Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Zozo may lead in online fashion malls but its customer base, while young, is getting older.</li>
<li>In 2020, it acquired a majority stake in Yutori, a fledgling fashion mall targeting the young, which will now list this month.</li>
<li>Yutori has grown sales to ¥2.47 billion since launching five years ago. As well as Japan, it sees a major opportunity across Asia given Japanese street fashion popularity there.</li>
</ul>


Zozo may lead in online fashion malls but its customer base, while young, is getting older.
In 2020, it acquired a majority stake in Yutori, a fledgling fashion mall targeting the young, which will now list this month.
Yutori has grown sales to ¥2.47 billion since launching five years ago. As well as Japan, it sees a major opportunity across Asia given Japanese street fashion popularity there.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be a US$4.6bn secondary placement in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> before year-end as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-seiki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin Corp (7259 JP)</a> unwind cross-holdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> was down 4.85% yesterday (and even more intra-day) and the stock could remain under pressure for the next few weeks.</li>
<li>There will be limited passive buying in conjunction with the secondary offering and active investors will need to buy a lot of stock.</li>
</ul>


There could be a US$4.6bn secondary placement in Denso Corp (6902 JP) before year-end as Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Aisin Corp (7259 JP) unwind cross-holdings.

Denso Corp (6902 JP) was down 4.85% yesterday (and even more intra-day) and the stock could remain under pressure for the next few weeks.
There will be limited passive buying in conjunction with the secondary offering and active investors will need to buy a lot of stock.


Denso Corp (6902 JP): Potential US$4.6bn Placement & Limited Passive Buying

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Since the US$4.0 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>’s shares are down 4.3% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,298 per share (28 November).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Denso’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 13 December. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$4.0 billion secondary placement announcement, Denso Corp (6902 JP)’s shares are down 4.3% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,298 per share (28 November).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Denso’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 13 December. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>On 28th Nov 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> announced that it would sell around 9.4% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> in order to reduce its cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>The shares hadn’t corrected much till our last note on 7th Dec 2023, they have since corrected by 6% .</li>
<li>We have covered the deal background and deal dynamics in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the recent share price movement, as compared to prior deals.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Nov 2023, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced that it would sell around 9.4% of Denso Corp (6902 JP) in order to reduce its cross-shareholding.
The shares hadn’t corrected much till our last note on 7th Dec 2023, they have since corrected by 6% .
We have covered the deal background and deal dynamics in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the recent share price movement, as compared to prior deals.


Denso Corp Placement - Quick Update - In Better Shape Now, Size Concern Remains

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Zozo-Owned Yutori IPO This Month

Zozo-owned Yutori aims to tap into the growing popularity of Japanese street fashion in Asia. Yutori has real promise and its IPO this month could...

Michael Causton

Denso Corp (6902 JP): Potential US$4.6bn Placement & Limited Passive Buying

The Denso Corp block is likely to be priced today. The stock is down 4.7% since the news of the placement and there could be some more downside...

Brian Freitas

Denso (6902 JP): The Current Playbook

The shares are down 4.3% since announcing the offering, which will likely be priced on 13 December. Investors participating in previous large...

Arun George

Denso Corp Placement - Quick Update - In Better Shape Now, Size Concern Remains

On 28th Nov 2023, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced that it would sell around US$4bn of Denso Corp (6902 JP). While the shares didn't correct...

Sumeet Singh

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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