HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The first to be affected is the clinical trial projects under way in Ukraine. It’s possible that pharmaceutical companies may lose such a high-quality and low cost clinical trial center. </li>
<li>Ukraine plays an important role in the healthcare supply chain. So, the war would affected both pharmaceutical companies and medical device companies, both directly and indirectly.</li>
<li>The risk to CXO is not completely eliminated. The “cyclical nature” of CRO industry could begin to show. But CDMO is better than CRO in terms of short-term investment opportunities.</li>
</ul>


The first to be affected is the clinical trial projects under way in Ukraine. It’s possible that pharmaceutical companies may lose such a high-quality and low cost clinical trial center. 
Ukraine plays an important role in the healthcare supply chain. So, the war would affected both pharmaceutical companies and medical device companies, both directly and indirectly.
The risk to CXO is not completely eliminated. The “cyclical nature” of CRO industry could begin to show. But CDMO is better than CRO in terms of short-term investment opportunities.


Russia-Ukraine War: The Impact on China Healthcare

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK)</a> released the preliminary financial data for 2021. It is not surprising that the Company could maintain its outstanding performance.</li>
<li>We listed some interesting points to ponder, such as projected declining performance of WuXi DDSU and related chain reaction, the change in fair value of financial assets, overseas anticipation, etc..</li>
<li>It’s understandable if investors choose to start making layout at this point due to attractive valuation and longer “reflection arc”,but need to be patient for WuXi AppTec to achieve reversal.</li>
</ul>



WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK) released the preliminary financial data for 2021. It is not surprising that the Company could maintain its outstanding performance.
We listed some interesting points to ponder, such as projected declining performance of WuXi DDSU and related chain reaction, the change in fair value of financial assets, overseas anticipation, etc..
It’s understandable if investors choose to start making layout at this point due to attractive valuation and longer “reflection arc”,but need to be patient for WuXi AppTec to achieve reversal.


WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH)- Interesting Points to Ponder Behind 2021 Preliminary Financial Data

<ul>
<li>China attaches great importance to gene therapy and related products, which would be a leader of the third industrial revolution in biomedicine and have broad prospects for future development.</li>
<li>With obvious strength in this field,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genscript-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21041:1" rel="noopener">Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)</a>’s businesses are in line with the future trend and the outlook is also quite promising, indicating exponential growth potential in valuation.</li>
<li>However, the potential risks on deterioration of international relations and the concerns on CAR-T commercialization should not be neglected by investors.</li>
</ul>


China attaches great importance to gene therapy and related products, which would be a leader of the third industrial revolution in biomedicine and have broad prospects for future development.
With obvious strength in this field,Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)’s businesses are in line with the future trend and the outlook is also quite promising, indicating exponential growth potential in valuation.
However, the potential risks on deterioration of international relations and the concerns on CAR-T commercialization should not be neglected by investors.


Genscript Biotech (1548.HK) - The Strength and the Concerns

Porton Pharma Solutions / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Porton made a successful turnaround and the CGT business layout is also in the right direction. The US$217 million new order would improve the certainties of its 2022 performance.</li>
<li>The concerns on potential deterioration of international relations and the broken logic in CXO sector also apply to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/porton-pharma-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14201:1" rel="noopener">Porton Pharma Solutions (300363 CH)</a>, which should be aware of by investors.</li>
<li>So, there is a long way to go for Porton to truly get into the first tier. It may not be a good buying point currently considering the high valuation.</li>
</ul>


Porton made a successful turnaround and the CGT business layout is also in the right direction. The US$217 million new order would improve the certainties of its 2022 performance.
The concerns on potential deterioration of international relations and the broken logic in CXO sector also apply to Porton Pharma Solutions (300363 CH), which should be aware of by investors.
So, there is a long way to go for Porton to truly get into the first tier. It may not be a good buying point currently considering the high valuation.


Porton Pharma Solutions (300363.CH) - Not Easy to Get into the First Tier

<ul>
<li>For Pfizer,orders on COVID-19 vaccine and Paxlovid would generate over US$50 billion revenue in 2022. So whether Pfizer would pursue for new M&amp;A opportunities become the focus of the market.</li>
<li>The oral COVID-19 antivirals are a great opportunity for the development of Chinese API companies, improving the overall valuation. However, CXOs are actually the first to benefit from this market.</li>
<li>If the COVID mutates in a more transmissible direction, the valuation and forecast of related companies in this industrial chain needs readjustment.However, if it doesn’t, the logic would change again.</li>
</ul>


For Pfizer,orders on COVID-19 vaccine and Paxlovid would generate over US$50 billion revenue in 2022. So whether Pfizer would pursue for new M&amp;A opportunities become the focus of the market.
The oral COVID-19 antivirals are a great opportunity for the development of Chinese API companies, improving the overall valuation. However, CXOs are actually the first to benefit from this market.
If the COVID mutates in a more transmissible direction, the valuation and forecast of related companies in this industrial chain needs readjustment.However, if it doesn’t, the logic would change again.


Oral COVID-19 Antivirals and the Impact on China

China

Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd. is a China-based custom manufacturing services provider(CMO), serving the global pharmaceutical industry with custom and contract chemical development and manufacturing services from preclinical development to commercial supply.

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Porton Pharma Solutions (300363 CH)

Russia-Ukraine War: The Impact on China Healthcare

We analyzed the potential impact of Russia-Ukraine war on China healthcare industry including the delay of clinical trial projects in Ukraine,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH)- Interesting Points to Ponder Behind 2021 Preliminary Financial Data

We analyzed some important points behind 2021 preliminary financial data (declining DDSU, fair value change of financial assets, overseas...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Genscript Biotech (1548.HK) - The Strength and the Concerns

This insight analyzed Genscript's three largest segments (life-science services and products, CDMO, cell therapy), strength in CGT, and concerns on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang