IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> has increased the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> tender offer price by 4.1% to JPY2,800 and extended the offer period to 28 August. The price is final.</li>
<li>Kirin tried to get the required acceptances by refusing to bump and extending the offer period. However, these tactics failed, as the shares continued to trade above terms.</li>
<li>The Board twice asked Kirin to raise its offer higher than JPY2,800, but eventually recommended the revised offer. Nevertheless, the bump should be sufficient for Kirin to succeed. </li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) has increased the Fancl Corp (4921 JP) tender offer price by 4.1% to JPY2,800 and extended the offer period to 28 August. The price is final.
Kirin tried to get the required acceptances by refusing to bump and extending the offer period. However, these tactics failed, as the shares continued to trade above terms.
The Board twice asked Kirin to raise its offer higher than JPY2,800, but eventually recommended the revised offer. Nevertheless, the bump should be sufficient for Kirin to succeed. 


Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP) Relents and Bumps to JPY2,800

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>’s JPY8,620 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> closes on 29 July. The shares have traded above terms for 25 out of the 26 trading days.</li>
<li>MY.Alpha Management has amassed 10.3 million shares (8.51% ownership ratio) with several purchases above terms. MY.Alpha could catalyse other shareholders to rally against a light offer. </li>
<li>The emergence of MY.Alpha, the high volume above terms, peers re-rating, the required minority acceptance rate, and an offer unattractive to historical trading ranges increase the probability of a bump. </li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s JPY8,620 offer for Fancl Corp (4921 JP) closes on 29 July. The shares have traded above terms for 25 out of the 26 trading days.
MY.Alpha Management has amassed 10.3 million shares (8.51% ownership ratio) with several purchases above terms. MY.Alpha could catalyse other shareholders to rally against a light offer. 
The emergence of MY.Alpha, the high volume above terms, peers re-rating, the required minority acceptance rate, and an offer unattractive to historical trading ranges increase the probability of a bump. 


Fancl (4921 JP): Evaluating the Potential of Kirin (2503 JP) Offer Bump

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> announced the share alternative at an exchange ratio of 10 rollover shares for each offer share, subject to a cap of 5% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The share alternative option will help the offer and was likely required to get Pleasant Lake Partners’ support (3.25% of outstanding shares). There is minimal vocal opposition to the offer. </li>
<li>Irrevocables/Letters of support represent 49.83% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer and the share alternative facilitate meeting the minimum acceptance condition, which requires an 80% disinterested acceptance rate (ex. irrevocables).</li>
</ul>



L'Occitane (973 HK) announced the share alternative at an exchange ratio of 10 rollover shares for each offer share, subject to a cap of 5% of outstanding shares.
The share alternative option will help the offer and was likely required to get Pleasant Lake Partners’ support (3.25% of outstanding shares). There is minimal vocal opposition to the offer. 
Irrevocables/Letters of support represent 49.83% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer and the share alternative facilitate meeting the minimum acceptance condition, which requires an 80% disinterested acceptance rate (ex. irrevocables).


L’Occitane (973 HK): Share Alternative a Crucial Step Towards the Offer Being Declared Unconditional

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>’s tender offer of JPY2,690, a 42.7% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The timing looks opportunistic as Fancl's shares are down 20% YTD. The offer period is from 17 June to 29 July.</li>
<li>While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the offer price is light. </li>
</ul>



Fancl Corp (4921 JP) recommended Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s tender offer of JPY2,690, a 42.7% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The timing looks opportunistic as Fancl's shares are down 20% YTD. The offer period is from 17 June to 29 July.
While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the offer price is light. 


Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP)’s Light JPY2,690 Tender Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Reinold Geiger at HK$34.00, a 15.3% premium to the last close and a 30.8% premium to the undisturbed price (5 February).</li>
<li>The minimum acceptance condition is that the offeror holds at least 90% of the shares held by disinterested shareholders, which enables the offeror to exercise compulsory acquisition rights.</li>
<li>Irrevocable and letters of support to accept represent 37.96% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer (representing an all-time high) should facilitate the offer being declared unconditional.</li>
</ul>



L'Occitane (973 HK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Reinold Geiger at HK$34.00, a 15.3% premium to the last close and a 30.8% premium to the undisturbed price (5 February).
The minimum acceptance condition is that the offeror holds at least 90% of the shares held by disinterested shareholders, which enables the offeror to exercise compulsory acquisition rights.
Irrevocable and letters of support to accept represent 37.96% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer (representing an all-time high) should facilitate the offer being declared unconditional.


L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional VGO at HK$34

Japan

POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS INC. develops, manufactures and markets cosmetic products, centering in skincare  products. Under its multi-brand strategy, the Company holds nine cosmetic brands including POLA, prestige skincare brand, ORBIS, oil-free skincare brand, H2O PLUS and Jurlique.

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Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP)

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP) Relents and Bumps to JPY2,800

MY.Alpha has increased its shareholding from 10.3m (8.51% ownership ratio) to 11.6m (9.58%) primarily due to purchasing 1.1m shares at JPY2,794 on...

Arun George

Fancl (4921 JP): Evaluating the Potential of Kirin (2503 JP) Offer Bump

Kirin has extended the tender offer period from 29 July to 13 August (40 business days). Kirin believes the JPY2,690 offer sufficiently reflects...

Arun George

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP)’s Light JPY2,690 Tender Offer

The timing is opportunistic. While the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, it is light compared to historical trading ranges. Securing...

Arun George

L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional VGO at HK$34

The key condition is that the offeror holds at least 90% of the disinterested shares. An attractive offer (representing an all-time high) should...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP) Relents and Bumps to JPY2,800

MY.Alpha has increased its shareholding from 10.3m (8.51% ownership ratio) to 11.6m (9.58%) primarily due to purchasing 1.1m shares at JPY2,794 on...

Arun George

Fancl (4921 JP): Evaluating the Potential of Kirin (2503 JP) Offer Bump

Kirin has extended the tender offer period from 29 July to 13 August (40 business days). Kirin believes the JPY2,690 offer sufficiently reflects...

Arun George

L’Occitane (973 HK): Share Alternative a Crucial Step Towards the Offer Being Declared Unconditional

An attractive offer and the share alternative facilitate meeting the 90% minimum acceptance condition. This looks like a done deal. At the current...

Arun George

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP)’s Light JPY2,690 Tender Offer

The timing is opportunistic. While the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, it is light compared to historical trading ranges. Securing...

Arun George

L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional VGO at HK$34

The key condition is that the offeror holds at least 90% of the disinterested shares. An attractive offer (representing an all-time high) should...

Arun George