Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Another week in earnings, the big theme I can point out is the continued and persistent weakness in the Industrial market.</li><li>Reminder: in a first-in-first-out (FIFO) framework, the first into the inventory correction were PCs and Smartphones.</li><li>Then, networking and data center, and we are now seeing Industrial start their inventory correction cycle. I don’t think this is the last we will hear about this. </li></ul>

Another week in earnings, the big theme I can point out is the continued and persistent weakness in the Industrial market.Reminder: in a first-in-first-out (FIFO) framework, the first into the inventory correction were PCs and Smartphones.Then, networking and data center, and we are now seeing Industrial start their inventory correction cycle. I don’t think this is the last we will hear about this. 

Earnings Season Post (ANET, AMKR, RMBS, LSCC, AMD, Advantest, SLAB, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, SITM...)

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan company results supported their views as well.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, Novatek, Asustek, and Himax are set to release in Taiwan. Combined with NXP abroad, this will provide color on display demand, automotive, and servers/PCs.</li>
<li>A new Chinese memory chip maker just received major government investment, with an IPO of its related company planned.</li>
</ul>


Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan company results supported their views as well.
Looking ahead, Novatek, Asustek, and Himax are set to release in Taiwan. Combined with NXP abroad, this will provide color on display demand, automotive, and servers/PCs.
A new Chinese memory chip maker just received major government investment, with an IPO of its related company planned.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Positive Signs for Memory, PC, Smartphones; Key Autos & Display Color This Week

<ul>
<li>Key Results This Week: Delta, Elan, ChipMOS, Nuvoton, AU Optronics in Taiwan... Plus Samsung, AMD, and Qualcomm.</li>
<li>Positive signs for the PC &amp; mobile space have come from recent Intel, UMC, Mediatek results.</li>
<li>Top Losers: Macronix Slumps on Weak Results and Outlook, Hon Hai Slumps on China Tax &amp; Land Probe</li>
</ul>


Key Results This Week: Delta, Elan, ChipMOS, Nuvoton, AU Optronics in Taiwan... Plus Samsung, AMD, and Qualcomm.
Positive signs for the PC &amp; mobile space have come from recent Intel, UMC, Mediatek results.
Top Losers: Macronix Slumps on Weak Results and Outlook, Hon Hai Slumps on China Tax &amp; Land Probe


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Wave of Key Taiwan Results; Heavyweights Samsung, AMD, Qualcomm Internationally

Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Iridium Communications / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>IRDM used its third quarter results as means to update investors on where operating EBITDA would end up for 2023 and the continued progress with direct to device</li>
<li>IRDM reported quarterly results missing our estimates due to a larger than expected decline in equipment revenue. </li>
<li>The Qualcomm (QCOM) partnership is poised to emerge as the most significant catalyst for 2024</li>
</ul>


IRDM used its third quarter results as means to update investors on where operating EBITDA would end up for 2023 and the continued progress with direct to device
IRDM reported quarterly results missing our estimates due to a larger than expected decline in equipment revenue. 
The Qualcomm (QCOM) partnership is poised to emerge as the most significant catalyst for 2024


Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.</li>
<li>TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.</li>
<li>Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.
TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.
Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.


TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

Earnings Season Post (ANET, AMKR, RMBS, LSCC, AMD, Advantest, SLAB, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, SITM...)

Another week in earnings, the big theme I can point out is the continued and persistent weakness in the Industrial market.

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Positive Signs for Memory, PC, Smartphones; Key Autos & Display Color This Week

Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Wave of Key Taiwan Results; Heavyweights Samsung, AMD, Qualcomm Internationally

This week's key results in Taiwan include Delta, Elan, ChipMOS, Nuvoton, and AU Optronics. Positive signs for the PC and mobile space have been...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

IRDM: Valuation Reset, Cash Flow Rising

IRDM's management downplayed the timing of when IRDM would generate royalties from its partnership with QCOM leading to the stock to remove the...

BWS Financial Inc

TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

TSMC maintained its expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. It also reiterated its view that it can maintain its gross margin near all...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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