European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The voluntary partial (15% of share capital) takeover bid launched by Gubel for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosegur-cia-de-seguridad-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21290:1" rel="noopener">Prosegur (PSG SM)</a> has been accepted by 13.23%, thus 88.23% acceptance, and no proration. Gubel increases its grip to 73.14%.</li>
<li>The free float has been reduced to 17.5% on a market cap of just €994 million. A delisting offer could well happen in the future and would make sense financially.</li>
<li>Prosegur has 81.45% of Prosegur Cash, which could also become target of a delisting offer. Its shares have low liquidity, hence are overlooked and cheap (6.9x Fwd P/E vs. 9.7x Securitas).</li>
</ul>


The voluntary partial (15% of share capital) takeover bid launched by Gubel for Prosegur (PSG SM) has been accepted by 13.23%, thus 88.23% acceptance, and no proration. Gubel increases its grip to 73.14%.
The free float has been reduced to 17.5% on a market cap of just €994 million. A delisting offer could well happen in the future and would make sense financially.
Prosegur has 81.45% of Prosegur Cash, which could also become target of a delisting offer. Its shares have low liquidity, hence are overlooked and cheap (6.9x Fwd P/E vs. 9.7x Securitas).


Gubel/Prosegur: Offer Results & Potential Delisting Bids

<ul>
<li>The CNMV authorizes the partial takeover bid of Gubel S.L., for 15% of the shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosegur-cia-de-seguridad-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21290:1" rel="noopener">Prosegur (PSG SM)</a> at €1.83/share. Acceptance period until 19 March, although extension possible to 13 May.</li>
<li>I recommend long and tender, both because of the current spread and the fact that its already low liquidity and low free float will be even lower after closing.</li>
<li>I believe the proration risk is minimal. Spread is 2.95%/12.43% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement on 23 May).</li>
</ul>


The CNMV authorizes the partial takeover bid of Gubel S.L., for 15% of the shares of Prosegur (PSG SM) at €1.83/share. Acceptance period until 19 March, although extension possible to 13 May.
I recommend long and tender, both because of the current spread and the fact that its already low liquidity and low free float will be even lower after closing.
I believe the proration risk is minimal. Spread is 2.95%/12.43% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement on 23 May).


Gubel/​Prosegur: Acceptance Period, Spread

<ul>
<li>Top shareholder Gubel (59.9% stake) launches a cash partial takeover offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosegur-cia-de-seguridad-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21290:1" rel="noopener">Prosegur Cia De Seguridad Sa (PSG SM)</a> at €1.83/share, cum dividend, except for €0.0661/share dividend payable on 1 December.</li>
<li>Premium 27.4%, 4.1x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, 7.5x Fwd P/E. The founders profit from an underperforming share price to increase their stake, and this could comfortably be financed with the dividends.</li>
<li>Gross spread, including December dividend, is c. 7%, which is quite good even considering risk of apportionment, although patience may be needed to accumulate a large position.</li>
</ul>


Top shareholder Gubel (59.9% stake) launches a cash partial takeover offer for Prosegur Cia De Seguridad Sa (PSG SM) at €1.83/share, cum dividend, except for €0.0661/share dividend payable on 1 December.
Premium 27.4%, 4.1x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, 7.5x Fwd P/E. The founders profit from an underperforming share price to increase their stake, and this could comfortably be financed with the dividends.
Gross spread, including December dividend, is c. 7%, which is quite good even considering risk of apportionment, although patience may be needed to accumulate a large position.


Gubel/Prosegur: Partial Takeover Offer at Interesting Spread

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The trade of being short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> vs Nikkei 225 or Sector Basket is fundamentally slightly short Nikkei 225 froth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano (709 HK)</a>'s SGM will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities vote. Digging a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, provides some (not-altogether) surprising results.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/az-com-maruwa-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17280:1" rel="noopener">AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)</a> intends to launch a Tender Offer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> without having contacted C&amp;F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum!</li>
</ul>


The trade of being short Fast Retailing (9983 JP) vs Nikkei 225 or Sector Basket is fundamentally slightly short Nikkei 225 froth.

Giordano (709 HK)'s SGM will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities vote. Digging a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, provides some (not-altogether) surprising results.

AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) intends to launch a Tender Offer on Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) without having contacted C&amp;F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum!


Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan's Big Dividend

<ul>
<li>There is no suggestion of precondition breach attached to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>'s impairment losses. </li>
<li>Seven Group, now holding 71.6%, has returned to the well, and made a cash/scrip Offer for shares not owned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral (BLD AU)</a>, with certain tendering thresholds triggering more cash.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itoki-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18032:1" rel="noopener">Itoki Corp (7972 JP)</a>'s mega ToSTNeT-3 buyback is now done.</li>
</ul>


There is no suggestion of precondition breach attached to Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)'s impairment losses. 
Seven Group, now holding 71.6%, has returned to the well, and made a cash/scrip Offer for shares not owned in Boral (BLD AU), with certain tendering thresholds triggering more cash.

Itoki Corp (7972 JP)'s mega ToSTNeT-3 buyback is now done.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing, Boral, Itoki, CIMC Vehicle, Dissentient Shareholder Rights

Spain

Prosegur, Compania de Seguridad SA offers security and transportation services. The Company offers surveillance, electronic security, and burglar alarms.  It also transports funds, periodicals and corporate mail, and stores, handles, and distributes special materials.  Prosegur operates in Europe and the Americas.

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Prosegur (PSG SM)

Gubel/Prosegur: Offer Results & Potential Delisting Bids

Gubel's takeover bid for Prosegur accepted by 88.23%, with founding family increasing grip to 73.14%. A delisting offer could be possible due to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Gubel/Prosegur: Acceptance Period, Spread

CNMV authorizes Gubel S.L. to make partial takeover bid for 15% of Prosegur shares at €1.83/share. Acceptance period until 19 March, with...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Gubel/Prosegur: Partial Takeover Offer at Interesting Spread

Top shareholder Gubel launches cash partial takeover offer for Prosegur at €1.83/share, founders profit from underperforming share price to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan's Big Dividend

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing, Boral, Itoki, CIMC Vehicle, Dissentient Shareholder Rights

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gubel/Prosegur: Offer Results & Potential Delisting Bids

​Gubel's takeover bid for Prosegur accepted by 88.23%, with founding family increasing grip to 73.14%. A delisting offer could be possible due to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Gubel/​Prosegur: Acceptance Period, Spread

​CNMV authorizes Gubel S.L. to make partial takeover bid for 15% of Prosegur shares at €1.83/share. Acceptance period until 19 March, with...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Gubel/Prosegur: Partial Takeover Offer at Interesting Spread

​Top shareholder Gubel launches cash partial takeover offer for Prosegur at €1.83/share, founders profit from underperforming share price to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan's Big Dividend

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing, Boral, Itoki, CIMC Vehicle, Dissentient Shareholder Rights

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Gubel's takeover bid for Prosegur accepted by 88.23%, with founding family increasing grip to 73.14%. A delisting offer could be possible due to...

Gubel/Prosegur: Acceptance Period, Spread

CNMV authorizes Gubel S.L. to make partial takeover bid for 15% of Prosegur shares at €1.83/share. Acceptance period until 19 March, with...

Top shareholder Gubel launches cash partial takeover offer for Prosegur at €1.83/share, founders profit from underperforming share price to...