Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a></strong>, the world’s largest gold miner, has pitched a non-binding, all-scrip proposal for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a></strong>, Australia’s largest listed gold company.  </li>
<li>The proposal offers 0.38 Newmont shares for every Newcrest share, or an indicative Offer price of A$27.16/share, a 21% premium to last close. An earlier proposal from Newmont was rejected.</li>
<li>The proposal is subject to a raft of conditions, including granting of exclusivity to Newmont, due diligence, Newmont shareholder approval, and regulatory approvals, including FIRB.</li>
</ul>



Newmont Mining (NEM US), the world’s largest gold miner, has pitched a non-binding, all-scrip proposal for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Australia’s largest listed gold company.  
The proposal offers 0.38 Newmont shares for every Newcrest share, or an indicative Offer price of A$27.16/share, a 21% premium to last close. An earlier proposal from Newmont was rejected.
The proposal is subject to a raft of conditions, including granting of exclusivity to Newmont, due diligence, Newmont shareholder approval, and regulatory approvals, including FIRB.


Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> has made an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>. The exchange ratio is 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share.</li>
<li>At <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>'s last close, this values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> at A$27.4/share and at an equity value of A$17.3bn, a 22% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> intends to list CDIs on the ASX following the acquisition and that will have implications for changes in the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices.</li>
</ul>



Newmont Mining (NEM US) has made an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire Newcrest Mining (NCM AU). The exchange ratio is 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share.
At Newmont Mining (NEM US)'s last close, this values Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) at A$27.4/share and at an equity value of A$17.3bn, a 22% premium to the last close.

Newmont Mining (NEM US) intends to list CDIs on the ASX following the acquisition and that will have implications for changes in the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices.


Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). </li>
<li>Gold miners (GDX) are attractive bottom-fishing candidates as price and RS show signs of bottoming -- add exposure. We are bullish as long as the GDX is above $31</li>
<li>Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, Gold, GDX, AMZN, NFLX, JD, VIPS, SSTK, OSTK, KL, BTG, AGI, PVG, EGO, SA, IAG, NGD, GFI, AU, and HMY</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). 
Gold miners (GDX) are attractive bottom-fishing candidates as price and RS show signs of bottoming -- add exposure. We are bullish as long as the GDX is above $31
Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, Gold, GDX, AMZN, NFLX, JD, VIPS, SSTK, OSTK, KL, BTG, AGI, PVG, EGO, SA, IAG, NGD, GFI, AU, and HMY


Canada

Pretium Resources Inc. acquires, explores, and develops precious metal resource properties. The Company focuses primarily on gold deposits at sites in Northern British Columbia, Canada.

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Pretium Resources (PVG CN)

Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold

Newcrest will, in all likelihood, grant due diligence to Newmont. I don't expect any FIRB pushback. Look to short Newmont late in the day, and buy...

David Blennerhassett

Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Newmont is looking to acquire Newcrest Mining at an exchange ratio of 0.38 NEM shares per NCM share. That is a 22% premium for NCM. NEM intends to...

Brian Freitas

Bullish Outlook Intact; Mining For Gold

Our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). We continue to believe we have...

Vermilion Research

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