Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Rakuten Mobile: Expecting Losses To Shrink With Symphony & Energy Turning Profitable

Rakuten: Bank IPO On the Cusp of Int Rate Cycle, Symphony & Energy to Reduce Scepticism on Mobile

Rakuten Bank IPO Points That the Market Could Be Undervaluing Rakuten’s Businesses & Investments

Rakuten's Fortunes Could Change With The Rakuten Bank IPO

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rakuten’s Mobile losses have held back its share price over the last few years, but it is finally starting to show some improvements with costs shrinking sequentially in 2QFY22.</li>
<li>However, most investors seem to have overlooked this QoQ drop thinking that it is driven by the impact of seasonality.</li>
<li>With the loss of subscribers in the previous quarter seeming temporary, we are expecting revenue growth through ARPU expansion to more than offset <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> Mobile’s cost growth.</li>
</ul>


Rakuten’s Mobile losses have held back its share price over the last few years, but it is finally starting to show some improvements with costs shrinking sequentially in 2QFY22.
However, most investors seem to have overlooked this QoQ drop thinking that it is driven by the impact of seasonality.
With the loss of subscribers in the previous quarter seeming temporary, we are expecting revenue growth through ARPU expansion to more than offset Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) Mobile’s cost growth.


Rakuten: Two Consecutive Quarters of Narrowing Mobile Losses Could Change Price Momentum