IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silvercorp-metals-inc-139c2b2c-b1be-4cd9-92d7-257aca9924c9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38823:1" rel="noopener">Silvercorp Metals (SVM US)</a> has switched to an off-market takeover offer. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a> consideration remains unchanged at A$0.19 cash and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share.</li>
<li>The takeover offer is conditional on a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition, achievable in the absence of a superior proposal. </li>
<li>The crucial question is whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a> is comfortable with SVM effectively controlling ORR. We think that there is a low probability of Perseus launching a competing proposal. </li>
</ul>



Silvercorp Metals (SVM US) has switched to an off-market takeover offer. The Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU) consideration remains unchanged at A$0.19 cash and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share.
The takeover offer is conditional on a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition, achievable in the absence of a superior proposal. 
The crucial question is whether Perseus Mining (PRU AU) is comfortable with SVM effectively controlling ORR. We think that there is a low probability of Perseus launching a competing proposal. 


OreCorp (ORR AU): Silvercorp Switches to a Takeover Offer to Counter Perseus

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a> has disclosed a revised offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silvercorp-metals-inc-139c2b2c-b1be-4cd9-92d7-257aca9924c9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38823:1" rel="noopener">Silvercorp Metals (SVM US)</a> at A$0.19 cash per share and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share.</li>
<li>The revised offer was necessitated due to the decline in SVM shares. Since 7 August, the revised offer is, on average, 7.8% higher than the previous offer.</li>
<li>Directors and irrevocables represent around 20% of voting rights. The revised offer should help the scheme get up. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.6%.</li>
</ul>



Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU) has disclosed a revised offer from Silvercorp Metals (SVM US) at A$0.19 cash per share and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share.
The revised offer was necessitated due to the decline in SVM shares. Since 7 August, the revised offer is, on average, 7.8% higher than the previous offer.
Directors and irrevocables represent around 20% of voting rights. The revised offer should help the scheme get up. At the last close, the gross spread was 8.6%.


OreCorp (ORR AU): Silvercorp Returns with a Higher Offer

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silvercorp-metals-inc-139c2b2c-b1be-4cd9-92d7-257aca9924c9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38823:1" rel="noopener">Silvercorp Metals (SVM US)</a>’s A$0.15 cash per share and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share offer fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The offer is subject to the Tanzanian Fair Competition Commission and shareholder approval. The offer is attractive compared to the adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices.</li>
<li>While the offer has suffered from the steep SVM share price decline, there has been no visible dissent from major shareholders. At the last close, the gross spread was 12.1%. </li>
</ul>


The Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU) IE considers Silvercorp Metals (SVM US)’s A$0.15 cash per share and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share offer fair and reasonable. 
The offer is subject to the Tanzanian Fair Competition Commission and shareholder approval. The offer is attractive compared to the adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices.
While the offer has suffered from the steep SVM share price decline, there has been no visible dissent from major shareholders. At the last close, the gross spread was 12.1%. 


OreCorp (ORR AU): A Wide Spread Heading into the 8 December Vote

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Shareholders have approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>'s acquisition by TPG and IVC is expected to stop trading after the close on 3 November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> will be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 3 November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Resources (BOE AU)</a> misses out this time but should be added to the index late November or at the regular rebalance in December.</li>
</ul>


Shareholders have approved Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)'s acquisition by TPG and IVC is expected to stop trading after the close on 3 November.

Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) will be replaced by Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 3 November.

Boss Resources (BOE AU) misses out this time but should be added to the index late November or at the regular rebalance in December.


S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Emerald Resources (EMR) To Replace Invocare (IVC)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a> has disclosed a conditional proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhaojin-mining-industry-company-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4626:1" rel="noopener">Zhaojin Mining Industry H (1818 HK)</a> at A$0.58 per share, a 36.5% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.425.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on China and Cote d’Ivoire regulatory approvals (should be forthcoming) and a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition (which can be waived).</li>
<li>The offer is light compared to peer resource multiples and recent share prices. The presence of large Chinese shareholders is a stumbling block for a rival offer. </li>
</ul>



Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU) has disclosed a conditional proposal from Zhaojin Mining Industry H (1818 HK) at A$0.58 per share, a 36.5% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.425.
The offer is conditional on China and Cote d’Ivoire regulatory approvals (should be forthcoming) and a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition (which can be waived).
The offer is light compared to peer resource multiples and recent share prices. The presence of large Chinese shareholders is a stumbling block for a rival offer. 


Tietto Minerals (TIE AU): Zhaojin’s Conditional Off-Market Takeover Offer

Australia

Ramelius Resources Limited is a gold exploration and production company with exploration activities focused in Western Australia.  The Company also explores for base metals.

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Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

OreCorp (ORR AU): Silvercorp Switches to a Takeover Offer to Counter Perseus

The takeover offer is conditional on a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition, which is achievable. A counteroffer by Perseus depends on whether it is...

Arun George

OreCorp (ORR AU): Silvercorp Returns with a Higher Offer

The revised offer was necessitated due to the decline in SVM shares. The revised offer should help the scheme get up. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

OreCorp (ORR AU): A Wide Spread Heading into the 8 December Vote

While the offer has suffered from the steep SVM share price decline, there has been no visible dissent from major shareholders.

Arun George

S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Emerald Resources (EMR) To Replace Invocare (IVC)

Emerald Resources replaces Invocare in the ASX200 at the close on 3 Nov. Boss Energy misses out but could be in the index in the next 6 weeks. The...

Brian Freitas

Tietto Minerals (TIE AU): Zhaojin’s Conditional Off-Market Takeover Offer

The offer is light compared to peer resource multiples and recent share prices. The offer is conditional on regulatory approvals and a 50.1%...

Arun George

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