Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weights</li><li>In all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets, which is by far the most important category of risk- weighted assets</li><li>The risk is that under new regulations those banks benefiting from internal models to drive their credit risk estimates, will be penalized the most</li><li>Australia's banks stand out as possibly being hardest hit, but we are not convinced</li><li>Hang Seng Bank, is at the other end of the spectrum, and may be less over capitalised than it appears</li></ul>

BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weightsIn all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets, which is by far the most important category of risk- weighted assetsThe risk is that under new regulations those banks benefiting from internal models to drive their credit risk estimates, will be penalized the mostAustralia's banks stand out as possibly being hardest hit, but we are not convincedHang Seng Bank, is at the other end of the spectrum, and may be less over capitalised than it appears 

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

<ul><li>Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks.</li><li>Already elevated EM equities &amp; currencies just got jet fuel injected into their fires. EUR to gun for 1.15, AUD for 78c…</li><li>So tactically one can focus on being right &amp; comfortable while potentially missing on the potential continuation of the near-term trends, or one can focus on making money &amp; get uncomfortable by playing the melt-up</li></ul>

 Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks.Already elevated EM equities &amp; currencies just got jet fuel injected into their fires. EUR to gun for 1.15, AUD for 78c…So tactically one can focus on being right &amp; comfortable while potentially missing on the potential continuation of the near-term trends, or one can focus on making money &amp; get uncomfortable by playing the melt-up 

Global Macro Take: WK 12. Dollar Melt-Down = EM EQ + EM FX + CMD Melt-Up

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

In addition to Whiskey investing, or buying paintings of Great Masters, there are truly great opportunities to invest, learn and derive enjoyment from the activity and art of investing.Jerry Seinfeld made headlines with his Porsche collection this week, though showing you can also lose on car investing…Cuban cigars, most especially special humidor editions, have proved good investments at times… when not all smoked. The holy grail here perhaps has been “Cuban Davidoffs” and Cohibas from the early 90s.   We can’t all be so lucky as to play with expensive cars or chase expensive wines. But there are a few things we can and should do.  Gold should be at the top of the list for so many reasons.  Not as a fad, but as a generational practice. There is a way to focus on long term premiums in gold.

In addition to Whiskey investing, or buying paintings of Great Masters, there are truly great opportunities to invest, learn and derive enjoyment from the activity and art of investing.Jerry Seinfeld made headlines with his Porsche collection this week, though showing you can also lose on car investing…Cuban cigars, most especially special humidor editions, have proved good investments at times… when not all smoked. The holy grail here perhaps has been “Cuban Davidoffs” and Cohibas from the early 90s.   We can’t all be so lucky as to play with expensive cars or chase expensive wines. But there are a few things we can and should do.  Gold should be at the top of the list for so many reasons.  Not as a fad, but as a generational practice. There is a way to focus on long term premiums in gold.

Collectibles and the Many Ways to Buy Gold: Focus on Premium Generation Strategy

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

Macroeconomics

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the opportunities currently available from strategic currency allocations.

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the opportunities currently available from strategic currency allocations.  

Portfolio Return Opportunity from Strategic Currency Allocations?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 8 March 2016<div>Cycle inflection points</div>To view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/2hBvPl15" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/2hBvPl15</a> 4:14 min.<div>Our focus is on inflection turn signals across classes given we are entering a cycle turn date today that may stretch a few days but this week ST tops are due.</div>WTI close to 38 resistance after a big run is due for a at least a pullback within our more bullish March cycle.<div>CAD at even more interesting chart support for a short CAD/long USD. March is expected to…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 8 March 2016Cycle inflection pointsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/2hBvPl15 4:14 min.Our focus is on inflection turn signals across classes given we are entering a cycle turn date today that may stretch a few days but this week ST tops are due.WTI close to 38 resistance after a big run is due for a at least a pullback within our more bullish March cycle.CAD at even more interesting chart support for a short CAD/long USD. March is expected to…

Australia

QBE Insurance Group Limited is an insurance company which underwrites most forms of commercial and industrial insurance policies, as well as individual policies. QBE also manages Lloyds syndicates and provides investment management services. The Company provides its services both domestically and internationally.

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Qbe Insurance (QBE AU)

Bank Regulatory Changes to Credit Risk

BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weights In all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets,...

Daniel Tabbush

Global Macro Take: WK 12. Dollar Melt-Down = EM EQ + EM FX + CMD Melt-Up

Barring some kind of shock-event, US dollar liquidation will drive markets for the near-term, possibly even a few weeks. Already elevated EM...

Kay Van-Petersen

Collectibles and the Many Ways to Buy Gold: Focus on Premium Generation Strategy

In addition to Whiskey investing, or buying paintings of Great Masters, there are truly great opportunities to invest, learn and derive enjoyment...

Charles De Trenck

Portfolio Return Opportunity from Strategic Currency Allocations?

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the...

ClearMacro

Cycle Inflection Turns

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 8 March 2016Cycle inflection pointsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/2hBvPl15 4:14 min.Our focus...

Thomas Schroeder

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