Yili was recently unsuccessful in its bid to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reckitt-benckiser-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22105:1" rel="noopener">Reckitt Benckiser (RB/ LN)</a>’s infant-formula and child nutrition business in China. <div class="content-highlight">In this note, we look at the strategic rationale for Yili’s potential bid and take a stab at estimating the potential offer price.  </div>

Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK) is an international high-end dairy and nutrition products company with an entire business chain of raw milk collection, R&amp;D, production, and end-market sales. Ausnutria is the fifth largest infant formula player in China with a 6.3% market share in 2020.   Ausnutria entered a trading halt today pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. On 1 October, Bloomberg reported that Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH) is exploring a potential takeover of Ausnutria. Yili was said to be in talks with banks to finance a potential deal. The article also speculated that Ausnutria could attract takeover interest from other industry players. There was no takeover price or valuation mentioned in the article.  We think that Yili is the likely suitor as there is a strong strategic rationale in acquiring Ausnutria. Yili has a strategy to increase its scale in the milk powder business through mergers and acquisitions. Yili was recently unsuccessful in its bid to acquire Reckitt Benckiser (RB/ LN)’s infant-formula and child nutrition business in China. In this note, we look at the strategic rationale for Yili’s potential bid and take a stab at estimating the potential offer price.  

Ausnutria in Trading Halt - Will Yili Lob an Offer?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Allocations in Consumer Staples stocks are at decade-long lows.  Average fund weights among active Global managers stand at 7.65% following an aggressive slump after the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020.The spread between Consumer Discretionary weights and Consumer Staples weights in active Global portfolios is close to it's all-time wides, but is turning lower after peaking in April this this year.What stands out in our data is the cutting back of Consumer Staples allocations by Growth investors, with a number of high profile stocks cut from Aggressive Growth portfolios since last 2019 (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reckitt-benckiser-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22105:1" rel="noopener">Reckitt Benckiser (RB/ LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/colgate-palmolive-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15093:1" rel="noopener">Colgate Palmolive Co (CL US),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anheuser-busch-inbev-sa-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:865:1" rel="noopener">Anheuser Busch Inbev Sa/Nv (ABI BB)</a> )For the Consumer Staples sector to see a turnaround, perhaps growth, or at least the perception of growth needs to return for these investors.

Allocations in Consumer Staples stocks are at decade-long lows.  Average fund weights among active Global managers stand at 7.65% following an aggressive slump after the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020.The spread between Consumer Discretionary weights and Consumer Staples weights in active Global portfolios is close to it's all-time wides, but is turning lower after peaking in April this this year.What stands out in our data is the cutting back of Consumer Staples allocations by Growth investors, with a number of high profile stocks cut from Aggressive Growth portfolios since last 2019 (Reckitt Benckiser (RB/ LN), Colgate Palmolive Co (CL US),Anheuser Busch Inbev Sa/Nv (ABI BB) )For the Consumer Staples sector to see a turnaround, perhaps growth, or at least the perception of growth needs to return for these investors.

Global Consumer Staples: Allocations at Rock Bottom as Growth Investors Flee

United Kingdom

Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC manufactures and distributes a wide range of household, toiletry, health, and food products on a global basis. The Company's products include fabric treatments, disinfectant spray and cleaners, dishwashing detergent, personal care, food, and over the counter drugs.

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Reckitt Benckiser Group (RKT LN)

Kenvue (KVUE US) Pre-IPO: Marquee Brands to Drive Profitable Growth

J&J’s consumer health spin-off entity Kenvue is preparing for NYSE IPO. The IPO has been priced at $20–23 per share to raise ~$3.2B. Goldman Sachs,...

Tina Banerjee

India Bans Wheat Exports; Baby Formula & Diesel Shortage in US: Repeat of Beggar Thy Neighbor Policy

What is the common theme for beggar thy neighbor policies and higher inflation rates as evidenced by surging wheat prices, higher diesel prices,...

Douglas Kim

Reckitt Benckiser - Still Paying For Past Mistakes

Reckitt Benckiser has been one of the worst performers in the large cap household & personal products space. Past mistakes in strategic...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Ausnutria in Trading Halt - Will Yili Lob an Offer?

Bloomberg reported on 1 Oct that Yili is weighing a bid for Ausnutria. We look at the strategic rationale for Yili/Ausnutria combination and take a...

Arun George

Global Consumer Staples: Allocations at Rock Bottom as Growth Investors Flee

Allocations in Consumer Staples stocks are at decade-long lows. Average fund weights among active Global managers stand at 7.65% following an...

Steven Holden

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