Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for Express with the company announcing 3QFY23 (October) results before the open on Thursday.</li><li>With a new Chief Executive Officer and Head Merchant and the Chief Financial Officer recently resigning for another opportunity, the 3Q call will be the first pronouncements from new management.</li><li>As such, and with operating comparisons continuing to ease and the product mix (especially in women's) improving, we reiterate our Buy rating and pricetarget for EXPR.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for Express with the company announcing 3QFY23 (October) results before the open on Thursday.With a new Chief Executive Officer and Head Merchant and the Chief Financial Officer recently resigning for another opportunity, the 3Q call will be the first pronouncements from new management.As such, and with operating comparisons continuing to ease and the product mix (especially in women's) improving, we reiterate our Buy rating and pricetarget for EXPR.

EXPR; 3Q Preview: New Management Set to Introduce Themselves; Reiterate Buy, PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target for Guess?, after the company reported mixed 3QFY24 (October) results, with EBITDA handily beating Street consensus, but EPS a miss, driven by a higher than expected tax rate and slightly weaker top line results, as Europe saw slowing traffic and the domestic stores remain negative.</li><li>Jeans), the recapture of the company's license for domestic outerwear and a normalization of the expense base.</li><li>As such, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target on GES, which now translates to 6.5X our new FY25 EBITDA.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target for Guess?, after the company reported mixed 3QFY24 (October) results, with EBITDA handily beating Street consensus, but EPS a miss, driven by a higher than expected tax rate and slightly weaker top line results, as Europe saw slowing traffic and the domestic stores remain negative.Jeans), the recapture of the company's license for domestic outerwear and a normalization of the expense base.As such, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target on GES, which now translates to 6.5X our new FY25 EBITDA.

GES: 3Q Review: Guess Goes Conservative for 4Q; Reiterate Buy, $32.50 Pt

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Surveying the retail landscape over the weekend…we think we could see big reversals in the coming weeks for retail stocks.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Surveying the retail landscape over the weekend…we think we could see big reversals in the coming weeks for retail stocks.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly:  3 Things that Stood Out (In Retail) The Week of 5/​15/​2020

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Forward Fashion (International) / Equity Capital Markets

Headquartered in Hong Kong, Forward Fashion was founded in 2005 and is involved in retailing fashion apparel in Greater China. The company currently operates 225 self-operated retail stores in Greater China under famous brand names such as Ed Hardy, Under Armour, Neil Barrett and Calvin Klein. Given brand names we believe, the company caters to the mid to high-end segment of the apparel retail market.  The company operates retail stores in Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong, and recently started operations in Taiwan. The majority of these stores exclusively sell one brand while a small portion of stores sells a broad array of brands which are under the license with Forward Fashion.

Headquartered in Hong Kong, Forward Fashion was founded in 2005 and is involved in retailing fashion apparel in Greater China. The company currently operates 225 self-operated retail stores in Greater China under famous brand names such as Ed Hardy, Under Armour, Neil Barrett and Calvin Klein. Given brand names we believe, the company caters to the mid to high-end segment of the apparel retail market.  The company operates retail stores in Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong, and recently started operations in Taiwan. The majority of these stores exclusively sell one brand while a small portion of stores sells a broad array of brands which are under the license with Forward Fashion.

Forward Fashion IPO – Business Analysis

United States

PVH Corp. designs, sources, manufactures, and markets men's, women's, and children's apparel and footwear.  The Company markets its products at a wholesale level through department store chains and directly to consumers through retail stores. PVH Corp offers attire that includes dress shirts, sportswear, neckwear, and footwear.

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Pvh Corp (PVH US)

EXPR; 3Q Preview: New Management Set to Introduce Themselves; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for Express with the company announcing 3QFY23 (October) results before the...

Small Cap Consumer Research

GES: 3Q Review: Guess Goes Conservative for 4Q; Reiterate Buy, $32.50 Pt

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target for Guess?, after the company reported mixed 3QFY24 (October) results, with EBITDA...

Small Cap Consumer Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

We are seeing signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Add to biotech, small-...

Vermilion Research

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out (In Retail) The Week of 5/15/2020

Surveying the retail landscape over the weekend…we think we could see big reversals in the coming weeks for retail stocks.Obex’s fundamental...

Aaron Gabin

Forward Fashion IPO – Business Analysis

Headquartered in Hong Kong, Forward Fashion was founded in 2005 and is involved in retailing fashion apparel in Greater China. The company...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EXPR; 3Q Preview: New Management Set to Introduce Themselves; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for Express with the company announcing 3QFY23 (October) results before the...

Small Cap Consumer Research

GES: 3Q Review: Guess Goes Conservative for 4Q; Reiterate Buy, $32.50 Pt

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target for Guess?, after the company reported mixed 3QFY24 (October) results, with EBITDA...

Small Cap Consumer Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

We are seeing signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Add to biotech, small-...

Vermilion Research

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out (In Retail) The Week of 5/​15/​2020

Surveying the retail landscape over the weekend…we think we could see big reversals in the coming weeks for retail stocks.Obex’s fundamental...

Aaron Gabin

Forward Fashion IPO – Business Analysis

Headquartered in Hong Kong, Forward Fashion was founded in 2005 and is involved in retailing fashion apparel in Greater China. The company...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out (In Retail) The Week of 5/15/2020