Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Douyu International Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In a particularly altruistic move, live-streaming game platform play <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douyu-international-hold-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28045:1" rel="noopener">Douyu International Holdings (DOYU US)</a>  </strong><a href="https://ir.douyu.com/2024-07-03-DouYu-International-Holdings-Limited-Announces-Special-Cash-Dividend" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a special cash dividend of US$9.76/share, vs. a last price of US$12.59.</li>
<li>The cash outlay is roughly US$308mn, and Douyu had cash (as at 1Q24) of <a href="https://ir.douyu.com/2024-06-05-DouYu-International-Holdings-Limited-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Unaudited-Financial-Results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US$936.6mn</a>. And no debt.  Founder/chairman/CEO Shaojie Chen (17.2% shareholder) will pocket a tidy ~US$53mn.</li>
<li>An outlier; or should we expect more of the same for other cash-rich US-listed China plays?</li>
</ul>


In a particularly altruistic move, live-streaming game platform play Douyu International Holdings (DOYU US)  announced a special cash dividend of US$9.76/share, vs. a last price of US$12.59.
The cash outlay is roughly US$308mn, and Douyu had cash (as at 1Q24) of US$936.6mn. And no debt.  Founder/chairman/CEO Shaojie Chen (17.2% shareholder) will pocket a tidy ~US$53mn.
An outlier; or should we expect more of the same for other cash-rich US-listed China plays?


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Seeing as though it is Chinese New Year week, I thought it might be appropriate to conduct a brief analysis of US-listed China plays.</li>
<li>According to a recent US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report, 265 Chinese companies were listed on the NYSE, Nasdaq and NYSE American exchanges in January 2024 worth US$848bn. </li>
<li>That's down from 252 companies worth US$1.03tn a year ago, a 17.5% decline. 91% of the total market capitalization of Chinese firms listed on U.S. exchanges use VIEs.</li>
</ul>


Seeing as though it is Chinese New Year week, I thought it might be appropriate to conduct a brief analysis of US-listed China plays.
According to a recent US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report, 265 Chinese companies were listed on the NYSE, Nasdaq and NYSE American exchanges in January 2024 worth US$848bn. 
That's down from 252 companies worth US$1.03tn a year ago, a 17.5% decline. 91% of the total market capitalization of Chinese firms listed on U.S. exchanges use VIEs.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Screening US-listed China plays with negative EV and positive tailing EBITDA generates eight names. </li>
<li>Of these companies, only two are expected to be EBITDA positive in FY22. </li>
<li>They are <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a></strong> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohu-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22853:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Sohu.com (SOHU US</strong>)</a>. This insight looks at both names. </li>
</ul>


Screening US-listed China plays with negative EV and positive tailing EBITDA generates eight names. 
Of these companies, only two are expected to be EBITDA positive in FY22. 
They are JOYY (YY US) and Sohu.com (SOHU US). This insight looks at both names. 


Negative EVs: JOYY & Sohu's Steep Discount To Net Cash

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29690:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holdings (LU US)</a> is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. Lufax has launched its IPO at a price range of $11.50-13.50 per ADS to raise net proceeds of $2,109 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Lufax will command a market cap of $30.5 billion which is around 20% lower than the 2018 Series C round valuation of $39 billion. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-ipo-initiation-lost-in-transition" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that while Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.</p></div></div></div>

Lufax Holdings (LU US) is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. Lufax has launched its IPO at a price range of $11.50-13.50 per ADS to raise net proceeds of $2,109 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Lufax will command a market cap of $30.5 billion which is around 20% lower than the 2018 Series C round valuation of $39 billion. In our initiation note, we stated that while Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29690:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holdings (LU US)</a> is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. In retail credit, Lufax is the second-largest non-traditional financial service providers in China as measured by outstanding balances of retail credit facilitated, according to Oliver Wyman. Lufax has filed for an NYSE IPO to raise an estimated $3 billion, according to press reports. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The Chinese consumer finance sector has gone through a corona-induced extreme stress test in 1H20. The sector has proved to be more often than not value destructive for public market investors and continues to remain hostage to regulatory change. While Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile.  </p></div>

Lufax Holdings (LU US) is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. In retail credit, Lufax is the second-largest non-traditional financial service providers in China as measured by outstanding balances of retail credit facilitated, according to Oliver Wyman. Lufax has filed for an NYSE IPO to raise an estimated $3 billion, according to press reports. The Chinese consumer finance sector has gone through a corona-induced extreme stress test in 1H20. The sector has proved to be more often than not value destructive for public market investors and continues to remain hostage to regulatory change. While Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile.  

United States

Qudian Inc. provides online credit products. The Company offers cash credit products which includes funds in digital form and merchandise credit products. Qudian serves customers in China.

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Qudian Inc (QD US)

Screening For The Next Douyu (DOYU US)

In an altruistic move, Douyu announced a special dividend of US$9.76/share, vs. a last price of US$12.59. An outlier; or should we expect more of...

David Blennerhassett

Musings On US-Listed China Plays

Investors in Chinese companies may be willing to support activities that are contrary to US national interests, including technology used for...

David Blennerhassett

Negative EVs: JOYY & Sohu's Steep Discount To Net Cash

I'd tilt slightly towards Sohu. It did successfully sell Sogou; whereas Joyy failed to sell YY live. That may provide some insight as to how the...

David Blennerhassett

Lufax IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

Arun George

Lufax IPO Initiation: Lost in Transition

We find it hard to be enthused by the Lufax story as its heavily reliant on a sector that has repeatedly been subject to regulatory blows which led...

Arun George

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