FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example. &nbsp;Differences in NPL coverage trends, can help frame where banks are in their NPL cycle or how well prepared they are making themselves. Or both.&nbsp;The stand out is China.

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example. &nbsp;Differences in NPL coverage trends, can help frame where banks are in their NPL cycle or how well prepared they are making themselves. Or both.&nbsp;The stand out is China.

Beware of NPL Coverage Trends Across Asia

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Global commodity prices have continued to slide in recent months, with the RBA Commodity Price index down another 5% in US dollar terms.&nbsp; Nonetheless, the Australian dollar has been resilient in the face of commodity headwinds, rising by around 4% against the US dollar, thanks to&nbsp;the extreme under-valuation that the A$ had reached by the end of September.&nbsp;</li><li>As a result of the recent&nbsp;lift in the A$ and continued weakness in commodity prices, the model's strong A$ buy signal has diminished, with the currency now trading only 3% below fair value.</li><li>Evidente's basket of ASX listed US dollar earners&nbsp;has yielded&nbsp;poor returns since peaking in March despite renewed depreciation of the A$/US$.&nbsp; Limited valuation support based on ROE adjusted P/B ratios suggests that the performance of the basket will continue to be capped in the near-term.&nbsp;</li></ul>

Global commodity prices have continued to slide in recent months, with the RBA Commodity Price index down another 5% in US dollar terms.&nbsp; Nonetheless, the Australian dollar has been resilient in the face of commodity headwinds, rising by around 4% against the US dollar, thanks to&nbsp;the extreme under-valuation that the A$ had reached by the end of September.&nbsp;As a result of the recent&nbsp;lift in the A$ and continued weakness in commodity prices, the model's strong A$ buy signal has diminished, with the currency now trading only 3% below fair value.Evidente's basket of ASX listed US dollar earners&nbsp;has yielded&nbsp;poor returns since peaking in March despite renewed depreciation of the A$/US$.&nbsp; Limited valuation support based on ROE adjusted P/B ratios suggests that the performance of the basket will continue to be capped in the near-term.&nbsp;

Buy Signal for the A$ Weakens as the Currency Remains Resilient in the Face of Commodity Headwinds

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li>Balance sheet strength, management acuity, and regulatory systems matter more for financial services firms than other stock sectors.</li><li>Financial crises are rarely driven by economic shocks alone. Nonmacro factors embedded in the regulatory, competitive, political, and economic environments are bigger contributors to banking crises.</li><li>Leverage can be moat-destructive. Given the hefty amounts of financial and operating leverage in the business models of Financial Services firms, it is critical to focus on firms with stable management teams, consistent business strategies, and selective mergers and acquisitions policies.</li><li>Transformative deals are rarely moat-enhancing. With relationships, reputations and business culture all being critical contributors to business success, it is rare to see a firm pull off a "transformative" deal that does not disrupt one of these pillars, which is why most acquisitions fall short of their original intent.</li></ul>Analyst: Greggory Warren, CFA

Balance sheet strength, management acuity, and regulatory systems matter more for financial services firms than other stock sectors.Financial crises are rarely driven by economic shocks alone. Nonmacro factors embedded in the regulatory, competitive, political, and economic environments are bigger contributors to banking crises.Leverage can be moat-destructive. Given the hefty amounts of financial and operating leverage in the business models of Financial Services firms, it is critical to focus on firms with stable management teams, consistent business strategies, and selective mergers and acquisitions policies.Transformative deals are rarely moat-enhancing. With relationships, reputations and business culture all being critical contributors to business success, it is rare to see a firm pull off a "transformative" deal that does not disrupt one of these pillars, which is why most acquisitions fall short of their original intent.Analyst: Greggory Warren, CFA

Australia

QBE Insurance Group Limited is an insurance company which underwrites most forms of commercial and industrial insurance policies, as well as individual policies. QBE also manages Lloyds syndicates and provides investment management services. The Company provides its services both domestically and internationally.

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Qbe Insurance (QBE AU)

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence. Bottom...

Greg Gibbs

A Gradual NPL Cycle in Asia

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%,...

Daniel Tabbush

Beware of NPL Coverage Trends Across Asia

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example....

Daniel Tabbush

Buy Signal for the A$ Weakens as the Currency Remains Resilient in the Face of Commodity Headwinds

Global commodity prices have continued to slide in recent months, with the RBA Commodity Price index down another 5% in US dollar terms. ...

Sam Ferraro

Breaking the Bank

Balance sheet strength, management acuity, and regulatory systems matter more for financial services firms than other stock sectors. Financial...

Morningstar, Inc.

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