Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Loyalty points offer a significant incentive for consumers when deciding where to buy and many surveys confirm that points are a key factor in selection of online store.  </li>
<li>With inflation biting, the big loyalty programmes are promoting points as a way to save on future purchases.</li>
<li>Rakuten is by far the largest provider (10 pts above anyone else) and is enjoying strong growth – which could help adoption of its mobile store.</li>
</ul>


Loyalty points offer a significant incentive for consumers when deciding where to buy and many surveys confirm that points are a key factor in selection of online store.  
With inflation biting, the big loyalty programmes are promoting points as a way to save on future purchases.
Rakuten is by far the largest provider (10 pts above anyone else) and is enjoying strong growth – which could help adoption of its mobile store.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Rakuten’s Mobile losses have held back its share price over the last few years, but it is finally starting to show some improvements with costs shrinking sequentially in 2QFY22.</li>
<li>However, most investors seem to have overlooked this QoQ drop thinking that it is driven by the impact of seasonality.</li>
<li>With the loss of subscribers in the previous quarter seeming temporary, we are expecting revenue growth through ARPU expansion to more than offset <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> Mobile’s cost growth.</li>
</ul>


Rakuten’s Mobile losses have held back its share price over the last few years, but it is finally starting to show some improvements with costs shrinking sequentially in 2QFY22.
However, most investors seem to have overlooked this QoQ drop thinking that it is driven by the impact of seasonality.
With the loss of subscribers in the previous quarter seeming temporary, we are expecting revenue growth through ARPU expansion to more than offset Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) Mobile’s cost growth.


Rakuten: Two Consecutive Quarters of Narrowing Mobile Losses Could Change Price Momentum

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> is currently trading 20% below the bottom end of the long term trend channel.</li>
<li>With consensus FY+2 EBITDA at ¥309.8bn, Rakuten’s current EV/EBITDA is at an all-time low of 1.7x compared to the historical median and peak of 9.0x and 16.1x respectively.</li>
<li>Based on the consensus FY+2 EBITDA and EV trend, we feel the fair valuation of Rakuten could be somewhere around ¥3,000bn EV.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) is currently trading 20% below the bottom end of the long term trend channel.
With consensus FY+2 EBITDA at ¥309.8bn, Rakuten’s current EV/EBITDA is at an all-time low of 1.7x compared to the historical median and peak of 9.0x and 16.1x respectively.
Based on the consensus FY+2 EBITDA and EV trend, we feel the fair valuation of Rakuten could be somewhere around ¥3,000bn EV.


Rakuten: At a New Forward EV/EBITDA Bottom

Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Rakuten: 17% More Points in 2022

Rakuten;s biggest strength in e-commerce and the wider digital ecosystem is its popular loyalty points programme. Rivals are circling but Rakuten...

Michael Causton

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Rakuten: Two Consecutive Quarters of Narrowing Mobile Losses Could Change Price Momentum

With the loss of subscribers in the previous quarter seeming temporary, we are expecting revenue growth through ARPU expansion to more than offset...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Rakuten: At a New Forward EV/EBITDA Bottom

After falling 6% following Q4 earnings and 39% since March 2021 to ¥945 per share, Rakuten seems an attractive bet on the long side in the Japanese...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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