FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

<p><em>The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.</em></p>

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) (SMFG US)

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr)

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) ADR (MUFG US)

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength